Hello Deep Leaguers! We’re only two weeks from the MLB trade deadline. I wanted to remind you, in case you haven’t seen any of the one million trade deadline speculation articles floating around the internet. I enjoy seeing all the ‘perfect fit” trade suggestions, most of which would make lots of sense for the teams involved. But we all know MLB teams hate perfect fits, and love logjams and blocking prospects. Fan speculation is even better. Clint Frazier + Miguel Andujar lands Tarik Skubal, right? Who else should the Yanks ask for?
Fallers
Alex Lange, Relief Pitcher, Kansas City Royals – 13% Rostered
I almost never cover relief pitchers in this space. There are lots of reasons. Their low volume means there is limited data. Looking at a month might only mean 7 or 8 innings. But it’s mostly because reliever value can vary so widely between leagues. This article isn’t focused on 12-team mixers with standard scoring formats; that’s kind of the whole point. Therefore, we may not be involved in the “saves chase” depending on whether we lump them in with holds. But some leagues still use saves, and Lange, despite his unsightly ratios, has been closing for the Royals for a while now.
He successfully converted his first 8 save opportunities since claiming the role, but has blown his last two chances, and has now allowed 13 earned runs over his last 4.1 innings, spanning 6 appearances. Lange throws 5 different pitches, which is unusual for a reliever, as they tend to be fireballers with one other offering to keep hitters honest. But Lange throws 5 different pitches at least 10% of the time. His slider has been his most effective and used pitch, but his sinker has been his least effective and second most used pitch. Call me crazy, but I think he should use his heater (.188 opponent BA) more and his sinker (.361 opponent BA, .694 SLG) less.
Now the trade deadline tends to shuffle closer situations, but Lange has been so damaging to our ratios lately that I don’t think I can recommend rostering him even if he does continue to close, unless you are truly desperate for saves. If you are speculating on the KC pen, Daniel Lynch has been their best reliever for most of the year (2.18 ERA), but as an arbitration candidate next season, he might be on the block. Lucas Erceg had the gig before Lange, but Erceg has an ERA of nearly 5.oo over the last month. I think the real moral of this story is that I hate saves as a fantasy scoring category.
Kyle Manzardo, First Base, Cleveland Guardians – 6% Rostered
Manzardo was pretty productive in May and June. He carried a batting average over .250 and an OPS in the mid-800s for both months while launching 9 homers. However, he’s slashing just .109/.212/.130 with no long balls and just one RBI over 15 games (52 PA) in July. Manzardo has always had strikeout issues; he carried a K rate around 25-26% for the last two seasons. That issue has gotten even worse this year, as Manzardo has struck out in over 31% of his at-bats.
Manzardo’s exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rates are all down from 2025 as well. After cranking 27 homers last season, he’s sitting at just 10 over halfway through the 2026 campaign. He does have a BABIP of just .167 this month, but with his underlying rates all dropping, I’m not hand-waving any of his recent struggles to bad luck.
The contact ability is our real focus here, but Pitcher List has revamped their tools lately, and look how gorgeous that new process chart is. I think they contracted Georges Seurat. I mean Manzardo’s contact chart is pretty gnarly, but it looks even uglier compared to the gloriously colorful process chart.
It is possible that Manzardo can find his groove again once Jose Ramirez returns. It’s difficult to overstate how important Ramirez is to the Guardians’ lineup. But it’s also possible the Guardians decide to promote Ralphy Velazquez (11 homers, .875 OPS across two levels), but he’s not been quite as good at AAA as he was in AA. Either way, I wouldn’t jump ship from Manzardo quite yet, but I would definitely keep my eye on replacement first base options.
Dominic Canzone, Outfield, Seattle Mariners – 16% Rostered
Rostering Canzone this season has been a roller coaster ride. Full of peaks and valleys. He batted a strong .284 in March, then just .211 in May. Then he rebounded to hit .314 in June, but just .205 so far in July. While he’s right around the bottom quartile in whiff and chase rates, he’s only struck out in about 20% of his at-bats, which is slightly better than league average. He really doesn’t K enough that we would expect so much streakiness.
Canzone also still carries elite exit velocities and barrel rates, and his hard hit rate is just barely outside of the top 10% of hitters. His contact ability chart still looks strong too. In fact, it’s trending upward lately.
Canzone had BABIPs scraping the .200 line during his two down months, and much more normal rates just over .300 during his two strong months. In this case, since Canzone has demonstrated strong contact skills and an above-average K rate, I am willing to hand-wave those months and his current cold streak to some bad luck.
He’s playing more often against lefties and has hit them as well as he hits righties. I was pretty high on Canzone when I covered him as a riser a few weeks ago, and if you missed out on him back then, this little mini slump might present a chance to grab him from an impatient manager.
Risers
Tristan Peters, Outfield, Chicago White Sox – 8% Rostered
Peters is having a great July, slashing .319/.327/.574 with 2 homers. But he’s actually been doing this all season. He didn’t hit for any power back in March, but he did bat .274 with a few stolen bases. Then batted about .290 with 4 homers and a mid-.800s OPS through May and June. He’s generally batted in the bottom third of the Sox lineup, so his 38 runs and 37 RBI are somewhat modest.
There probably isn’t any untapped power hiding here, as Peters’ exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rates are all in the league’s bottom quartile. He also doesn’t walk much, but he’s striking out at just an 18% clip and his process chart suggests he’s really getting into a groove.
Peters has really gotten better at everything as he’s gotten more comfortable in the big leagues. The White Sox have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league this season, and Peters has been an under-recognized part of their success. He isn’t going to be a big source, but he has plenty of speed if he decides to run more, and players who consistently help your batting average are tough to find. Tristan Peters might not be the most exciting player, but he’s definitely worth rostering in more than 8% of leagues.
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays – 1% Rostered
Not to be confused with Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr.has 8 homers in just 101 at-bats on the season. Five of those homers have come in the last two weeks, and 3 of them have come since the All-Star Game! Victor Mesa Jr. is so hot right now; he’s slashing .250/.311/.650 with 5 homers in July despite a .192 BABIP holding him back.
Checking under those surface stats, we see Mesa Jr. with subpar exit velocity (under 89 MPH) and hard-hit rates (38%), but a strong 11.8% barrel rate. His 11.2% walk rate is excellent, though, and his 23.3% K rate is a little worse than average, but nothing too scary. He’s handled left-handed pitchers well as a left-handed hitter, so there doesn’t appear to be much platoon risk either.
His batting average is really the only caveat right now, but he batted .350 in the minors before his call-up this season, albeit that includes just 21 games; his xBA is also a much more digestible .239, despite that rough BABIP. He has an elite air pull% (great for dingers). On the other hand, he also has a sky-high pop-up% though (19% compared to MLB average 7%), which could be a major problem if it continues.
So I don’t love everything about Mesa’s profile. The pop-up rate is scary, and his power metrics are just OK. But his walk rate is great, and his recent performance, both in AAA and in the Majors, is impressive. He’s available in 99% of leagues and absolutely worth a shot in larger formats.
Ty France, First Base, San Diego Padres – 8% Rostered
Ty France is currently sporting the highest OPS of his 8-year MLB career. He’s 5 homers shy of his career high of 20 in a season. He’s been doing it all year too. He has posted an OPS over .800 every month of this season, even though his batting average slipped to .239 in June. He’s been at his best recently, slashing .320/.368/.700 with 5 homers already in July.
His underlying rates support his production too. His barrel rate rests in the top quartile, and his exit velocity and hard hit rates are even better, falling just outside the league’s top 10%. He is striking out more than he has in the past, but his 22.7% K rate is still just barely worse than the mean. I like everything I’m seeing here, except team context, that is.
The Pads have been the third-lowest scoring team in the league this season. Although they have been better of late, ranking 14th in runs scored over the last 30 days, a full 25 of their runs scored over that span came on Monday when they dropped 19 runs on the Royals. So even though France has been raking since opening day, he has just 29 runs and 40 RBI on the season.
France will be a free agent this offseason, and the Padres are currently outside of the playoff picture, but only a few games out of a wild card spot. They are usually one of the most active deadline teams, and it’s certainly possible he ends up on a higher scoring roster in a few weeks. If that happens and he’s available, jump all over that. Heck, he’s worth a speculative add now just in case.
That’s it for week 18. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there, deep leaguers!
