Darkest Before The Sean

Let’s talk about Sean Manaea for a moment as he went 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks against the Phils. Save for an error in the first...

Let’s talk about Sean Manaea for a moment as he went 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks against the PhilsSave for an error in the first that hurt Manaea’s longevity and WHIP, this is serviceable. I’ve lost some of my love for Manaea as the season has gone on and while I think he’s still worth the start against Texas (in O.Co), it’s just not the same. His slinging delivery is making it tough for him to spot his Fastball, which I should have been harder on earlier in the season as it’s the same approach for why I’ve questioned Jake Arrieta’s long-term command. I wonder where he’ll fall in next year’s ADP, maybe outside the Top 50 60. He’s carrying a 4.56 ERA with an 8.00 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9 on an unpopular team, all signs that he will be ignored by casual owners everywhere. At that price, he may be worth it next year, though I can also see Manaea being a headache through the season. I haven’t decided if I want to target him or not yet. We’ll see.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Matt Boyd – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I was Boyd Watching as Boyd allowed a double with two outs in the ninth inning, and I’ll be Boyd Watching again when I don’t start him next time out.

Jon Gray – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. And Gray keeps cruising along. Next up are the Padres out of Coors and there’s no reason to stop him now.

Robert Gsellman – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I wonder if people are going to buy into Gsellman again next year as he’s held a 3.03 ERA across his last six starts. With a 4.68 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9 no less, but I’ve seen crazier things. He hosts the Nats next and I’m not doing it.

Corey Kluber – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Come on Sale, you can do this…

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Is he even starting again this week? Maybe? If he does it’s against the Giants over the weekend, which I guess I’m into but man it’s tough to bank on the Dodgers being predictable.

Robert Stephenson – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Stephenson is hilarious. He can’t stop striking out batters but he can’t stop the walks either. SO FUNNY. It’s a 12.843 K/9 and 6.08 BB/9 over his last five starts. Huh. He’s also faced the Mets, Brewers, and Pirates twice, then also the Cards but was terrible then. I think he’ll get over drafted next year and we’ll have many talks about him over the off-season. I’m willing to bet there are at least five people out there that have Stephenson as “Their guy”. And guess what, it’ll come with the “if he can get the walks down” caveat as well. Y’all know how I feel about that.

Danny Duffy – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Way to cruise against the Indians and make us super confident in your next start against the ChiSox. I’m starting to realize that I’m classifying everyone in the 30-40 range, meaning there are few guys left for the 20s. It’s going to be a weird draft (we’re going to do a mock draft at the end of October, awwww yeah).

Miguel Gonzalez – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. Miguel…No. Five walks and 2 Ks?! Jeez.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Wait, what? WHAT?!

Stephen Strasburg – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Strasburg lost his scoreless innings streak, but did you realize he has a 2.60 ERA with a 10.51 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9? Okay fine, you probably did.

Justin Verlander – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I can’t wait to draft Verlander in the 7th round next year.

Jake Odorizzi – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Even including the error-laden start last time out, Odorizzi has been solid the last three outings against the Twins, Yanks, and Sawx, averaging just under 6 Ks per game and allowing 3 ER total. xFip around 4.00 in that time with a .083 BABIP…including a .000 BABIP against the Sawx here. Which is crazy. Now we see Baltimore ahead and I’m not so scared but there’s a clear reason to be skeptical. Only for the desperate.

Garrett Richards – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I know you wanted a QS and a slightly better ERA, but this is definitely a win. He threw under 80 pitches though and I don’t think his next matchup against the Astros is something you want to partake in. Streamer Record 77-58-16.

Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. It’s another Gallows Pole victory for Erod as he fanned 19, holding a 17%+ overall whiff rate for the second straight game. I would point to his increased Slider usage as a possible reason…but he threw 14 yesterday and didn’t get a single whiff. So much for that. It’s his Four-Seamer that’s doing the damage, and that’s a good thing. Erod is at his best as a Fastball/Changeup arm, though I wonder if we can really see him be this consistent producer without a dominant Slider. We’ll see.

Chris Stratton – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Is Stratton one of the more underrated arms out there? I actually believe he’s going to be a go-to streaming option next year if he has a firm spot in the Giants rotation. He gets the Dodgers next, so sit this one out.

Julio Teheran – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Yep, I will definitely take this from Teheran. No I will not depend on it and think he can do it again, but if you needed it, you got it. Now he gets the Phils next…ahhh I don’t want to trust in Teheran on a Sunday but I can imagine it not being terrible.

Jhoulys Chacin – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it.

Lance Lynn – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. …and here’s the Lynn I’ve been worried about. It only took like 2-3 months to get here. Thing is, he gets the Pirates next and I’d roll with that.

Andrew Moore – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. We want Moore! Oh wait. No, no we don’t.

Jose Quintana – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Ehhhh so close to the PQS but just one walks and 8 Ks made this work for you.

Brandon Woodruff – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Woodruff faced the Marlins and did better than expected. That’s nice, totally not tossing you out there against the Cubs.

Henderson Alvarez – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I think I speak for everyone that we couldn’t care less that you’re back Alvarez. Sorry.

Joe Biagini – 1.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Womp womp. I wonder if Biagini will get the job out of the gate next year. I still see Young Gun potential here but not one that you should be investing in now or right away next season.

Gerrit Cole – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Cole was cruising until the sixth where his first four batters went like this: Walk, HR, walk, HR. The King of Really Good is back.

Taijuan Walker – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. Walker took a trip of SanFran and under performed. Badly. I don’t think anyone would have called this a “Sit”, but this is the life Walker lives despite how much we’d like to think otherwise. I just don’t see him being a stable arm through a season.

Dylan Covey – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Don’t Covey Thy Dylan.

Kyle Gibson – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 8 Ks. Awwwww. This was a really fun ride Gibson, but then Josh Donaldson woke up and things changed. Still, don’t toss him away just yet as he gets the Tigers next. I think you’re okay there.

Sonny Gray – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Wait, Gray, you’re not supposed to do this. Like at all. Please stop.

Dillon Peters – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Fun story, I ran with Peters in one of my leagues and it nearly cost me a spot in my championship week. This one hurt, a lot. I feel your pain if this was the deciding move for your league. I’m holding your hand through this one.

Today’s Streamer

Luis Perdomo vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – There is no streamer I would actually go with today, so I’ll take the HR chance in Perdomo as the Diamondbacks are out of Arizona and Perdomo has gone six innings in each of his last ten games. Don’t do this.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Luiz Gohara vs. Washington Nationals – Not much to choose from here (assuming German Marquez is taken in your league), leaving Gohara who looked plenty better in his last start against the Nats.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jakob Junis vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I think Junis brings enough upside to make this the best streaming option. Tyler Chatwood against the Giants is another option, but without the same ceiling.

Game of the Day

Jameson Taillon vs. Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers are hot and this could be bad for Taillon. I’m curious if he’ll show up and be the man we love.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

16 responses to “Darkest Before The Sean”

  1. Soggy Arm says:

    Going into finals week. Here are my potential streamers (obviously not the same for all; understanding Fister and Taillon are huge risks and waiting for tonight’s results):
    Tyler Anderson vs SD Thu
    Homer Bailey vs STL Thu
    Wacha @ PIT Fri
    Taillon vs STL Sat(?)
    Folty vs PHI Fri
    Newcomb vs PHI Sat
    Fister @CIN Sun

    What do you think? Looks like a Brave(s) weekend.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Don’t like the Bailey stream at all.

      • Soggy Arm says:

        Just looked up his recent numbers. STL tore him up– 10 runs in early August. Has been relatively decent lately. One blip was 5 runs to the Shmets the game before last.

        • Soggy Arm says:

          Now Salazar is in the mix on Thu @LAA.

          • Paul Mitchell says:

            Salazar has shown a ton of upside…hasn’t pitched a lot of innings since coming off the dl. Is it possible they have him on a pitch count? I really want to use him over the other streamers although espn tells me newcomb is an option for today and could roll with him instead.

  2. Charles says:

    Hey Nick, would you start Fister @ Baltimore tonight? This is really doing my head in

  3. JB says:

    Would you start Taillon today? Championship week and the other guy is running Suter

    • Nick Pollack says:

      The Brewers are hot and Taillon has been shaky lately. I’d be conservative and sit him unless I felt I needed extra starts this week.

  4. The Kraken says:

    Stephenson and Clevinger sound similar to me.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I think we’re at the point where we need to agree to disagree about Clev.

      Stephenson is more extreme pitcher than Clev in my mind and doesn’t have the depth of repertoire either.

      • The Kraken says:

        Fair enough. I don’t want to abuse the fact that you try to reply to most comments and I don’t think either of us will be changing our mind any time soon. I was really thinking about SP that walk a ton of guys and the only name I could come up with is Danny Salazar. I think if you make a list of guys with 40- control, you will have a list of guys that really don’t belong in the rotation unless they are going uncharacteristically well.

        • Nick Pollack says:

          True, and I don’t disagree with you on the impact of walking plenty of batters.

          I don’t agree that Clev is destined to be a 3.50 – 4.00 BB/9 guy.

          But yeah, let’s see what happens in 2018.

  5. Tony says:

    Would you start Giolito @Hou tomorrow under any circumstances?

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