Hello Deep leaguers! Normally this is the time to check in on the top and bottom five offenses over the last month, since we’ve made it to August already. But the trade deadline probably changed a whole lot of lineups, so I’ll wait on that for another week. Overall I think it was a fun deadline. Skubal went where we all thought he would, for a little less than some of us hoped. Adley went for a big haul and the Angels moved half their team. Mason Miller stayed put. The Cubs got a lot of starting pitching and the Pirates built a whole new bullpen. I think the Yankees had a great day getting Ramos and Garcia, and they even called up George Lombard Jr., their top prospect. I got one of my wishes too, as the Reds also called up Hector Rodriguez (go get him) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if I was writing up Lombard and Rodriguez next week.
Fallers
Angel Martinez, Second Base and Outfield, Cleveland Guardians – 10% Rostered
Martinez missed over a month due to a fractured foot, but returned to the Guardians’ lineup a little over a week ago. He went hitless over his first five games back, and is just 2-for-23 at the dish since his reactivation. He has six strikeouts and no walks over that span, which perfectly fits with his K and BB walk rates on the season. Despite chasing more than almost any other hitter in the league, Angel has a perfectly average K rate. He’s allergic to walks though. His 2.6% BB walk rate is all the way in the bottom 1% of the league.
Martinez doesn’t have particularly exciting power metrics either. His exit velocity and hard hit rate are in the league’s bottom third and his barrel rate is below average. But he’s only 24 and was still on a better than 20/20 pace before his injury. He’s bounced around the lineup all season, with the Guardians even batting him leadoff on occasion, despite his .260 on base percentage. There is clearly talent here despite the poor approach at the plate.
And Martinez did carry a much better walk rate throughout his minor league career. He drew 199 walks in 461 MiLB games compared to the 45 he’s drawn over 256 MLB games. If, and it’s a big IF, he can cut his chase down and start drawing just a few more walks, there is a 20/20 (or more) player here. His xBA on the season is a respectable .246 already. Martinez is one of those players that I wouldn’t really be happy with as a starting outfielder heading into the fantasy playoffs, but I would be eyeing up as a potential dynasty keeper on team playing for the future.
Garrett Mitchell, Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers – 15% Rostered
I’m really happy to see Garrett Mitchell has stayed healthy and played in over 100 games this year. Overall he’s been pretty great too, slashing .262/.357/.427. He’s on pace for about 15 dingers and 15 steals, but has been ice cold over the last two weeks, slashing .086/.273/.114, which is just one of the weirdest triple slashes I’ve ever seen. An OBP higher than SLG is always a little odd, but it happens frequently enough. An OBP that is thrice the batting average and over double the slugging? Crazy.
Anyway, statistical anomalies aside, Mitchell is the anti-Angel Martinez. He has an elite chase rate and walks nearly 12 percent of the time, but has an atrocious whiff rate and strikes out in nearly a third of his at-bats, which is one of the worst K rates in the league.
Mitchell does have both elite bat and sprint speed. His exit velocity and hard rates are in the top 10% and his barrel rate top 11% (so close!). Mitchell also has one of the worst air pull rates in the league, and a ground ball rate about 10% higher than league average, which accounts for his low home run total compare to his excellent power metrics. If Mitchell could swing and miss just a bit less and increase that fly ball rate just a tad, he’d be a star.
That’s a beautiful process chart. Above the mean decision value, great power output, but could improve his contact rate. I also wish he ran a little more, but he’s been caught five times on 14 attempts, so I understand it. Still, there is a lot of talent here, and he should be rostered at a much higher rate. I don’t really expect his K rate to improve much, as it’s been consistent throughout his career, but I think Mitchell is a great fantasy trade deadline target whether you’re competing for a championship or looking toward next season.
Dalton Varsho, Outfield, Houston Astros – 21% Rostered
After giving us and the Jays three useful months (.700+ OPS with a handful of dingers and steals) Varsho collapsed in July. The 30 year old slashed just .205/.241/.241 with no homers and just four RBI over 24 games (83 at-bats) for the month.
Even the lavishly colored process chart can’t hide how ugly Varsho’s production was in July. He had a nice spike in contact and power output at the end of June, but the bottom just fell out after that. His decision value, and power output dropped precipitously. There isn’t much to be optimistic about under the hood either.
Varsho’s hard hit and barrel rates rest in the bottom third of the league and his exit velocity on the year is under 87 MPH, which falls all the way in the bottom 10%. “Wait!” you say? Isn’t Houston one of the best parks in the league for extreme pull hitters? and doesn’t Varsho have one of the highest air pull percentages in the league? Why, yes it is, and yes he does. DLRF has very knowledgeable readers. But alas, Varsho bats left-handed and Dalkin Park’s dimensions primarily favor right handed pull hitters. In fact, Varsho’s expected home runs by ballpark is identical for his old and new home. So unless you really buy into the team change igniting his bat, I don’t see much reason for optimism here. He’ll play great defense though.
Risers
Tyrone Taylor, Outfield, Chicago Cubs – 2% Rostered
Taylor was traded to the Cubs along with Clay Holmes at the deadline. He’s been absolutely on fire, slashing .342/.432/.921 with six homers and 25 combined runs and RBI over the last 30 days. And all that production came in just 38 at-bats because Taylor is on the short side of a platoon. He’ll likely stay in that same role with the Cubs, both because the Cubs have very good outfielders already, and because Taylor has hit just .180 against righties.
Taylor has below average exit velocity and hard hit rates, but a strong 12% barrel rate. He has an above average K rate but a poor walk rate. He has zero steals on the season while being caught twice, but he does have good speed, and the Cubs have attempted more steals than the Mets, so there could be an uptick there.
But really Taylor’s value to you comes down to roster space. He’s batted .300 with a .900 OPS and five homers against lefties in just 77 plate appearances this season. He mashes southpaws. If you have room on your bench and daily lineups, this a sneaky valuable player who can be a difference maker in a close matchup.
Joc Pederson, First Base, Texas Rangers – 13% Rostered
I’ve held off including Joc because he’s been a utility only player all season. But he recently made his fifth appearance at the cold corner this season, which means he’s eligible to play 1B in standard Yahoo formats. This is fabulous news if it applies to your league. Joc has been pretty good all season, but he’s slashing .348/.375/.739 with five homers in just 14 games (46 at-bats) since the All-Star break.
The 34 year old lefty slugger is showing he’s still got it. He’s up to 20 dingers on the year, he’s sporting a hard hit rate just under 49%, an exit velocity just under 92 MPH and a barrel rate over 11%. He strikes out more than your average batter, but he also draws more than his fair share of free passes. Joc doesn’t play much against lefties, but that’s good since he’s batting .181 against them.
If my prose didn’t convince you, just ogle that process chart for a minute. Joc is popping off since the break. He doesn’t have to sit in your UTIL anymore (depending on your league settings) and needs to rostered in more than 13% of leagues.
Griffin Conine, Outfield, Miami Marlins – 4% Rostered
The Marlins, with their league-lowest $75 million dollar payroll, do not have a position player who is not on a rookie contract. The Dodgers, by contrast, have the highest payroll in the league at $407 million dollars this year. I’m not going to solve this issue in this article, but that’s the gap as it exists today. The top spending team is spending five times as much on player salaries as the lowest spending team.
Back to your normal programming, Jeff Conine’s kid is having a breakout season. He’s 29 years old, so it’s a bit of a late career style breakout, but after battling a litany of injuries over the past few seasons, he looks healthy. That good health has translated into a .277/.346/,617 slash, with five homers in 14 games (47 at bats) since the Midsummer Classic.
We always do rates before the chart, but I’m going switch it up here.
We can see that Conine’s power output has been good all season. And that tracks since his lowest monthly OPS was the .869 he posted in June. He did play just eight games in June though. But his contact rate dipped through most of July and his decision value has lagged all season, until very recently. This is reflected in his underlying rates too.
Conine has robust power metrics. A 91.5 MPH exit velocity, a nearly 17% barrel rate and a hard hit rate over 55%. But, like so many sluggers I write about, he has a pesky K rate issue. A 33% chase and a 37% whiff rate add up to a K rate over 30%. But he also walks at a 10.5% clip, which helps a lot when those Ks start to pile up. I really like what I’m seeing from Conine – maybe not as much as I like what I’m seeing from Garrett Mitchell, but Conine is a better bet for power and average, while Mitchell should offer a little more speed. Mitchell plays for a better team, but Conine is more likely to be available, and if he is, could be a big power boost over the last couple months of the year.
That’s it for week 20. I hope you had a fun deadline and that your rooting interest got better. Thanks for reading and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
