Gerrit Cole O/U 8.5 Strikeouts
Although Gerrit Cole (5-2, 2.03 ERA) is fourth among all pitchers in strikeouts (85) and second among qualified starters in strikeout rate (39.7 percent), he has not had his elite strikeout stuff in May. In two out of three starts this month, Cole has fanned seven or less. Yes, in the other one, he struck out 12. In his last start specifically, Cole had his worst outing of the year as he allowed a season-high five earned over five innings. What does all of this mean today for Cole’s strikeout figure against a White Sox team that strikes out at an about league-average rate? Nothing. This sport is unpredictable, don’t you know?
That said, the logic of this wager stems from the fact that I don’t see Cole having two bad outings in a row. I also think the man is due for a big strikeout game. In his six April starts, Cole stuck out a double-digit number of batters four times. Today, I think he will be able to pile up at least nine. Heck, if Jordan Montgomery could K them 11 times last night, what’s stopping Cole from getting at least 15?
Pick: Cole over 8.5 strikeouts (-120, DK)
Pirates at Atlanta O/U 0.5 First Inning Runs
If you’re the type to browse yesterday’s box scores, you’ve surely seen that Atlanta ravaged the Pirates last night by a score of 20-1. I will say, this game was your average 12-0 blowout before position player Wilmer Difo came on and allowed eight runs in the eighth inning (and somehow struck out Ronald Acuña Jr.!). Anytime a team scores 20 though, it must be brought to attention. Tonight, Atlanta will have the opportunity to score many more runs against Pirates’ starter Mitch Keller (2-5, 7.16 ERA).
Keller has been up and down all season. He has straight up followed a pattern of bad start good start in all eight of his outings this year. Today, Keller is due for a bad start. Also, the Pirates lead the league in allowing first-inning runs. Combining those two factors, I expect at least one run to be scored in the first inning.
Pick: over 0.5 first-inning runs (-143, DK)
Mets at Marlins Money Line
In this pitching matchup, we have Pablo López (1-3, 3.12 ERA) against a pitcher to be determined. At this moment, the Mets roster as a whole is heavily depleted due to injuries. The lineup specifically looks nothing like it did on Opening Day. My man Cameron Maybin was hitting third last night for the Mets. That surely wasn’t in the plans when this team was being constructed.
Having said that, it’s not like the Marlins have been electric offensively either. Their team wRC+ of 88 ranks 24th in baseball. In all honestly, this game might be a great one to slam the under 7.5 runs. That’s not my pick in this one though. I like the replacement level Mets to keep the magic going and find a way to win. I like their odds to do it even better.
Pick: Mets ML (+130, DK)
Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (13-25-1)
Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$1,227.88
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)