DFS Daily Breakdown – July 23

Happy Friday! We have a 14-game slate with a bunch of terrific pitching and some very price-friendly stacks. Outside of all that, several excellent value plays make it easier to smash in some one-off players. The first game begins at our usual 7:05 EST, and the weather should cooperate nicely today. The only spot of concern is in the NYY@BOS game. However, the perception looks like, at worst, it will push the game back. I’ll offer up a friendly tip, follow Mark Paquette(@DFSMLBWeather) to stay updated. And, onto the slate!

 

Four games having Implied Run Totals(IRT) over ten(WAS@BAL, STL@CIN, DET@KC, LAA@MIA). This is somewhat funny because I don’t believe many would call a few of these great offenses. However, let’s scale this back and look team-by-team. The Dodgers carry the highest IRT and nearly a three-point favorite. The shocker, to me, is the Royals drawing a 5.5 IRT against Wily Peralta, who has been highly effective on the season.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Listed first is my cash game SPs, the safest of options with the ability to return a solid amount of DFS points:

• The first things that jump off the page are Freddy Peralta draws the White Sox in an NL park. They will lose the DH, and Giolito will take a bat. Basically, take those stats listed and throw them out the window. After the 1-through-3 hitters on Chicago, I have no fear in Peralta’s ability to mow down two-thirds of the lineup. This is a terrific spot to play Peralta, and he likely will gain a bit of roster% because of it.
• My second cash SP is a dead-even tie between Zach Wheeler and Lucas Giolito. Taking either one might depend on your risk tolerance. Wheeler has been the steady-eddy performing SP that keeps going deep into games and piling up the Ks. Now, I wouldn’t call Giolito a total risk, but he has thrown a few clunkers at times. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if he struck out double-digits tonight because he is pitching against an NL team. That usually bodes well for AL pitchers.
• We need to touch base on Gerrit Cole. I think there is way too much shade being thrown at Cole after the two blips. He quieted the naysayers with back-to-back double-digit K performances and looked like the Cole of old. Sure, Boston can smash, but there will be plenty of Ks to keep his point total worth it.

 

Listed first is my GPP SPs; these options offer high upside with a lower price point:

 

Pitcher	Matchup	ISO	wRC+	K%
Tyler Mahle	STL at RHP	.151	96	18.4%
Frankie Montas	SEA at RHP	.139	94	25.1%
Joe Musgrove	MIA at RHP	.142	86	26.1%
Alex Cobb	MIN vs. RHP	.173	95	21.5%
Patrick Corbin	BAL at LHP	.104	88	24.8%

• I am going to lump them all together here. Typically, as the salary comes down on any SP, the risk shoots up. However, these SPs offer plenty of upsides (especially in the strikeout department) to rival the cash arms in points. Grabbing any SPs lower than this point would be an extreme risk, I wouldn’t suggest. If I had to pick a favorite from the bunch, it would be Frankie Montas.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

My stack focus comes in three ways: 1) the chalk, 2) the potential, and 3) under-rostered. There is so much suspect pitching on the slate; grabbing a few stacks with different outcomes should be helpful. Also, allow you to spread the risk in your bankroll.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The matchup is against a Rockies pitcher outside of Coors, added to a potent Dodgers offense that demolishes RHP. The mixture will likely add up to a massive offense day for LA. With Mookie Betts out of the lineup and Cody Bellinger still struggling, the lineup will get very different. I am a fade the chalk person. So, I won’t be playing this stack too much. But, if you’re playing a Dodgers stack, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Will Smith, and A.J. Pollack should be the core.

 

Washington Nationals

• The temperatures are picking up in Baltimore, which is a very hitter-friendly park in the warmer months. I’ll continue to pick on Jorge López, who I am sure is a nice guy but poor SP. His three most thrown pitches have an xSLG% over .420 and allowed 13 HRs on the season. Additionally, he walks too many batters (9.6%) and strikes out too few (20.9%) while also getting barrelled at a 9.1% rate. Give me all the Nationals in any size tournament today. The core players are Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Josh Bell.

 

San Francisco Giants

• The Giants are a team that doesn’t get enough respect for what they have done in 2021. That is why I am targeting them today; I believe the field will roster them somewhat but not enough. While I can’t overlook the IRT, I also think it might be a bit lower than a few others when it shouldn’t. This team reminds me of the Tampa Bay Rays and has many interchangeable parts because they heavily platoon. Lastly, the other significant aspect of a Giants stack is their affordable salaries and allow you to pay up at SP. Core players: LaMonte Wade, Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski, and Alex Dickerson.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are meant to be players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players.

I’m taking a page from my colleague Rich Holman’s (@RichardoPL83) book and provided my favorite cash lineup. When I target cash players, I try to stick with bats between $3000-$5000(on DK) and $2500-$4000(on FD). If there are outstanding missteps in salaries, we can go a little higher or lower, but the overall goal is to have a balanced lineup. For pitching, I rarely vary outside of my top 3-5 pitchers.

Good luck!

 

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