Best Bets of the Day – September 26th

Will Giancarlo Stanton make another baseball go bye-bye?

Playoff ramifications are high for a handful of Sunday’s MLB games. Of course, it’s sometimes more fun to wager on the games with lower actual stakes. The Kansas City-Detroit matinee is of little consequence … unless you have something on the line.

Let’s visit a division already wrapped up for two of today’s best bets before closing with a much more consequential Sunday Night Baseball matchup.


Royals at Tigers: O/U 9 Runs

Wily Peralta allowed one earned run over five combined starts earlier in the season, only to then surrender five to the Royals. When he followed by allowing six more runs to the Twins, everyone assumed the magic ended. Apparently not. He’s thrown two straight scoreless outings and permitted 11 earned runs in his last eight starts. That gives the 32-year-old sparkling 3.04 ERA in a breakout campaign worth celebrating.

But we don’t have to believe it will last. Peralta’s 5.8 K-BB% matches that of Carlos Martínez (6.23 ERA) and Zach Davies (5.78 ERA). Only six starting pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched have a lower mark, and John Gant (3.74) is the only one among them with an ERA below 4.50. In line with this discrepancy, Peralta has a 4.90 FIP and 5.14 SIERA that beckons regression.

On the other end of this pitching matchup, Kris Bubic hasn’t been able to run from his 5.39 FIP. Nevertheless, his 4.80 ERA is also lower than his 5.51 xERA. Lefties are slugging .528 against him, but righties have obtained a .352 OBP. His 2.84 ERA in September is Peralta-esque, as it comes with just 15 strikeouts to eight walks in 19 innings.

Nine of Detroit’s last 10 games have featured eight or fewer total runs, so the over is far from a lock. Yet there’s shootout potential between these two AL Central stragglers.

Pick: Over (-105 on DraftKings, -108 on FanDuel)


White Sox at Cleveland: Moneyline

Cleveland and the White Sox have split the first four games of a prolonged series. At nine wins apiece, the AL Central adversaries are also looking to settle the tab on the season’s stalemate. The White Sox are undoubtedly the better team, but that’s why these games are relatively meaningless for them. They clinched the AL Central and are unlikely to erase a four-game deficit behind the Astros to take home-field advantage for their probable first-round matchup. Perhaps that’s factored into them going 5-7 against the Angels, Rangers, Tigers, and Cleveland in the last two weeks.

That creates an interesting opportunity to back Cleveland. The squad is a considerable underdog, particularly on DraftKings, despite playing host Sunday afternoon. The White Sox are 38-41 on the road this season. When forming this line, the oddsmakers surely had flashbacks of Triston McKenzie getting lit up for seven runs by the Royals on Monday. However, he was on the roll of his life before that debacle, posting a 1.76 ERA, 48 strikeouts, and five walks in his previous seven starts.

Lucas Giolito is also back to ace form, recording a 2.97 ERA and 1.04 WHIP after the All-Star break. Considering Cleveland’s dire lack of offensive firepower behind José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes, this bet hinges on McKenzie tossing a bounce-back gem. Given how exceptional he looked before Monday, it’s a solid bet at DraftKings’ +145. You can also diminish your risk (and reward) by taking Cleveland +1.5 for -115.

Pick: Cleveland (+145 on DraftKings, +136 on FanDuel)


Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a HR

No hitter in baseball is more dangerous than a locked-in Giancarlo Stanton. He showed that yesterday by demolishing a game-winning grand slam over the Fenway Park bleachers:

Stanton has crushed seven home runs in his last 13 games. Since the start of August, he’s batting .309/.365/.624 with 17 long balls in 200 plate appearances. He only trails teammate Aaron Judge in average exit velocity entering Sunday’s pivotal showdown against the Red Sox. Stanton, who boasts a career .615 slugging percentage and 167 wRC+ against southpaws, will square off against the left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. While Rodriguez has registered a 3.45 FIP and 3.67 xERA underneath his less sterling 4.97 ERA, opponents are slugging .448 against him.

Despite his recent tear, Stanton has the same odds of going yard as Joey Gallo (a lefty) on DraftKings and as Gary Sánchez on FanDuel. That’s because of past shortcomings against Rodriguez; he’s 1-for-14 with a single and eight strikeouts in this head-to-head matchup. Someone interested in this data would much prefer putting their money on Gleyber Torres, who has a 1.354 OPS in 27 plate appearances against Rodriguez. As you can tell, this writer isn’t one of those people who cares about such a small sample size.

With my season net line in the red, this is the perfect opportunity to pick Stanton as my champion to swing for the fences. Just be sure to wager responsibly on such an all-or-nothing outcome.

Pick: Yes (+330 on DraftKings, +310 on FanDuel)


Andrew Gould Overall Record: 37-40 (One Push)

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): -$110.73


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Andrew Gould

Andrew is Pitcher List's DFS Manager who also covers MLB and NFL for FantasyPros and Bleacher Report. He placed second in FantasyPros' MLB accuracy ratings in 2016 and fifth in 2018.

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