One of the most clutch postseason moments in recent memory occurred during game 3 of the National League Wild Card Series last season, when Pete Alonso stepped up to the plate against Devin Williams, down 2 runs with 1 out in the top of the 9th inning. Two outs away from elimination, Alonso took Williams deep to the opposite field giving the Mets the lead and forever etching his place in Mets history.
Between his postseason heroics, stellar regular season performance, and fondness for participating in the Home Run Derby, Alonso has been arguably the face of the New York Mets franchise since making his Major League debut in the 2019 season. After the conclusion of the 2024 season, Alonso reached free agency for the first time, however, he was not able to find a suitor until the end of the offseason, when he signed a two-year contract (with a player option for 2026) to return to the New York Mets. Since re-signing with the Mets, Alonso has been utterly dominant at the plate, producing a career-high in wRC+, while already surpassing the fWAR he accumulated over 162 games played last season, with 2.2 fWAR through just 38 games.
As shown by the table above, Alonso has improved in nearly every major offensive category in 2025, resulting in Alonso producing the 2nd-highest wRC+ among qualified hitters to start the season. This article will take a look at the changes that Alonso made to his offensive profile over the offseason that have led to his dominant start to the 2025 season, and attempt to assess how these changes will affect his free agency outlook moving forward.
Approach Changes
First, let’s take a look at the changes that Alonso has made to his plate discipline to start the 2025 season. Throughout his Major League career, Alonso has been regarded to possess generally average plate discipline ability, with his chase rates and walk rates typically hovering slightly above league average. To start the 2025 season, Alonso has made a slight adjustment to his approach at the plate, which has led him to improve his walk rate and tap into more power by swinging at better pitches.
As shown by the table above, Alonso has been swinging at slightly fewer pitches out of the strike zone and slightly more pitches in the strike zone, while keeping his overall swing rate constant, so far this season. When analyzing a player’s year-over-year change in chase rate, I typically look at a player’s overall swing rate to determine whether a player actually made an improvement in their pitch recognition skills, or simply became more passive at the plate. With a corresponding increase in Z-Swing%, it appears that Alonso has made a conscious effort this season to make better swing decisions, which has paid off for him so far this season, with his walk rate increasing from 10.1% in 2024 to 15.4% in 2025. This change in approach has allowed Alonso to swing at more pitches he knows he can produce damage on, likely contributing to his 2.9% increase in contact rate and 1.1% decrease in swinging strike rate so far this season.
While these slight changes in swing decision ability have played a contributing role in Alonso’s improved offensive production in 2025, it is interesting to note that Alonso’s Zone% has remained relatively constant from last season. Throughout his career, Alonso has averaged a 47.4% zone rate, and pitchers have become more likely to throw him pitches located in the strike zone in recent seasons, with Alonso facing a 49.7% zone rate in 2024 and a 48.7% zone rate in 2025. Given Alonso’s offensive dominance to start the season, it appears likely that Alonso will start receiving more pitches out of the strike zone as the season progresses, and whether or not he will be able to continue laying these pitches off will be the leading indicator as to whether he has truly improved his swing decision ability. If Alonso can maintain this improved approach throughout the entirety of the season, then it would represent an important evolution in his offensive profile.
Batted Ball Profile
While Alonso’s slight improvements in plate discipline and swing decision ability have been contributing factors to his early-season offensive dominance, Alonso has also improved his ability to hit for power in 2025, significantly improving his level of offensive production. Since his days as a prospect, Alonso has always been known for displaying top-of-the-scale raw power, however, Alonso has made further improvements to his bat speed and hard-hit ability, improving his batted ball profile, and raising his overall level of offensive production.
As mentioned earlier, Alonso has always hit the ball hard throughout his professional career, however, Alonso increased his average bat speed from 75.2 MPH in 2024, to 76.4 MPH in 2025 which, when combined with an improved ability to “square up” the baseball, has led to a significant increase in Hard Hit%, Barrel%, and EV50 this season. Hitting the ball hard leads to more offensive production, and Alonso’s ability to improve his exit velocities compared to last season has been a large driver of his early-season success.
Alonso’s BABIP has also spiked this season, from .276 in 2024 to .360 in 2025. While a .360 BABIP will likely not be maintained over the course of a full season, the improved hard-hit ability that Alonso has displayed so far this season makes it likely that more balls in play will fall for base hits, and it would not come as a surprise if his full-season BABIP runs closer to .300 this season than it has previously in his career. Alonso has also improved his pull air rate this season, from 18.0% in 2024 to 22.0% in 2025. Pulling the ball in the air is important because these batted balls are hit to the shortest dimensions of the ballpark and tend to travel farther, particularly important for power hitters like Alonso. This increase in Pull Air% represents a more optimized batted ball profile for Alonso this season, allowing him to maximize damage on pitches he can drive for power. When combined with his improvements in swing decision ability, the improved batted ball profile that Alonso has displayed to start the season has been a major contributor to his early-season offensive success.
Looking Ahead
To begin the 2025 season, Alonso has slightly improved offensively in numerous categories across his offensive profile, with his significant improvements in bat speed and squared-up ability driving his scorching hot start to the season, however, it will be interesting to see how well he adapts if/when pitchers begin to throw him more pitches out of the strike zone. While Alonso has certainly “quieted his skeptics” to begin the 2025 season, it is difficult to definitively determine whether or not these changes to his offensive profile alter his free agency outlook moving forward.
Organizations across Major League Baseball have largely determined that older first basemen are high-risk free agent signings, with Freddie Freeman being the only first baseman over the age of 30 to sign a $100M+ free agent contract since the 2020 season. This lack of value placed on older first basemen largely comes down to the defensive value of the position and the aging curve of offensive players. Since first base is the lowest position on the defensive spectrum given the lack of range and athleticism required to play the position, there is a large amount of pressure for first basemen to perform offensively, as this is essentially their only way of generating value to their team via wins above replacement. Given that offensive players typically decline past the age of 30, this makes signing an older first baseman a particularly risky maneuver, since there is little value to fall back on if/when the bat regresses. Recent free agent deals for aging first basemen such as José Abreu have further reinforced teams’ hesitancy to commit long-term to the position.
These aging concerns are likely what led to a wide discrepancy in the contract demands of Alonso and what teams were offering him over the past offseason. Reports indicate that Alonso’s representation was seeking a free agent contract well over $100M this past offseason, while Alonso ultimately signed for 2 years and $54M, a wide discrepancy. While Alonso has made some impressive adjustments to his offensive approach so far this season, it is difficult to determine whether his free agency outlook has changed much from last offseason. Of course, it is too early to make this determination definitively (as we do not know what Alonso’s end-of-season metrics will look like), however, the concerns regarding Alonso’s impending regression will likely persist.
As mentioned earlier, offensive players typically regress past the age of 30, and recent research by Tom Tango suggests that bat speed declines rapidly after a player’s age 31 season. Given the fact that Alonso will be 31 to begin next season, there is certainly a legitimate question to be asked as to whether Alonso will be able to maintain the bat speed increase he has experienced to begin the season long-term. If his offensive production regresses to below the level he displayed last season, then Alonso would be a ~115 wRC+ first baseman producing less than 2.0 fWAR per year. Of course, on the other hand, Alonso could retain this level of offensive production moving forward, not regress until age 33 or 34, and provide either his new team or the Mets with a couple more peak seasons.
This range of outcomes speaks to the difficulty of evaluating and predicting the future production of first basemen, especially when they are approaching their free agent seasons, as first basemen can contribute tremendous value with their offensive abilities, however, possess the risk of providing little value when their offensive abilities inevitably decline. Ultimately, Alonso represents both the allure and the volatility of the modern slugging first baseman, capable of anchoring a lineup when everything clicks, but vulnerable to a rapid decline in value once offensive regression begins. Regardless of his uncertain free agent outlook, Alonso projects to be a force in the Mets lineup for the remainder of the season, as the team seeks to once again make a deep postseason run.
Photos by Icon Sports Wire and Wikimedia Commons | By Carlos Leano
