DFS Daily Breakdown – September 19

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Today we get a 12-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a start time of 1:05. As of this writing, there’s no precipitation in the forecast across the country. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

My good lord, this is going to be a crazy slate. We currently have nine teams with implied totals north of 5.0 runs and I think we can make the logical assumption that the Blue Jays will also be above that mark. Leading the pack at 6.9 (noice) runs is the Red Sox. They’ll likely be the main feature of my cash game lineups. On the flip side, we have eight teams with an implied total of 4.0 runs or below. I also think we can make the assumption that the Twins implied total will also come in below 4.0 runs. This should give us plenty of options for both our pitchers and stacks. Let’s take a look at some of our pitching options.


Starting Pitchers


While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups

When we have this many options, we can be a little nitpicky. In cash games, I’m going to fade Shane McClanahan and José Berríos as they’re both returning from injuries. Berríos avoided an IL stint but was considered a little iffy to make today’s start with an abdomen injury. My third fade is actually Clayton Kershaw, which pains me some because this matchup with the Reds looks really good. The Dodgers have limited Kershaw’s workload to just 4.0 and 4.1 innings in his last two outings making me believe they’re trying to preserve his arm for the playoffs. I’m still in to play Kershaw in GPPs, but I think we have safer options for cash games today.

To me, Gerrit Cole ($10,900 DK, $11,500 FD) stands out as the top dog on this slate. He’s priced just below Kershaw and has Sandy Alcántara ($10,200 DK, $10,800 FD) and Lucas Giolito ($10,400 DK, $9,300 FD) right below him, so I’m hoping his rostership stays in check. Even if it doesn’t, who am I to say no to a 34% strikeout rate?

I would love to figure out how to pay up for my second pitcher because I really like the previously mentioned Alcantara, Giolito, and Nathan Eovaldi ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD). The latter’s price may be in that range where I can figure out some hitting value to fit in Eovaldi with Cole.

If I can’t figure out how to fit Eovaldi in, I don’t hate heading down to Eric Lauer ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD) and Zack Greinke ($8,500 DK, $7,800 FD). I believe that order is my preference due to Greinke’s strikeout rate.


Hitter Stacks


I think we’re going to have a tough time paying up for the Red Sox bats that we want while forcing in Cole and, fingers crossed, Eovaldi. While there’s not a ton of value in the Red Sox projected lineup, Bobby Dalbec ($3,300 DK, $3,500 FD) stands out as a lock. Let’s take a look at our other hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

As I’ve already mentioned 675 times, I’m planning on paying up at pitcher today. Knowing that I’m going to focus on what value bats that I want to play to hopefully let me fit in a stud bat or two. If you’re making GPP lineups where you have some extra salary, I’d love to stack the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox.

This is a little strange to say because it’s never the case, but the Yankees are pretty affordable as a stack. Aaron Judge ($5,000 DK, $4,200 DK) is their most expensive bat, but DJ LeMahieu ($3,700 DK, $3,500 FD), Joey Gallo ($3,900 DK, $3,300 FD), and Brett Gardner ($2,400 DK, $2,300 FD) are really nice values.

Jarred Kelenic ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD) is one of my favorite plays on today’s slate. Over the last two weeks, he’s smashed four homers against righties and his price just has not caught up to his level of productivity.

Three mid-range bats that I like a lot are Tyler O’Neill ($4,200 DK, $3,600 FD), Kyle Tucker ($4,200 DK, $3,900 FD), and Yoán Moncada ($4,200 DK, $3,800 FD). O’Neill has mashed six homers against righties over the last two weeks and gets a very exploitable matchup in facing Jake Arrieta. Moncada has had a late-season rebound and like Kelenic, his price has not caught up.

There are a decent amount of other values on today’s slate, but I’ll include those in my “Value Chart”.


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s a sample cash game lineup:

Sample Cash Game Lineup


Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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