Bets of the Day — July 30

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Reds at Mets Moneyline


I was a little surprised by this line and expected it to be closer to a pick ‘em. For Carlos Carrasco, this will be his first start as a Met and first since last year’s postseason. On the year, the Reds offense has been productive, tied for fifth in team wOBA at .327 with the Giants. So this is going to be a tough first test for Carrasco who is coming back from a right hamstring injury and he should be on a pitch count.

The Reds will counter with Sonny Gray who could see some better results ahead. Most notably he’s allowed a .332 wOBA as opposed to just a .301 xwOBA. His xERA of 3.82 compared to his 4.50 ERA also indicates that he has deserved better results. Gray’s K-BB% this year of 19.7% is right in line with his prior two seasons in which he combined for a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 231.1 IP.

Meanwhile, the Met offense ranks just 18th with a .308 team wOBA. All things considered, the Mets might not have as strong of an advantage here as the line indicates. There’s some value in backing the Reds tonight. 

Pick: Reds (+120 DraftKings)


Jameson Taillon Total Strikeouts


For the year, the Marlins are tied with the Pirates for the third-worst team wOBA at .297. And they’ve got a 25.9% team K rate, that’s fourth-worst, just ahead of the Tigers. Losing Starling Marte should not help their cause either. Based on the matchup, this is a good spot for Jameson Taillon to have a ceiling sort of a game.

In his last outing against a much tougher Red Sox offense, Taillon managed to complete seven innings and get up to 100 pitches. And while he only struck out four, he did have a 30% CSW. Both his slider and curveball returned a CSW of over 30% too which is a good sign for things to come in the strikeout department.

Given that we’re seeing him go deeper into games of late (100 pitches in two of last four and 6 IP in three of four), you should like Taillon’s chances of getting six K’s against a weak offense in the Marlins. 

Pick: Over 5.5 (+110 DraftKings) 


Mariners at Rangers Run Line


The Rangers have been a disaster offensively all season with a .292 team wOBA on the year. And if you like to play with arbitrary samples, they’re at a .267 mark over the last month. Second-worst in that span are the Athletics at .293. Not good. And I suspect that losing Joey Gallo will not help matters.

Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert has been nothing short of fantastic for the Mariners this year. Yes, I know he’s coming off of a dud his last time out against the A’s but overall he’s posted a 23.2% K-BB over 12 starts.

I like Gilbert and the Mariners, who have their eyes set on a potential postseason, to get back on track tonight and pull away against a Rangers squad that’s packed it in and looking to next year. 

Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+125 DraftKings) 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 24-26-0


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club, Ryan Amore has been writing things at Pitcher List since 2019. He grew up watching the Yankees and fondly remembers Charlie Hayes catching the final out of the '96 WS. He appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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