Hello again Deep Leaguers! Welcome back for Week 6. This season is moving fast, as we’ve already seen a fun group of call-ups but also some big injuries to big names this past week. Trout, Jazz, and Shota all look to be out for a while, and Triston Casas likely won’t return this season, so we have roster holes to fill! But first, the recap that opened the Week 5 article was well received, so I’m going to do it again. Recap was a terrible term though, so this week I’m calling it…
Deep League Risers and Fallers Week Two In Review
Week Two Fallers: Michael Toglia, Garrett Mitchell and Jake McCarthy
This will be quick.
Toglia has already appeared in the fallers section twice this season. He was struggling mightily to open the season, but I suggested holding, or even trying to acquire Togs if you could. He did heat up briefly during Colorado’s last homestand, going 6/23 with two of the three homers he has to his name this season, but then reverted to his road form and went 0/12 with 7 strikes over four games in San Fran.
Verdict: I don’t blame myself for preaching patience in week 2, but Togs has been a K machine and it hasn’t gotten any better. Big swing and a miss here.
Garrett Mitchell has all the bat speed and leg speed you can ask for, but really struggled to get anything going, slashing just .206/.286/.294 with three steals, but no homers before landing on the IL with an oblique strain. Mitchell is still just 26 years old with a couple elite underlying metrics. I’d still hold.
Verdict: Incomplete due to Injury
McCarthy had zero hits in 25 plate appearances back in week 2 and I didn’t understand why he was still rostered at 26%. He continued to struggle, resulting in a demotion.
Verdict: Nailed this one.
Week 2 Risers: Matt Mervis, Tyler Mahle and Geraldo Perdomo
I was optimistic Matt Mervis could be a decent power source, but alas he’s batted just .148 since appearing in DLRF (although he does have four dingers). But those homers aren’t enough to make up for the terrible ratios, and his whiff rate has ballooned over 42%.
Verdict: Whiff
Tyler Mahle only has one win since I wrote that I was tentatively optimistic he would reach mixed league relevance. But, he’s recorded a 1.13 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 24 innings since then and is the 12th ranked starting pitcher in standard formats as of today. He was even good against the Cubs and I was worried about that one.
Verdict: Nailed
I thought Perdomo would be a nice batting average and on base booster, who would get plenty of run and RBI opportunities batting near the top of Arizona’s lineup wihile Ketel Marte was hurt. He’s batted .269 with a .410 OBP since April 9th, collected 16 RBI and scored a dozen runs. He’s even launched three homers and swiped seven bags. He’s done all that I expected and more. But he has batted 9th a few times since Marte returned.
Verdict: Nailed it and then some.
Overall not quite as well nailed as week one, but Mahle and Perdomo have been tremendous assets so far. Onto Week 6.
Fallers
Jace Jung, Third Base, Detroit Tigers – 1% Rostered
When I mentioned fun call-ups already happening this season, Jace Jung is not who I was thinking about. Josh Jung’s little bro wasn’t entirely tearing it up at AAA before being promoted. He was reaching base at a .409 clip thanks to a 20:22 walk-to-strikeout ratio and had six dingers in 88 plate appearances, but he was batting just .239.
Jace has continued to draw free passes in the big leagues, walking seven times in 37 PA. However, he is struggling to make contact, slashing just .100/.270/.100 with no homers or steals and just a handful of runs and RBI. His 25.7% whiff rate and 27% strike out rate aren’t untenably bad, but that accompanies a 5% barrel rate and 40% hard hit rate. He’s also batting in the bottom third of the Tigers’ lineup and been on the bench two of their last four games.
His Process chart doesn’t suggest we’re missing anything either. Above average decision value supports his strong walk rate. But his week contact rates and a complete lack of power to speak of thus far are also evident. Jace could be an intriguing long term target, especially in OBP leagues, but I don’t see him helping a team right now.
Caleb Durbin, Second, Third and Short, Milwaukee Brewers – 7% Rostered
Durbin plays three infield positions and was a solid on-base guy and speed threat, swiping 113 bases with a strong 137:116 walk to strikeout ratio and a .371 OBP over 294 minor league contests. He has been really good at putting the ball in play, striking out just thrice in 57 MLB plate appearances. But he’s attempted just two stolen bases and has been caught half the time! His overall .240/.316/.360 line is entirely uninspiring.
His underlying metrics match his surface output pretty perfectly too. Durbin is right at the top of the league with an 11.7% whiff rate and a minuscule 4.9% K rate. He’s carrying a low .220 BABIP, but considering his average exit velocity of just 84 MPH and 0.0% barrel rate on the season, I wouldn’t call him unlucky. This is Caleb Durbin doing what he does, it just isn’t very exciting. At best he could be a minor source of stolen bases if he starts running more, but he isn’t hitting, probably won’t start hitting, definitely won’t hit for power, and isn’t walking enough to be an OBP boost.
Pavin Smith, First Base and Outfield, Arizona Diamondbacks – 23% Rostered
Smith is batting .301 with a .996 OPS on the year, but has been ice cold lately. The lefty slugger is batting just .143 with a .654 OPS and just a single homer and two RBI over the last two weeks. Smith is in a rather strict platoon and saw himself riding the pine for half of Arizona’s games last week. But that’s it. There is nothing wrong here.
We can see in the process chart that Smith’s contact rate has dipped a bit under MLB average over the last couple weeks, but his decision value is still excellent, as are his power metrics. He does have rough whiff and K rates that rank in the league’s bottom 10%, so he might run into cold streaks from time to time, but he also has a 94th percentile barrel rate, an average exit velocity over 90 MPH and an elite 20% walk rate. He routinely bats cleanup versus righties in the league’s fourth best offense. Don’t worry about Pavin, and use this cold streak as a chance to pick him up if you can.
Risers
J.P. Crawford, Shortstop, Seattle Mariners – 19% Rostered
Crawford is riding a 13 game hitting streak dating back to April 19th. Over that span he is batting .385 with three homers, 13 runs driven in, twelve runs scored and an 8:9 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His process chart supports his on base and contact driven approach, as you can see the upswing in his contact rates (which were above average already).
Crawford has also slid into the leadoff spot for the Mariners for their last five games, following the injury to Dylan Moore. This should give him a lot more run scoring opportunities and at bats in general, considering he was batting ninth for most of the season. Crawford’s career high for dingers in a season is 19, set back in 2023, but that’s the only season where he’s hit more than nine, so I wouldn’t expect his power surge to continue. I do think he should be a good source of average, OBP and runs as long as he’s leading off.
Luis Urias, Second and Third Base, Athletics – 5% Rostered
Urias didn’t get into much game action until April 20th, but has started every game for the A’s since then, and has been scorching hot, batting .292 with four of his five homers, and a .928 OPS. The power might be a bit of a mirage, as Urias has a below average barrel rate, and just an 88.7 MPH average exit velocity and 34.5% hard hit rate. But his chase, whiff and K rates are all in the league’s top ten percent or better.
His process chart paints a rosier picture than my words do, and Urias did slug 23 dingers back in 2021. Still, he has just 57 homers over 510 MLB games and a career .391 slugging percentage. Urias could definitely be a big help, especially since he can slot at CI and MI, but count more on the batting average and on base abilities than the power he’s currently flashing.
Colt Keith, First Base and Second Base, Detroit Tigers – 10% Rostered
Keith could have waited one more day to start heating up so I could just use April/May splits for dramatic effect. Alas, he began to heat up before the calendar flipped. Keith slashed .171/.318/.200 through April 29th, but has turned it on with a .286/.444/.871 in the week+ since. All three of his homers on the season have come since the sun rose on 4/29.
His season long underlying metrics are still pretty ugly. Keith’s 85.4 MPH average exit velocity is in the bottom 5%, his 34.4% hard rate in the bottom 20% and his 8.2% barrel rate is below average. But none of that is surprising, as he was pretty bad for almost all of April. His elite walk rate and chase rates were the only thing Keith truthers could hang their collective hats on.
I’m gonna lay one more process chart on you here, with the contact chart as well.
We can see that Keith was making average, to above average swing decisions for most the year, but has struggled and continues to struggle making quality contact. There is a sharp upturn at the current end of his Process chart, which supports his recent mini-breakout, but it’s tough to trust since the his contact chart isn’t showing the same, or any, upswing.
Keith is still just 23 years old, slugged 38 homers and batted .300 over 239 minor league games before making the Tigers’ Opening Day roster last year. Detroit has been the fifth highest scoring team this season and Keith has consistently slotted in the middle third of the lineup. He has the MiLB track record and is getting opportunities. If he can make more consistent contact, Colt Keith could be a major deep league asset. Keep your eye on this Tiger.
That’s all folks, thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
