A short slate on Thursday but the good news is plenty of day baseball! Makes the work day just a little more tolerable. Today we focus on a few prop bets that the novice bettor might not realize are available:
Cubs @ Pirates ML/Total Runs O/U 9.5
Nothing epitomizes self-loathing quite like being a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, but hey let’s make a little money while we suffer. The Buccos have been outscored by a combined 20 runs in their last two games and it could easily be more, somehow. The fact of the matter is this was the worst team in baseball before Ke’Bryan Hayes went on the IL and Gregory Polanco forgot how to hit a baseball, which is why their regular-season wins total was at a paltry 54.5. Betting against Pittsburgh is a safe move on any and every day.
Before losing five games in a row, the Pirates’ lone win on the season came Opening Day against the Cubs, who have not been much better quite frankly. Neither one of these teams has scored over 5 runs in a game this year and both teams find themselves in the bottom 10 in baseball in wRC+ (PIT 82, CHC 57). Jake Arrieta will always live rent-free in the heads of Pirates hitters after his 2015 NL Wild Card Game mastery and Tyler Anderson somehow managed to get 22 whiffs from the free-swinging Cubs lineup when they faced off on Saturday. With the wind blowing in at about 10 MPH at pitcher-friendly PNC Park, runs will be scarce for both of these teams. FanDuel is offering a Cubs win and under 9.5 runs combo at +200 and I will take those odds all day long.
Pick: CUBS ML/UNDER 9.5 (+200 FD)
Royals @ White Sox Total Runs After 5 Innings O/U 4.5
The weather is going to dictate how this one goes, as there is potential for a late start or even a PPD. If this game gets played, it is going to be a slog, especially early on. Lance Lynn didn’t quite have the first start he was hoping for against the Angels, but still managed to escape without giving up an ER. The Royals’ offense got off to a scorching start this season, scoring 25 runs in their first 2 games. They have come back down to earth, scoring just 8 runs in their past 3 games.
The White Sox potent offense has suffered several injuries and suddenly the lineup is significantly less intimidating. Hard to ignore a 40.50 ERA but I think you have to here with Brad Keller, who was rocked in his first outing against Texas. He is a much better pitcher than that and will have an opportunity to bounce back strong against a White Sox lineup that has been better against LHP since 2020. The total runs for this game is set at 8, which scares me a little bit. In situations where I like the SP in a game against decent offenses, I like to just take the under on the first 5 innings when I know that the SP will have their best stuff.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 (-124 DK, -132 FD)
Mariners @ Twins Pitcher To Record A Win
A similar but slightly better weather situation as the Royals and White Sox game, this game pits one of my favorite pitchers for 2021 in Jose Berrios against one of my least favorite in Marco Gonzales. Tough to start as season much better than Berrios did, throwing 6 no-hit innings with 12 K’s against the Brewers. Averaging a career-best 95.1 MPH on his fastball, Berrios was simply dominant the entire way and would’ve cruised to a victory if not for the equally as dominant Corbin Burnes.
Gonzales on the other hand, averaged a career-worst 87.6 MPH on his fastball in allowing 8 hits and 5 ER against the Giants on Opening Day. I just simply don’t think Gonzales is a particularly enticing pitcher and the power RH bats in the Twins lineup (Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton) are going to be chomping at the bit to step in the box against that fastball. While this makes me want to take the Twins at -1.5 (+102), there is the slight chance that Gonzales finds a way to avoid hard contact, something he has done in the past when I thought he was going to be shelled. So just in case this game remains close, I am going to bank on Berrios pitching fairly deep into the game against a weak Seattle lineup and picking up the win. Not to mention you are getting much better odds with this prop bet than taking the Minnesota run line.
Pick: Jose Berrios To Record A Win (DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 1-2-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Nice day dude.