Bets of the Day – June 21st

Kyle Stanzel highlights Monday's best bets around baseball.

With another short Monday slate, we get creative with a few prop bets and a parlay between two undervalued players:


Cedric Mullins Total Hits O/U 0.5 & Frankie Montas Total Ks O/U 5.5


Sometimes with such a short slate, you have to get a bit creative, especially with your parlays. I am extremely surprised that DraftKings is offering Cedric Mullins total hits at just over/under 0.5 as opposed to 1.5. One of the best hitters in baseball this year and a lock for the All-Star Game, Mullins has hit especially well over the past week (215 wRC+). Jake Odorizzi is certainly not the most intimidating pitcher in the game and mustering one hit should be a problem for Mullins. However, at -215 you are going to need to pair this with something to get any real value.

Frankie Montas‘ strikeout prop is also a little off to me at only 5.5, considering his recent starts and the team he is facing. Montas has struck out at least six batters in five of his last six starts, with the one outlying start being at Coors Field. Additionally, Montas has struck out at least six in each of his last three starts against the Rangers. Speaking of the Texas offense, while they are showing improvement they still reside in the top 10 in baseball in K% (25.1%). Montas struck out eight batters in each of his last two starts against the Angels (23.0 K%, 22nd) and the Royals (21.8 K%, 29th). Both Mullins and Montas are extremely undervalued in these spots and together they should set you up with a nice payout.

Pick: Mullins Over 0.5 Hits/Montas Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+135 DK)


Astros @ Orioles Lead After 3 Innings


Poor Keegan Akin. Everybody pray for the 26-year old on Monday because he is going to need it against Houston. The Astros effectiveness against LHP has been well documented here, but on top of that, they also have four hitters in the top 30 in wOBA over the last two weeks in Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, and Yordan Alvarez. Akin allowed 8 ER over 5.1 IP against the Indians in his last start on June 16th. For reference, the Indians .298 wOBA and 88 wRC+ against LHP compared to Houston’s .347 wOBA and 126 wRC+. While DraftKings certainly is expecting the Astros to win the game, there is value in grabbing the Astros to lead after 3 innings. This lineup should waste no time in getting to Akin and I believe in Odorizzi to manage an Orioles lineup that is much better against LHP.

Pick: Astros Lead After 3 Innings (+102 DK, +122 FD)


Aaron Civale Total Ks O/U 5.5


There is no more enigmatic pitcher in baseball when it comes to strikeouts than Aaron Civale. After striking out eleven Mariners on June 11th, Civale followed it up by striking out just two batters against Baltimore on June 16th. Civale’s strikeout numbers on the year, in general, are down from previous years (19.3 K% in 2021, 22.1 K% in 2020) and I think he is closer to the eleven strikeout pitcher than the two strikeout one. What is really driving me towards this over, aside from the generous odds at +118, is a Cubs lineup that leads baseball in K% over the last two weeks at 28.1%. Young Marlins starter Zach Thompson was able to strike out seven Cubs in just 4 IP yesterday, so I am confident in Civale’s ability to get to six.

Pick: OVER 5.5 (+118 DK)


Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 31-30-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$1,036.07


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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