On the surface, Ceddanne Rafaela’s 2025 season looks like nothing worthy of an article. Underwhelming, at least, for being a so-called breakout candidate. The timid .245/.298/.367/.665 slash line is right on par with his career averages, the chase and whiff rates are still sky-high, he doesn’t walk much, and he’s exclusively been a positive value on defense for a majority of the year. So what makes me say he’s going to break out, and in a big way? Let’s dive right in…
Background Info
Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela is a dynamic glove-first prospect out of Curacao. The 24-year-old signed with the Boston Red Sox in July of 2017 and quietly rose up rankings thanks to his stellar glove, athleticism, and ability to hit for average in the lower levels. By 2021, he had finally been put on the map as MLB Pipeline’s 28th-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system. His stock skyrocketed ever since, finishing back-to-back seasons skipping multiple levels all the way to the big leagues.
In fact, Boston loved Rafaela so much, they handed him an eight-year, $50 million contract extension with a $16 million club option before he even graduated from rookie status.
However, that’s when the offense started to come under question. Chase and whiff rates were always a minor concern, but Boston loved the hit tool and has worked with guys like this before — a raw superstar like Rafael Devers, for example. But for Rafaela, it just wasn’t working. He was turning in egregious numbers, as seen below:
| Chase% | Whiff% | K% | BB% | |
| 2023 | 39% | 30% | 32% | 4% |
| 2024 | 46% | 33% | 26% | 3% |
Yet, the defense was (and has remained) elite. He posted 12 DRS, 5 OAA, and 6 FRV in just 631.1 innings in centerfield while splitting time as the starting shortstop and second baseman after Trevor Story went down with what doctors figured was a season-ending injury.
Boston, especially Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow, loved the defense but acknowledged they needed more production out of the bat. So, they decided they’d switch things up a bit. Rafaela agreed to go train with “J.D. Martinez’s people,” as I reported here per manager Alex Cora during spring training.
Those “people” in question? Team Sosa Baseball, based in Hialeah, Florida. And the end-goal? Control the strike zone and get stronger. Rafaela came into Red Sox camp as one of 10-15 players who gained a notable amount of muscle in the offseason, and the strike zone work did wonders during spring at-bats. In 2024, Rafaela ended the year with just six walks over his last eighty-five games and none from August 10th to the end of the year (35 consecutive games). He walked six times in just fourteen spring exhibitions this season, and get this, struck out only three times.
Now, it’s only spring. But fans were really excited to see a budding two-way star like Rafaela take the next steps towards reaching his potential. That’s when the regular season started…
2025 Season
Rafaela really struggled out of the gate. All of a sudden, those offseason changes went out the window. Instead of seeing more pitches and working deeper counts like he did all spring, he was chasing, whiffing, and being unproductive early and often. There was a time when fans wanted him sent to the bench, optioned back to Triple-A Worcester, or worse, designated for assignment. The silver lining for him was the defense. He was and remains the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, at least according to his CF-leading 8 DRS entering play today.
But is it all his fault? Actually, no. Rafaela slipped in the beginning of the year, but regained his ground and started to resort to seeing more pitches. The swing decisions weren’t quite there yet, but they were improving; the strikeout rate dropped significantly (-7%), he was barreling the ball far more (13%) than he did in years prior, and increased his Avg EV by over 5 mph. Unfortunately, he’s been getting an insane amount of batted ball luck against him, as you can see below:
Those, paired with a .240 BABIP through the first two months of the season, simply isn’t a recipe for success.
Turning A Page
Results have started to pour in for Rafaela in the month of May, and Sox fans are ecstatic.
It’s a credit to his plate discipline improving tremendously. He’s swinging slightly less more often, but the strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and CSW% are all down; the strikeout rate, especially, has been a massive improvement, going from way below average to above average. He’s also making far more contact at pitches he swings at in the zone, hence an elite in-zone Value+ that sits far above the 90th percentile in MLB.
Here’s a look at his rolling process this season:
Red Sox CF Ceddanne Rafaela’s Process+ through play today
Season-wise, even through the struggles, he’s taken a massive leap. Rafaela has cut his soft-contact rate from 19.0% to 9.6%, and improved his season hard-hit rate from 25.4% to 36.3% (and Statcast hard-hit rate from 36.7% to 48.7%), added 6 mph to his average EV, doubled his barrel rate, set a career-high in Max EV (109.1 mph), and has transformed from an exclusive pull-power right-handed bat to a guy who can spray the ball to all fields. He sits in the 75th percentile or higher in a number of categories — xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg EV, barrel rate, hard-hit rate — and he’s not even remotely close to producing the way he can at the dish…yet.
It’s safe to say those offseason adjustments he made have served him well. While Rafaela will likely remain a big chase rate guy for a while, it’s something the Red Sox can live with while he produces and maintains a good strikeout rate like he has this season. Unlike what we’ve seen from another glove-first budding star in Pete Crow-Armstrong, I don’t think Rafaela will all of a sudden skyrocket to the top of offensive leaderboards this season. But there’s no doubt he will serve as a valuable part of the Red Sox for 2025 and beyond. Rafaela’s 2025 has allowed me to believe he is a true breakout candidate.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads | @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
