Let us begin this week of Deep League Risers and Fallers on a somber note. “Cry Me A” River Ryan was lost for the season and next as he schedules Tommy John surgery. Another exciting young pitcher heads to the IL for an extended period. As fantasy managers, all we can do is pour one out for our fallen prince and then hit the waiver wire. Unless you’re in a dynasty league. Then you get to see that little flag every day and wait for little status blurbs to update you about his recovery. C’est la vie…
Fallers
Coby Mayo, Third Base, Baltimore Orioles – 19% Rostered
It really has not been a great season for rookie batters. Coby Mayo earned his call up slashing .301/375/.586 at AAA. He made his MLB debut on August 2nd, drawing two walks and scoring once. He has not reached base safely since then.
In a comment on last week’s DLR&F, a reader (or fan? I’m gonna say fan) asked me whether they would be better off rostering Mayo or Gavin Lux for the remainder of the year. I responded that, while I loved Mayo as a long-term prospect, Lux would be the better bet for the rest of 2024. The Orioles are in a pennant race and would likely have Mayo on a short leash, ready to turn to Ramón Urías if the young slugger struggled. Aaaaaaaand that’s exactly what has happened. Urias started the final game of Baltimore’s series at Toronto and the first two games at Tampa. He went 3 for 11 with a dinger.
Obviously, 17 Major League plate appearances is a super small sample size, and we shouldn’t draw any conclusions whatsoever about Mayo as a player from his first week in The Show. But we can glean some information about how the Orioles might utilize him, and I simply do not trust that he will get full-time at-bats down the stretch. I’m still big on Mayo as one of the best power-hitting prospects in the game, but if you are chasing a championship, I don’t think he’s going to help enough this season.
Hayden Birdsong, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants – 31% Rostered
I have wanted to include Birdsong in this article as a Riser for a while, but he was up and down between the big club and AAA too often for me to be comfortable recommending him. So it gives me no joy to include him in the dour first half as a faller. But after a stellar July in which Birdsong pitched to the tune of a 3-0 record with a 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 33:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25.2 innings, he has begun to falter.
In his two August outings, Birdsong is 0-2 with a 17.05 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, and 6:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 6.1 innings. He has allowed four homers in those two starts. His opponents in these last two starts were Detroit and Washington, so I can’t just chalk it up to running into a top-tier offense. He also had a BABIP against of just .316 in August, which is slightly elevated but not the root of his struggles.
Through his first 36 innings as a Major League starter, Birdsong has stood out mostly thanks to an elite 31.4% whiff rate and excellent 27.7% strikeout rate that ranks in the top fifth of the league. His CSW on the season is a very healthy 30%. He has struggled to avoid hard contact though. His hard-hit and barrel rates sit in the league’s bottom tenth, and his exit velocity allowed is just slightly better.
Mix that hard contact with Birdsong’s high fly ball rate, and you have a pitcher with one of the worst HR/fly ball rates and HR/9 rates in the majors. On the bright side, Birdsong’s worrying 2 dingers allowed per nine innings pitched is more than twice the rate of homers allowed he posted in the minors, so hopefully, he will get his gopher ball problem under control. As it stands, however, I have lost a good bit of confidence and will likely avoid Birdsong as a streaming/starting option for a while. His next opponent looks to be Oakland, and they are not the streaming target they used to be.
Joey Loperfido, Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays – 3% Rostered
Loperfido produced a robust .933 OPS with 13 dingers in 39 games (189 plate appearances) at AAA before the Astros called him up earlier this season. He didn’t exactly set the world on fire with a .236/.299/.358 line and two homers in 38 games (106 plate appearances) for Houston. I had hoped that being dealt to the Jays would give Loperfido more consistent playing time and an increase in production.
Loperfido has started eight out of the ten games Toronto has played since the deal, but so far has slashed just .125/.152/.188 with no homers and one extra-base hit over his first 33 plate appearances with his new club. But what is really concerning isn’t the poor showing over a small sample size—it’s the strikeouts.
Loperfido struck out 53 times while drawing 21 walks over 189 plate appearances at AAA. Then with Houston, he produced a 43:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 118 plate appearances. And now with the Jays he has struck out 16 times and has yet to draw a walk in 33 plate appearances. The 28% strikeout rate he displayed in the minors was bad, but there are plenty of successful MLB hitters that carry K rates over 25%. The darn-close-to-50% K rate he’s produced in his first couple weeks in Toronto is unplayable.
I fully expect the Jays to let Loperfido continue to get MLB at-bats the rest of the way since they might as well let him take his lumps while they play out the season, but I won’t be affording him the same privilege on my fantasy squad.
Risers
Joey Bart, Catcher, Pittsburgh Pirates – 18% Rostered
The former 2nd overall pick and heir apparent to Buster Posey, Bart has found a new home in Pittsburgh. After slashing just .207/.263/.264 with no dingers through 97 plate appearances as a Giant, Bart was dealt to the Buccos for Austin Strickland. Since relocating to the Steel City, Bart has slashed .268/.348/.497 with 10 homers over 178 plate appearances. He has been the second-best catcher in standard leagues over the past month, trailing only Yainer Diaz.
His underlying rates generally support his breakout as well. He is producing a solid 89.8 MPH average exit velocity, a hard hit rate north of 40%, and a very impressive 11.7% barrel rate. He does strike out a bit more than I’d like to see with a 26.4% K rate, but he does a fair job of drawing free passes with a walk rate just shy of 10%. That said, e also currently carries the highest homerun/flyball rate in the majors, despite a ground-ball-heavy profile, so that homerun rate will likely drop off.
Bart has been batting cleanup for the past week and should continue to hit in the middle of the lineup for the Pirates, even as they watch their season spiral down the drain. It’s one of the worst offenses in the league, but he still gets to hit behind Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz, so he should have plenty of RBI opportunities. If you have questions about your catching situation, Bart could be the answer.
Andrew Benintendi, Outfielder, Chicago White Sox – 8% Rostered
Yeah, I’m as shocked as yinz are. Benintendi is rocking a .213/.266/.368 triple slash in what has been his worst professional season outside of the 14 games he played in 2020, but he is absolutely mashing right now. The 30-year-old outfielder is slashing .306/.342/.806 since the calendar flipped to August. His five homers this month match his long ball total from all of last season, in which he played 151 games.
His exit velocity is up about 1.5 MPH from last season but still sits below the MLB average at just 88.2 MPH. His hard rate is also up about 6% but still well below average at 33.7%, and his barrel rate is just 6.2%, resting comfortably in the bottom fifth of the league’s hitters. He also has one of the slowest bats in the league. Ultimately, I don’t think this is anything more than a heater, but it is one heck of a heater. Just to convince myself I wasn’t crazy checked his Power+ rolling chart, reproduced below:
Whew, still sane. Or at least no less sane than I was before seeing Benintendi pop off. For the sake of White Sox fans, I hope this is the start of a career resurrection, but I’m fairly confident this is just a hot streak, and fantasy managers can continue to safely ignore Benintendi and most other CHW players for the remainder of 2024.
Yuan Yepez, First Base and Outfield, Washington Nationals – 33% Rostered
Yepez was called up back in the first week of July, taking over first base duties from former Deep League Dynamo – Joey Meneses. The 26-year-old has more than held his own with a .315/.367/.484 line to go along with three homers and a couple steals over 139 plate appearances. He has been a top 10 first baseman in standard scoring formats over the past month.
He does not have huge power, with just an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 4.8% barrel rate. He does, however, do a great job making contact and putting the ball in play, with just a 15.8% strikeout that ranks in the league’s top fifth. What really stands out though is his aversion to hitting pop-ups and his sky-high 31.4% line drive rate, which is well above the league average of 24%.
I don’t think there is a ton of untapped power here, as Yepez knocked 11 homers in 319 plate appearances at AAA before his promotion, but he did hit 21 dingers in 384 plate appearances at AAA in 2023. He also carried a rather ludicrous .391 BABIP in July. Line drives are the most likely type of contact to land for hits, but that .391 mark still screams “regression incoming!”
Yepez has not recorded consecutive hitless games since his promotion (JINX!). I do not expect him to hit for a ton of power down the stretch, but the Nat’s have a fun roster right now with the likes of CJ Abrams, James Wood, and the scorching hot Alex Call. I think Yepez can continue to dispense liners all over the field and be a solid run producer for the Nats and fantasy managers to finish out the season.
As always, thanks for reading, and good luck out there deep leaguers!
Featured image by Justin Paradis