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Bets of the Day — May 7

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Yankees vs Nationals Run Line

 

After a tepid start, the Yankee offense has come alive recently. Granted the Tigers coming to town helps, regardless over the past two weeks of play lead baseball in team wOBA at .348.

This certainly looks like a rough spot for the visiting pitcher Patrick Corbin. Through five starts, Corbin’s K-BB% sits at just 3.8% while his swinging K rate of 9.4% is the lowest it’s been since way back in 2016. He’s also surrendered a loud xwOBA of .416 while his xERA stands at 7.27 for the year. Going back to 2019, the lefty has shown a pretty wide platoon split allowing a .326 wOBA and .183 ISO to RHB as opposed to marks of .265 and .085 respectively to LHB. So it would appear a matchup against a lineup loaded with power righties, including a surging Giancarlo Stanton, doesn’t bode well for Corbin.

Jameson Taillon, on the other hand, is off to an excellent start with a 25.3% K-BB% that is easily a career-best. That will regress some of course, but the point being he is pitching very well heading into tonight’s contest. The Yankee bullpen has been on point so far too as their relievers have combined for a 2.59 ERA (3rd best). The return of Juan Soto (PH appearance yesterday) would of course help the Nats’ cause, but I think the Yankees do have a very strong advantage overall in this game. 

Pick: NYY -1.5 (+108 DraftKings)

 

Red Sox at Orioles Run Line

 

Eduardo Rodríguez has been phenomenal to start the season. Through five starts he’s put up a 25.8% K-BB% to go along with a .276 xwOBA and 2.81 xERA. So he should be able to stifle the Oriole’s offense which has thus far mustered just a .290 team wOBA, third from the bottom.

He’ll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who has been decent to his credit but I do think he’s been the beneficiary of some positive variance. Basically, it comes down to not missing any bats at this stage as his swinging K rate stands at 7.4% to go along with a .344 xwOBA.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, so far, the best offense in baseball in terms of team wOBA at .337 for the year. It’s amazing what a resurgent J.D. Martinez can do for a lineup. This comes down to the Red Sox having a strong advantage both offensively and at starting pitcher for tonight’s contest.

Pick: BOS -1.5 ( +104 DraftKings)

 

Josh Donaldson to Hit a Home Run

 

Josh Donaldson is off to a sort of ho-hum start hitting .262 with two home runs. However, his underlying metrics are excellent, as his xwOBA for the year is at .417 to go along with a 15.1% barrel rate. His plate skills remain strong too as his K rate is at just 12.9% with an 11.4% BB rate.

He’ll face the lefty Tarik Skubal who undoubtedly has long-term potential but has, like many young pitchers do, struggled with command and control evidence being a 13.5% BB rate and .458 xwOBA.

Donaldson, who sat out yesterday’s game for rest, owns a career .401 wOBA and 157 wRC+ against lefties for his career. I like Donaldson’s chances here hitting second in front of Nelson Cruz (who isn’t a bad bet either). He’ll also have the benefit of being on the road and facing what has been, so far at least, a dreadful Tigers bullpen whose relievers have combined for a 6.69 ERA (worst). 

Pick: YES (+380 DraftKings) 

 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 7-8-0

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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