DFS Daily Breakdown – September 26

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Today we get an 8-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a start time of 1:05. As of this writing, there doesn’t look to be any precipitation in the forecast. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We currently have six teams with an implied total of 4.1 runs or less and that’s without lines for two games. That gives us a decent amount of potential pitchers to choose from on a short slate. There are just three teams with an implied total of 5.0 or more. That doesn’t include the Cardinals or Cubs, who will be playing in a game where the wind is blowing out to centerfield in Wrigley. Let’s take a look at some of our pitching options.


Starting Pitchers


While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups


John Means ($8,200 DK, $8,900 FD) looks like a really nice mid-range lock to me. The Rangers have struggled mightily against lefties and Means is on a stretch of allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. Four of his opponents in those starts were the Yankees x2, the Rays, and the Phillies.

Tyler Mahle ($10,100 DK, $9,000 FD) is an easy fade and I’ll likely be sprinkling a couple of shekels on the Nationals’ team total. Mahle’s splits are pretty insane – 6.10 ERA at home vs 1.85 ERA away. He might be my only full fade amongst these options.

Due to their strikeout upside, I’m going to be looking to fit either Lucas Giolito ($10,900 DK, $9,500 FD) or Freddy Peralta ($9,600 DK, $9,400 FD) into my lineup today. My lean is to Peralta as Giolito has struggled a little in each of his last three starts, going 5.0 or fewer innings in each contest.

If you need to save some cash, I like Shane Baz ($7,500 DK, $6,900 FD), as he faces the lowest team total on today’s slate. I’m just not sure we’ll need to go there.


Hitter Stacks


Let’s take a look at our hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

Once I saw that the Rays were facing a lefty, I knew I was rolling with the Rays as my main stack. And then I saw their prices and got very excited. One through five are very affordable thanks to Yandy Díaz ($3,500 DK, 3,200 FD) and Manuel Margot ($2,800 DK, $2,200 FD). If you need some extra value, lefty masher Jordan Luplow ($2,700 DK, $2,300 FD) is slated to bat sixth. I’m likely full-stacking the Rays, but feel free to just use the value pieces if you like one of the other offenses better.

A fun game stack will be the Cubs and Cardinals thanks in part to the forecasted 14 mph wind blowing out to centerfield. This game hits the holy trinity of DFS for me – good game environment, questionable pitching, and cheap pricing. Out of both team’s projected starting lineup, just Tommy Edman ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) is priced at $4,000 or above. That means Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900 DK, $4,300 FD), Frank Schwindel ($3,300 DK, $3,900 FD), and Nolan Arenado ($3,900 DK, $3,800 FD) are all priced below $4,000. They’ll likely be pretty popular, but a Cubs/Cardinals game stack allows pay up with both your pitchers.


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s a sample cash game lineup:

Sample Cash Lineup

Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Account / Login