Bets of the Day – July 1st

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Wow, what an insane day of baseball we had on Wednesday. I thought maybe MLB as a collective would just take a day off to absorb all that happened but we soldier on with another full day of the greatest game ever created. After a brutal 0-3 its time to actually supply you loyal readers with some winners for Thursday, so here we go:


Rangers @ Athletics Lead After 5 Innings


Sean Manaea has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2021. The 29-year old has been absolutely dominant in the month of June and he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a start in any of his last 7 starts. On Thursday he gets a Rangers lineup that has experienced significant struggles against LHP this year (.296 wOBA, 87 wRC+). Opposing him on the mound is Dane Dunning, who has shown flashes this season but overall has been very hittable, allowing a 41.3 HardHit%.

The only knock against Manaea lately has been that he has only made it through 6 innings in two of his last four starts and he didn’t pitch into the 7th in any of those starts. I expect that Athletics to jump out to an early lead backing Manaea and in an effort to avoid any bullpen mishaps we are going to focus on the first 5 innings.

Pick: Athletics Lead (-122 DK)


Padres @ Reds Total Runs O/U 9


Two of the best offenses in baseball, the Padres and Reds combined for 12 runs in a rain-shortened 6 inning game yesterday. Assuming they get a full 9 inning affair in on Thursday, these two teams should approach that total again. While Luis Castillo has turned his season around a bit over the last month, I am still not 100% sold on him being back to his former ace self. He still allowed 6 hits and 3 runs to the Padres on June 20th and that was in the friendly confines of Petco Park. Pitching at Great American Ball Park is a different animal, especially with Tommy Pham and Fernando Tatis, Jr. tearing the cover off the ball lately at the top of San Diego’s lineup.

Ryan Weathers steps into the rotation spot vacated by the injured Dinelson Lamet for the Padres. Weathers’ fluctuating role with San Diego might not be benefitting him, as he has allowed 7 ER in 10 IP over last two starts, which came earlier this month. Cincinnati can hit home runs with the best of them, and a pair of All-Star-caliber OFs in Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker will make life hard on the young lefty. Expect more fireworks from these two offenses today an over hit for the second consecutive game.

Pick: OVER 9 (-121 DK)


Giants @ Diamondbacks Total Runs O/U 9


San Francisco has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season, but the team has struggled offensively recently, failing to score more than 2 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Arizona has simply been one of the worst teams offensively all season long (.297 wOBA, 86 wRC+) and that has remained the case over the last two weeks (.280 wOBA, 75 wRC+). Johnny Cueto is coming off 7 shutout innings against Oakland and the 35-year old continues to find ways to be effective. His counterpart, Merrill Kelly, has pitched tremendously over his last two starts (13 IP, 1 ER) and he also has a quality start on his record at home against the Giants this season. An over/under of 9 is simply too high for these two teams tonight.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-117 DK, -120 FD)


Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 33-35-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$803.07


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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