Yankees at Red Sox Alternate Total Runs
It’s anecdotal on my part, but this game just feels like an impending slugfest like one of those reminiscent of the mid-2000s where the Yankees could never seem to get either Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz out with runners on if their lives depended on it. Or the bases empty for that matter. Now in typical baseball fashion here comes the impending 3-2 pitcher’s duel. Anyways, Martín Pérez has some pretty drastic splits against lefties he’s effective with an xwOBA allowed of .301 over the last two seasons. Against righties though, that number jumps to .349. He’ll basically face nothing but righty power tonight against the Yankees. On the other side, while Domingo Germán has been very effective with a .316 xwOBA allowed and 4.04 xERA, his K rate is fairly modest at just 22% on the year. This Boston lineup has been productive this year with a .325 wOBA, sixth in baseball, so they are certainly more than capable, especially considering the backdrop that is Fenway Park, where runs can happen in a blink.
I also want to mention the Astros’ alternate run line (HOU -3, +120 DraftKings). That’s one I’m very intrigued by as the mismatch between the Astros lineup and the ghost of Wily Peralta coupled with Framber Valdez is borderline silly. However, the weather in Detroit looks gnarly so I’m not going to avoid that game.
Pick: Over 11 (+118 DraftKings)
Blue Jays Alternate Run Line
It’s no secret that Matt Harvey is on his last legs as he limps into tonight’s bout with a 7.80 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 17.5%, and .369 xwOBA allowed. Facing a Blue Jays offense that has baseball’s second-best wOBA at .333 and just welcomed George Springer back into the fold, this is just a mismatch of the highest magnitude. Alek Manoah is a young pitcher of repute and has shown some glimpse already with a strong 18.2% K-BB% through his first five starts. He’s coming off of a rough start against these same Orioles allowing four home runs but that really seems like a sort of flukey type of outburst considering the Orioles’ team wOBA of .301 ranks 20th on the year. There’s some potential value in the Blue Jay’s alternate run line.
Pick: TOR -2.5 (+115 DraftKings)
Corbin Burnes Total Strikeouts
I think we can take advantage of the Road Rockies here. At home, in the safe confines of Coor’s Field their team K rate is at 20.3%, the second-lowest in that split. On the road that number jumps way up to 26.8%, the third-highest. Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes has ascended into one of baseball’s premier strikeout artists, among starters with a minimum of 60 IP, his CSW % of 35.9% ranks first, and his K rate of 39.6% trails only the exalted Jacob deGrom.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-124 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 19-16-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)