Bets of the Day — September 17

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Josiah Gray Total Strikeouts


Yes, Josiah Gray’s last three starts have been awful, but I like tonight as a potential bounce-back spot for the rookie. For as much as he’s struggled of late, we know that Gray has a ton of bat missing upside. Through nine starts he’s returned a fantastic 14.4% SwStr rate. The one thing that sticks out with Gray is that he’s also been erratic with a 10.8% walk rate. That’s unlike him though if you consider his minor league numbers — he’s never been above 8.2% at any stop, and that was way back in rookie ball in 2018 when he was with the Reds. The point being, I think his efficiency should improve. This is a great matchup for him today as the Rockies team wOBA on the road this year is .277, ranking dead last. Their team K rate also jumps to 25.5% in that split, the fourth highest in the league.


Pick: Over 5.5 (+105 DraftKings)


Blue Jays vs Twins Alternate Run Line


These are just two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Twins are playing out the string while the Jays are flying toward a playoff run after they brought their brooms to Yankee Stadium last week. For the Twins, Michael Pineda is slowly getting his pitch count back up after a long layoff. He’s been decent, but I do think he’s overachieving some based on his 4.87 xERA and .332 xwOBA allowed. Meanwhile, the Jays have been the best offense in baseball by wOBA at .341, the Astros being second at .337. And that’s without George Springer for a large part of the year. Hyun Jin Ryu is the one part of this that I don’t feel great about as he’s been up and down a lot this year. Case in point, a dominating start at Yankee Stadium followed by an absolute dud against the O’s. Still, I like the Jays to continue to assert themselves in the playoff race as they face an inferior Twins team at home.

Pick: Blue Jays -2.5 (+135 DraftKings) 


White Sox at Rangers Alternate Run Line


I’m not sure there has been a more terrifying and yet thrilling pitcher to have on your fantasy roster this year than Dylan CeaseHis last start was a wreck. But let’s focus on the broader picture, he has a fantastic 21.2% K-BB rate over 151.1 IP this year while holding opposing batters to a .296 xwOBA. Tonight he’ll face a Rangers squad that has fallen to dead last in team wOBA at .291 so you have to like his chances at pitching well tonight.

And hey, on the other side we get a chance to roll with the White Sox offense against an average type of southpaw in Taylor HearnHe’s allowed a .344 xwOBA to RHB along with just a modest 20.1% K rate. Tonight he’ll be challenged by a White Sox lineup that’s now locked and loaded after getting their leadoff man Tim Anderson back from the IL.


Pick: White Sox -2.5 (+125 DraftKings) 


Ryan Amore Overall Record: 33-35-0


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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