Coolio Julio

Nick Pollack reviews every single starting pitcher's performances from Sunday's games.

(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

I don’t want to do this, but I have no choice. I have to lead with Julio Teheran today as he went 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks against the Padres. Yes, the Padres. I know that itself should make this a shorter blurb, but I know the love for Teheran and how I don’t share it and how I’m going to get a ton of comments today when I’m super hesitant to put him on The List. I don’t know if he will yet. Are you serious Nick?! It’s a sub 4.00 ERA! He just had ELEVEN STRIKEOUTS. Six no-hit innings! Against the Padres. He had a 4.31 ERA (4.95 SIERA!) with a 19% K rate and 11% walk rate entering this outing. That man doesn’t deserve a spot on The List. But because he ran over the Padres like Mr. Burns in his motorcar, now we’re suddenly all over it. That doesn’t add up to me, but maybe I’ll find a spot for him. I don’t know, there are a lot of deserving guys out there…We’ll see.

Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:

Jack Flaherty – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. I think we’ve finally gotten to that point where as Flaherty owners, he’s not in consideration for getting dropped. You didn’t know if it would last. If it was just a flash in the pan or if you were chasing fool’s gold and there was someone else better to target. This was the cubs, this was dope, and you should feel dope. I’m tempted to slot him up a good amount today, but the biggest pullback is the low 5.6 IPS as he’s pitched six frames just three times in nine starts. Maybe that will comes with time (97 pitches here, FWIW), but for now I can’t have him shoot up the ranks just yet.

Matt Strahm – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Y’all know I like talking about Strahm becoming a super-sleeper once he gets a proper shot in the Padres rotation – I even wrote about it over the weekend here – and there is something to be said about 10 whiffs in 46 pitches against the Braves. Just be aware of who he is when he finally gets stretched out by the end of July.

Chris Stratton – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. This is just the sixth time all season in 15 starts that Stratton has fewer than 3 ER. While holding a 5.4 IPS. That’s the gamble you’re making here.

Shane Bieber – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Bieber got the Twins again and while he got a bit Singled Out, he pounded the zone (29 CSW in 89 with just 9 whiffs) and gave you a solid outing…if you didn’t need the WHIP. I promise you, Bieber, there are other teams in the majors than the Twins, but I’m not sure how many more he sees as Carlos Carrasco could be missing just one turn of the rotation and Adam Plutko still has a seemingly strong grip on the fifth spot for whatever reason. If Bieber has security, I see him being in the 60s or so, but I don’t think he has enough in the arsenal to push a Top 40 consideration at any point this year.

Clay Buchholz – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Super boring but that’s okay from Buchholz. You may have wanted more against the Mets, but if Buchholz isn’t falling on his face, that’s a win, right?

Wilmer Font – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s getting pushed a little more by the Rays – 74 pitches here – and could be considered the actual starter by now. Too bad I’m not too Font of him, but hey, credit to you for being productive against the Yanks.

Blaine Hardy – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Our call Boy gave us 5.1 innings of benefit. Not much benefit, like a free side of white bread, but that’s more than you had before and we’ll take it. Streaming Record: 41-24.

Anthony DeSclafani – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Tony Disco gave us a Philly but at least everything else helps in some way. Kinda. I mean, are four strikeouts going to do a whole lot? Maybe? At least he’s starting to look more like a Toby and that’s what really matters.

Sam Gaviglio – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. I’m surprised he was able to churn out six strikeouts. I’m not surprised that he didn’t last very long. Is a 2.00 WHIP worth it? Didn’t think so.

Lance McCullers – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Well look at this. After a lot of “fine but not great” starts from McCullers, he finally whips out 9 Ks as he induced 17 whiffs – enough for a co-Gallows Pole. It’s not easy to do that against the Royals, but he held a massive 36 CSW in 97 pitches and turned heavily to his curveball like it was the old days. No more of that changeup focus, we’re talking over 50% deuces here. That’s what’s up.

Jose Quintana – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhh this is super boring but we’ll take boring from Quintana these days. That is just 6 ER allowed in four starts now so please keep giving us reasons not to drop you. I’m fine with that.

Eduardo Rodriguez – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Over his last eight starts, Edu is holding a 2.38 ERA, 26.7% K rate, 5.8% BB rate, and 1.21 WHIP. He earned 17 whiffs today, good enough for a share of the Gallows Pole, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Please keep that knee healthy…please keep that knee healthy…

Zach Wheeler – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. 96mph is what we’re chasing from Wheeler and BAM, he gave us…97.2. Hot friggin damn, that’s crazy. 15 CSW on 52 Four-seamers is glorious (30% is high for a heater, normally breaking stuff inflates the number), and he even gave a touch of his splitter. However, just 11 whiffs, slider wasn’t working and there’s more polish left to rub. Love his schedule though – Dodgers, Pittsburgh, Jays, Phils – and I’m down to chase it.

Caleb Ferguson – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Caleb is getting starts for the Dodgers given their #DL2016Chase season and acted like the other Caleb. It’s a challenge to allowed 3 ER on three baserunners and he pulled it off. In all seriousness, this isn’t the party you want to crash.

Andrew Heaney – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Ayyyy there he is. I understand why I got dozens of questions about dropping Heaney after he allowed 5 ER for the second time in three games, but this is why we hold onto the man. FWIW, he came back out for the 8th and struck out the side because he just wanted to make sure you held onto him tight. Never let go, Jack.

Brad Keller – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Whoa, a VVVVPQS and just one strikeout. You better be in a QS league if you started Brad, because these ratios are Kelling you.

CC Sabathia – 7.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. 36 CSW with 15 whiffs in 102 pitches for CC as he got a bit Singled Out but showed up with 10 strikeouts and overran the Rays. I consider Sabathia a Toby as these strikeouts should not be banked on moving forward, but 9 whiffs on 51 cutters will do the trick.

James Shields – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Jimmy Bucklers gave us a VVPQS and you better like it.

Dylan Bundy – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. I want better than this against the Fish. The holiday Bundle was there – 25% sliders + 92mph heater – but he didn’t execute like normal. So it goes, keep loving him.

Daniel Mengden – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. It was the Vargas Rule and now that’s three terrible starts from Mengden in a row. Just saying.

Aaron Nola – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. This got off to a terrible start and never calibrated along the way. It’s weird seeing five 3+ walk games (three 4+) on Nola’s resume just 15 games into the season, but I’m not worried long term here at all. Nola day will come again and we will rejoice.

Jake Odorizzi – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s not easy facing the Indians. It’s also not easy to keep a job on fantasy roster after allowing 16 ER in four starts. Yeesh.

Tanner Roark – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Roark, you’re Spiderman, the best Toby on the market. Don’t make me strip you of your favorite neighborhood superhero title as you hold a 5.87 ERA over your last five starts. Guess what, that mark is higher than your K/9 in that time. Not to mention, this was the Jays. THE JAYS. Figure it out.

Yovani Gallardo – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. We’re doing YoGa again? I did Bikram once and I think that was enough for my eternity. YoGa is so hot right now. Yeah, in the same way that Hell is so hot right now.

Jon Gray – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. One shy of the Gallows Pole at 16 whiffs, Gray continues to shove the wedge between his ERA and SIERA, now boasting a chasm of 2.50 point difference. Seriously, a 5.89 ERA vs. a 3.33 SIERA. I want to make sure you understand how aware I am of the underlying numbers saying he should be Top 50 the rest of the way. I need to make it clear that there is the “headache syndrome” that will not disappear from Gray owners, as this was supposed to be an easy one. Outside of Coors and against a weak lineup. You’re going to struggle to figure out what to do with Gray as this gap isn’t going to magically disappear. It will some, but Gray will not hold a 3.50 ERA the rest of the way, sorry.

Mike Leake – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Sporer and I did our weekly Fireside chat last night and what you didn’t hear in the final piece is our discussion of Leake having a legit money slider (it’s my fault, stupid recording problems). It’s a legit pitch, but you need more of that if you’re going to tango and foxtrot and clearly whiskey with the Sawx.

Chase Anderson – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Anderson faced the Phillies and tormented us with 92mph velocity after touching 94+ the previous weeks. WHAT HAVE WE DONE TO DESERVE THIS.

Joe Musgrove – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. There was some talk about what to do with Musgrove in our community Slack channel (you should join it) and the answer is easy. Nothing. If you owned him before this, you were aware of his floor. This is it. He wasn’t going to be a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher this year (3.68 now) and there will be both peaks and valleys. That’s okay, he’s still worth in over the long haul at the backend of your staff, just understand that this will happen, like a thunderstorm on opening day.

Trevor Richards – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Trevor, Trevor, Trevor, Trevor, Trevor…This will just not do. Some were really depending on you as a desperate Sunday move and this is what you did. That’s three games of eight with at least 5 ER. Can’t wait to see you in Coors next week. CAN’T WAIT.

Today’s Streamer

Andrew Suarez vs. Miami Marlins – It’s the Fish and Suarez could pull this off.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Dereck Rodriguez vs. Miami Marlins – He did it last time, he can do it again.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Tyler Mahle vs. Detroit Tigers I can see Mahle spinning a decent one here against the weak Tigers. Chad Kuhl is an intriguing option with his increased slider usage, but I don’t like him against the Brew Crew.

Game of the Day

Nick Pivetta vs. Miles Mikolas – I’d love to see Pivetta rebound strong – the Cards can make it happen! – and Mikolas is a joy to watch.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

24 responses to “Coolio Julio”

  1. Southern Marylander says:

    I just picked up Arrieta for Li’l Fowler and Forrest Whitley (my keeper league is generally obsessed with prospects, but they all hate Whitley for some reason and this was the best value I could get for him). How much am I going to hate the rest of the season?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Arrieta should help overall, but the days of the massive strikeout production stud starts are behind him. That’s okay, you’ll enjoy the ratios for the most part.

  2. Frankie says:

    So glad I dropped Teheran for Brent Suter a few weeks back. I can look past this start because I know what Teheran is. And he is capable of these great starts, but you get in between is pure frustration. I’d rather ride a hot hand like Suter than own Teheran ROS and rely on his up and down starts.

  3. jay says:

    What’s a “Philly”? Don’t see it in the glossary

  4. Bob says:

    I’m surprised your low on Bieber. Is that solely based on him not having a guaranteed ration spot? Nothing about his stuff screams “Ace” but that low walk rate means he’ll always have chance to compete out there. Plus 7 K’s not too bad. Stickly from the eye test I like his stuff equal to or better than Soroka. And I know you love Soroka. That’s just my opinion. If he sticks in the rotation which he should because Plutko is a dumpster fire I think he has a shot to be a pretty decent 4/5 guy for fantasy purposes. You disagree?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      It’s highly based on his lack of security in the rotation, yes.

      If he is the true #5, I think he’s a Top 60 arm. I trust Soroka’s ability to manipulate his fastball better than Bieber, while also a touch more upside with working in the secondary pitches.

      So yeah, I’m pretty much with you as Bieber could be a #5 if he gets the starts through the end of the year. A little too hittable and lack of strong arsenal to make me think he has a high ceiling, but solid.

  5. Alfred Edward Neuman says:

    TRoss or Flaherty?

  6. Harrison says:

    How far apart are Keuchel and Barria right now? Would it be crazy to trade Keuchel for Barria and a minor hitting upgrade (Mancini)?

  7. DJ says:

    The problem with musgrove is the velocity has been down which is when his bad outings have been

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Good point at being at 93mph in this one after being 94mph prior.

      First start with the dip, though (95mph in the first one wasn’t expected to stick). I’m curious how it settles in the next one.

  8. Jpr says:

    So is the plan for Strahm to be stretched out? Who do you compare him to as far as an upside type play once he would be a full time starter?

    • Southern Marylander says:

      If San Diego was any good, Strahm could be an awesome Josh Hader / Andrew Miller bullpen piece. I’m just not sure that he’ll ever be much more than a 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K starter.

  9. David says:

    Would you drop either W. Buehler or G. Richards to pick-up Cueto?

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