Rays at Marlins O/U 7.5
Ryan Yarbrough, or the fratty pirate as he is affectionately referred to, has perhaps quietly become a master at inducing weak contact. Over the past three seasons, the lefty has surrendered a hard contact rate in the top 3%. He’s also held a sparkling 4% BB rate over his past 197.1 IP. That seems like a fairly decent recipe for neutralizing the opposing offense. And you don’t need me to wax poetic about the Rays and their singular ability to assemble bullpens. On the other side, the home team Marlins will be going with their own exceptional starter in Pablo Lopez, who last year excelled to the tune of a 3.16 xERA and .274 xwOBA allowed. Set in the N.L. backdrop of expansive LoanDepot Park, tonight’s contest would appear to have all the makings of a tightly contested low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-114 DK)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Run Line
To his credit, Merrill Kelly pitched well last season with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across limited action before being shutdown early and undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. However, when we got a longer look at Kelly back in 2019, we saw a pitcher that was more or less league-average as his K-BB% of 13% and xERA of 5.41 can attest to. He’ll be tasked with taming a Padres lineup that hit the fourth most home-runs in baseball last season, just ahead of the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, who finished second from the bottom in home runs last year with 58, will be facing 2018 Cy Young award winner Blake Snell as he is set to make his debut for his new club. On paper, there’s just a sizable gap on both sides of the ball in this matchup in favor of the Padres.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (-107 DK)
Dodgers Total Runs
Words could not begin to describe how far apart these two teams are and yet it was the Rockies who came away with the win yesterday afternoon. As they say, results may vary. Eight runs is an ambitious projection for any team, but with an offense like the Dodgers who paced all of baseball last season with home runs (118) and runs scored (349) set to the backdrop of Coors against a pitcher in Antonio Senzatela who has managed just a 4.7% K-BB% overs his last 198 innings, it’s not too hard to imagine seeing crooked numbers in the visitor’s run column this evening. The Dodgers’ offensive upside should be bolstered by the addition of Will Smith, who sat out of the opener.
Pick: Dodgers Over 7.5 ( +108 DK)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 0-0-0
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)