Collin The Shots

I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but you want to add Collin McHugh. He went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks, which is his second...

I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but you want to add Collin McHugh. He went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks, which is his second straight great start after looking poor in his DLH start back on July 22nd, but that’s not why I’m saying this. Seriously, that’s a super small sample any schmuck can have back-to-back good starts and I wouldn’t get excited, especially someone who has been so mediocre over the last two seasons. So why are you excited then? Well, over the years, I’ve said one thing about McHugh: If he doesn’t have the vertical drop on his Slider/Cutter, then he’s not going to be effective. Back in his golden season of 2014, the pitch had a zMov value around 2.0, and in future seasons that rose two inches. That’s bad. This year…it’s -0.3 thus far. That’s two inches more drop than in 2014. Ohhhh baby. What about his horizontal movement? Yep, he’s boosted that one as well to another three inches. He has a 20%+ whiff rate with the pitch across the ~50 thrown already and I’m super sold. It’s hilarious given how I was so against McHugh prior to his return from the DL but seeing a significant change in his most important pitch is immense. The cherry on top of it all is his ROS schedule. Let’s assume he pitches every five games the rest of the way and this is what he gets: CWS, @ARI, OAK, @LAA, TEX, @SEA, @OAK, SEA, CWS, @TEX, @BOS. That’s a fantastic schedule and I’d pick him up ASAP as he’s available in about 70% of ESPN leagues. Wild.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Corey Kluber – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. The only ER has a solo shot from Sanchez. It felt like a small breeze on a still day.

Chad Kuhl – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Kuhl story, bro. I will say that save for Kluber, this is the most dominating start of the day. Which is weird but Birthday Parties are a thing.

Matt Garza – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Don’t you dare get used to this or he’ll make you feel like this as you compete for a playoff spot.

A.J. Griffin – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. It was a DLH situation and Griffin said TO HELL WITH THE DLH! No need to be so dramatic, Griffin. Did you know that each of his last five starts have come with 4 strikeouts or fewer? How about that he allowed 4, 9, 4 ER in his last three starts before hitting the DL? Maybe he was battling injury through those games? Okay that’s fair. What’s not fair is putting you through the tumultuous outings of Griffin the rest of the way. He’s not worth your time.

Michael Wacha – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. A 2.00 WHIP is not going to win me over Wacha and you have to last longer than four innings. YOU SHOULD KNOW THESE THINGS.

Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Ehhhh Wood got out of a bases-loaded jam by picking off the man from second then getting a double play, which helps explain the low ERA/high WHIP. Not too thrilled with the low strkeouts but he needed some improvement after his last outing and I guess I’ll take this.

Ty Blach – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Talk about a day, Blach even hit his first career HR in this game as well. Y’all know I hate making Three-Fists Compromises and Blach is the most apparent one out there.

Trevor Cahill – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Okay, so I’m a little worried. Not enough to make me hesitate from rolling with Cahill against the Cardinals + ChiSox next, but a 6.38 ERA in his last five games and just six Ks in three games is disconcerting to say the least. Let’s talk after the Cards.

Sonny Gray – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I obviously watched this one and I was impressed with Gray. He did a great job of keeping the ball down through the night and his breaking stuff was working well. It’s never easy going against the Indians and he could have gone deeper in the game if the Yanks hadn’t booted two outs + made an extra throwing error in the opening frame. He’s at #37 right now, and I can see an argument for him sitting around #30 come Monday.

Matt Boyd – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Yeah that WHIP and ERA is way too high for me to enjoy 6 Ks from Boyd, which means I’m still Boyd Watching.

Jerad Eickhoff – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. It doesn’t look pretty, but a PQS with five Ks is totally fine with me if I’m streaming him. Streamer Record 57-40-12.

Yovani Gallardo – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. I’m still debating if Bikram or Yovani is the more difficult YoGa to endure.

German Marquez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s not the stellar 9+ strikeout game we’ve seen before, but I think I’m okay with a VPQS inside Coors from Marquez.

Sean Newcomb – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 7 BBs, 7 Ks. 7 Ks and 7 Walks in under five innings. What a ridiculous line. I’d hate to trust Newcomb moving forward at all as those walks are going to be around a long time.

Blake Snell – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Whoa, 1 walk! Whoa, 90 pitches in four frames! Nothing’s changed here.

Parker Bridwell – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Okay so I’ve been calling him Patrick for some reason and I have no idea why. I know it’s Parker, I even led with him and made a terrible Parker joke. Maybe I’m thinking of Parker’s Brother? Terrible joke aside, I can see Bridwell as the very ocassional streamer, though seeing him struggle this much against the Phils sure doesn’t help his case.

Adalberto Mejia – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. I can’t see a scenario where I look at a menu of options and say “I’ll have the Mejia please!” Even the waiter would give me a look like I’m ordering the Fish of the Day at the rando diner in the middle of suburbia.

Rafael Montero – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Montero had to endure Coors, so I guess I have to throw this one out the window, but I can’t say this line would surprise on any given night, save for the K per inning. You know that’s not you Raf.

Sal Romano – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. #BetterThanBundy. This makes zero sense if you haven’t listened to the latest Podcast which features a super riduclous rant about Dylan Bundy and Romano gets pulled in for no good reason. I’m happy to see Romano limit the walks entirely as I think his mechanics will lead to those aplenty, though the rest of this is pretty dang blegh. There are worse chances to take when Romano is going against bad teams, didn’t fall his way this time and I question how much more we’ll even see of him.

Rick Porcello – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Everyone knows that Porcello had the highest run support of any starter last year by a considerable amount. Did you also know that he’s #2 in the majors for the least run support in 2017? Oh how the tables have turned…

Chris Tillman – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Kids, gather around…kids…STEVEN GET OVER HERE. What is it Grandpa? What is it that we say about Chris? You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman. Bless you, children.

Zack Greinke – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. There’s something to be said about an ace pitcher still giving you production even when his ERA/WHIP hurts you. Thanks for the 8 Ks Greinke, don’t do this again.

Jose Quintana – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Awwww, I was really hoping Quintana could keep redefining himself in Chicago as a part of the Cubs, but the Diamondbacks had other ideas. Don’t let this stop you from starting him.

Miguel Gonzalez – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Miguel…No.

Kendall Graveman – 2.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. It was a clear DLH situation as he’s been out since the end of May and it was absolutely horrendous against the Giants. I can understand him being owned at some point down the stretch, but I didn’t love him much when he was healthy and I’m sure not excited to make that investment when he’s still clearly recovering.

Today’s Streamer

Adam Conley vs. Atlanta Braves  Conley has shown improved Fastball command from returning from the minors and I’d roll with him against the Braves.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Luis Castillo vs. St. Louis Cardinals – He’s still owned in under 25% of ESPN Leagues and y’all know I love this start. Dinelson Lamet against the Pirates is the other solid option if Castillo is taken.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. New York Mets – Here’s to hoping he keeps this start given all the Dodgers being Dodgers things and the every present possibility Ryu gets hurt from a gust of wind.

Game of the Day

Yu Darvish vs. Jacob deGrom It’s Darvish in his first game as a Dodger + we get to watch deGrom as well. Bring it.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

15 responses to “Collin The Shots”

  1. curious says:

    What’s your opinion about Kuhl? I noticed he’s been improving a lot lately, and this tweet ( says he’s pitching 2.70 ERA since July 1st, with an opponent slash line of .221/.313/.307.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      4.05 BB/9, 4.45 xFIP, sub 7.00 K/9 in that time as well. Just a 3.1% HR/FB rate doesn’t make me think that ERA is sustainable, with a sub 6 IPS that makes him a really boring option that I’m not chasing for a 12 teamer.

  2. Jeremy says:

    I know it’s not Monday yet but shouldn’t we start to get a little more excited for Garrett Richard’s one-of-these-days return? Tough to rank a guy who has only had one start that led to the DL but you snuck him in there last week didn’t you? ? Just wish I had room on my roster to stash him. Still trying to suppress my level-headed, sorta excitement ha! #DLH

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I stuck him and Chase at the end since they should be considered if you want a stash for September.

      Hard to get excited for Richards when the latest is that he’s been cleared to throw off a mound. That’s it!

  3. Hanjy says:

    Do you prefer Collin McHugh over Alex Wood, Luis Castillo, Drew Pomeranz, or Charlie Morton for the rest of the season and playoffs?

  4. tiwaniuk says:

    At this point, would you drop Taillon for McHugh?

  5. Jon says:

    I’ve been stashing Reynaldo Lopez. Should I drop him to pickup Mchugh?

  6. Tabernathy says:

    Would you rather throw Taillon against the Padres or Lucas Sims against the Marlins on Sunday?

  7. Matt Nielsen says:

    Thoughts on Skaggs vs OAK tomorrow? Tempted to start him. What about Samardzija vs. ARI Sunday? That’s a sit, I imagine.

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