We’re kicking off this edition of DLRF with a TWO WAY PLAYER ALERT! Kelsie Whitmore is tied for the WPBL home run lead with eight dingers in 10 games. Her pitching stats are less impressive, but she is 1-1 with a 7.80 ERA through four starts. Gigi Schiano has been the League ace so far. She has pitched to an impressive 2.84 ERA over 19 innings, and is the only pitcher in the WPBL with over 11 innings and an ERA under 3.00. However, her 1.84 WHIP suggests the dam may break sooner rather than later. There are only four teams playing in the inaugural season of the Women’s Professional Baseball League, so it would be a little tough to run a fantasy league, but I have high hopes for the future!
Fallers
Bryce Miller, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners – 42% Rostered
Back on July 23rd, Bryce Miller was sitting pretty with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and K/BB ratio over seven. Since July 24, he’s posted a 7.92 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a 21:15 K:BB ratio. I’m using those dates because Miller recently revealed that he’s been dealing with a minor latissimus dorsi injury since July 24th. Things really came to a head over the weekend though. He walked three batters in a row twice against the Cubs. He only allowed two hits in the game, but both cleared the fence.
His next two scheduled starts are at Toronto this coming Sunday, and then a home matchup against the Athletics, who are missing at least five regular hitters. These would normally be attractive starts, but with the way Miller has performed lately, coupled with the point of the season we’re at (I have one league already in the quarterfinals), it’s too risky.
If you want to be an optimist, or simply don’t have a more attractive option available, I can see holding Miller through the weekend in the hopes that his struggles have been related to the lat issue, and that he’s somehow healed up despite pitching on his normal schedule. If he does start on Sunday, you will at least know where you stand in your matchup and understand the risk.
I don’t love that plan, but when I’m seeing Aaron Nola, Gage Jump and Connor Prielipp on the wire as upcoming probable starters, I get it. Miller was fantastic for a few months and made us all feel very smart for stashing him. But that hasn’t been the case for a full month now and without an IL stint, I’m not risking my season on a quick bounce back.
Adley Rutschman, Catcher, Boston Red Sox – 73% Rostered
It’s been a few years since Rutschman was really an offensive dynamo, but he was having a nice season in Baltimore, slashing .251/.331/.433 with eight homers in 67 games. In the 12 games he’s played for Boston, Rutschman is slashing just .146/.255/.244 with one homer and 12 Ks.
On the bright side, Adley’s plate discipline is still elite. He’s in the top 5th of the league in chase, whiff and strikeout rates, and he’s walked in more than 10% of his plate appearances. He already has six walks as a Bostonian and his xBA on the season is .261, 25 points higher than his actual average.
His quality of contact has been worse with Boston however. He’s hit line drives at just a 10.3% rate (he was over 28% in Baltimore) with a 48% ground ball rate (38% with Baltimore). But this does cover a very small sample of just 12 games and 47 plate appearances. His process chart is somewhat reassuring.
We can see a recent dip in power output, but otherwise his decision value and contact rates look good. I think this is likely just a cold streak that coincides with his transition to a new team. I do wonder how much adjusting to a new pitching staff will be his focus though. Catching is a lot of work after all. I certainly don’t think he’ll keep up a .179 BABIP, but if he keeps hitting grounders at an elevated rate, his average will suffer. I don’t think this is a panic and bail situation.
Royce Lewis, Third Base, Minnesota Twins – 50% Rostered
First off, it’s great to see Royce stay healthy and on the field for a few months in a row. But hee was really starting to gain some momentum too, and that’s cooled. He had an excellent June, belting five homers with a .279 average, cooled off a bit, but was still productive in July and was tearing the cover off the ball in early August. He was batting .413 with an OPS over 1.100 for the first half of this month. But over the last two weeks he’s batting just .190 with a 7:1 K:BB ratio.
The slumps are to be expected, as Lewis carries whiff and chase rates that are both above 32%, which all adds up to a 24.7% K rate that sits just above the bottom 25% of MLB hitters. His walk rate is sub par, but barely. Thankfully, Lewis has an above average hard hit rate and exit velocity and a barrel rate in the top 25% of MLB hitters.
His process chart does show some of the variance we expect with high K rate sluggers, but his overall trend is extremely positive. The Twins have been in the bottom third of teams in terms of runs scored over the past month, so his team context isn’t likely to be helpful. His batting average is going to be questionable with his elevated K rate, but he’ll likely still provide a handful of homers and steals down the stretch. Much like Adley, I think this is more of a cold stretch than a time to panic.
Risers
Pedro Ramirez, Second Base and Third Base, Chicago Cubs – 4% Rostered
I’ve been wanting to include Pedro Ramirez for months. I’ve mentioned him a few times as a player to keep an eye on, but the playing time just hasn’t been there. Now, thanks to an injury to Dansby Swanson, Ramirez has started in 11 out of the last 12 Cubs games, including nine consecutive contests. Over those 11 games, the Cub rookie is batting .279 with a .782 OPS, one homer, two steals and a 9:3 K:BB ratio. On the season, he’s slashing .290/.347/.439 with three homers and seven steals over 171 plate appearances.
He’s produced a nice 43.2% hard hit rate, a middling 89.5 MPH average exit velocity and a poor 4% barrel rate. He chases a bunch (34%) but doesn’t whiff much (22%) and his overall K rate is under 19%, which is a great rate for a rookie. He’s also got plus speed and qualifies at two very useful positions. I love guys that slot in at CI and MI.
So it’s a bit of a shame to see his process chart trending downward over the last month. His contact ability and decision value has remained consistent, but his power output has lagged. And it is true that of his last 12 hits, only three have been for extra bases. However two of them, a homer and triple, have come in Ramirez’s last two games and it’s absolutely reasonable to think he could heat up as he continues to play everyday and gets into a rhythm. I’m a big fan. I think Ramirez can be a useful player while Swanson is on the shelf and I think he could be part of your (and the Cubs’) long term plans.
Rafael Flores, First Base and Catcher, Pittsburgh Pirates – 17% Rostered
Flores was the key return in the David Bednar trade last season, and his recent performance might even make Yinzers stop complaining about that trade in particular and Ben Cherington in general. (HAHAHA, no it won’t.) Flores was called up on August 1st, but played in only three games between then and August 12th. Since then however, he’s started in 10 out 11 games and has batted .308/.357/.744 with five homers. What’s even crazier is that two of those homers came in that one game in which he didn’t start!
Flores’ underlying power metrics look great so far. He’s got an exit velocity over 90 MPH, a hard hit rate over 45% and a robust 19% barrel rate. He’s also walking at a 12% clip, and I love sluggers that take walks. However, he’s also got a chase rate over 30% a whiff rate of almost 35% and a K rate over 30%. So the power looks real, but his xBA sits at just .234, well below his current .266 batting average.
This is the profile we see most often in this space: big power, big strikeout rates. Flores’ walk rate is a big help, and the bar for catchers is much lower than other it is for other positions. The Buccos can still hit, and I think Flores should and will get the majority of starts behind the dish for the rest of the year. Endy can’t stay healthy and Hank Davis hasn’t seen the Mendoza line since 2023. I think Flores can offer some good pop, but don’t expect the batting average to hold in positive territory.
Nick Sogard, First Base, Second Base, and Third Base, Boston Red Sox – 25% Rostered
Sogard got a bit of time for the Sox back in May and produced a solid .350 OBP, but not much else over a small, dozen game sample. But since he returned to the Majors at the end of July, he’s been red hot. The versatile infielder has slashed .294/.411/.435 with two homers and a 21:19 K:BB ratio over 24 games (114 PA).
Sogard’s calling card really is his plate discipline and on-base ability. He’s chased less than 22% of pitches out of the zone, whiffed on less than 20% of the pitches he’s swung at, and struck out in just 17% of his plate appearances. He also has an elite, 15.5% walk rate. If he doesn’t live on first base, he at least has a time share.
But his power metrics lag behind his on base skills. He’s produced just a 27% hard hit rate, a 4.8% barrel rate and an average exit velocity a smidge over 86 MPH. However, he’s been hitting the ball with more authority lately. Over the last week, Sogard has five multi hit performances in seven games. More importantly, six of his 12 hits over than span have been for extra bases. In those seven games, he’s launched two dingers and laced four doubles while walking more than striking out. His process chart reflects his recent surge.
It’s too small of a sample to suggest it’s anything other but a brief power surge. However, Sogard has such a safe floor with his elite on base skills, and offers such great position versatility that the risk is minimal and the upside is impossible to ignore. In OBP leagues he’s a must add right now.
That’s it for week 23. We’re really down to the regular season wire, so good luck out there deep leaguers! As always: Thanks for reading!
