DFS Daily Breakdown – July 7

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! DraftKings features a 9-game main slate, while FanDuel is rocking eight games with both slates starting at 7:05. The lone game not on the FanDuel slate is game two of the Mets/Brewers doubleheader. There’s rain in the forecast for the Phillies/Cubs game. After taking an “L” yesterday because of the late Mets/Brewers postponement, I’m likely avoiding Zack Wheeler for cash game purposes. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!


Implied Run Totals


Welp, I guess we’re stacking the Blue Jays. With an implied total of 6.3 runs, they’re on top of our options by a full 1.3 runs. From a pitching perspective, there are currently five teams with a total below 4.0 runs, and that’s without the Mets’ starter being announced yet. As of this writing, FantasyLabs has Andrew Heaney projected to start for the Dodgers, which does not make sense because he’s on the Angels. I’m expecting Julio Urias to be on the mound for the Dodgers, which would most likely place the Marlins below the magical 4.0 implied run total. Let’s take a look at our starting pitchers for the day.


Starting Pitchers


On the starting pitching front, I’m going to let our implied totals dictate our options for our starting pitchers. Our targets are Luis Garcia ($9,600 DK, $9,700 FD), Alex Wood ($8,500 DK, $8,300 FD), and Chris Paddack ($8,700 DK, $7,600 FD). I’m also including the stats for Zack Wheeler ($10,300 DK, $11,200 FD) and Alec Mills ($7,400 DK, $6,000 FD), just in case the weather shifts in Chicago. Finally, I’m throwing in Julio Urias ($8,300 DK, $8,900 FD), but keep an eye on the Dodgers situation. ESPN lists Urias as the starter, while DraftKings has David Price as a probable opener. Let’s breakdown the matchups:


Pitching Matchups


If there was no rain in the forecast, choosing our starting pitchers would be simple. Wheeler and Wood (attorneys at law) stand out as the clear two best options. Both the Cardinals and Cubs offenses have been struggling, and that 31% strikeout rate from the Cubs kisses the air as if I just had a spicy meatball. If the weather shifts and the Phillies/Cubs game is on like Donkey Kong, I’m rolling out Wheeler and Wood.

If that game doesn’t play, I may be in trouble, as I do not like the looks of the other matchups. The Athletics and Nationals have been top 10 offenses over the last 30 days, making me hesitant to use Garcia or Paddack in cash games. Pivot time! If I need to swap off Wheeler because of the rain, I’m likely heading down to Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD) against the Orioles. Ryu has not been his ace-like self this year, striking out just 19.4% of the batters he’s faced. The good news is that the Orioles have been rough against lefties posting a .127 ISO and 87 wRC+ while striking out at a 25.8% rate against lefties. While I’m praying that the Phillies/Cubs game plays, I do like the idea of my two starting pitchers being in the $8k range in order to pay up for the Blue Jays.


Hitter Stacks


The team that’s going to be chalk today is the Blue Jays. With a 6.3 implied run total, it’s going to be tough to ignore them. They face Matt Harvey, who just “held” the Astros to two earned runs over 4.2 innings. I will be fitting in a five-man Blue Jays stack one way or another. The top five hitters are all priced up, while the bottom four are priced below $4,000. My goal is to fit in as many of the top five that I can – Guerrero, Bichette, Semian, Springer, Hernandez – and fill in with the cheaper guys. Let’s take a look at some options to round out our bats today:


Hitting Matchups


While the Astros are certainly a viable offense, they have the toughest matchup. That’s not to say that they can’t get it done, but in cash games, I’m looking to minimize risk, making them a GPP play. While I think the Blue Jays will be popular, it’s difficult to ignore just how much of a juggernaut that Fernando Tatís, Jr. has been. I’m not likely to get up to him, but there is a build that I like where we pay down in our Blue Jays stack and pay up for Tatís.

The team that I’m likely rolling with as my three-man stack is the Giants. Not only have they been really hot against righties, but two of their hitters up top are priced pretty cheaply. LaMonte Wade ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD) and Alex Dickerson ($2,800 DK, $2,500 FD) and really affordable and their prices should allow us to pay up for Mike Yastrzemski ($5,000 DK, $3,200 FD).


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above:


Value Plays


If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:


Cash Game Lineup


A logical 2v2 that I also really like is Bichette and Grichuk instead of Tatís, Jr. and Rojas; you’ll just have to swap out Jansen for another punt catcher.

Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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