Only a four-game slate tonight starting at 7:15 ET. There might be some rain in Cleveland, so be sure to double-check before game time.
Today’s SPs and 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious about its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Zac Gallen ($11,000 DK, $10,700 FD) gets the Padres, not a matchup that excites you because they don’t K much (21.7%, 12th lowest), but he also just faced them and pitched well.
Still, I think I’d rather roll the dice on Lance Lynn’s ($9,400 DK, $9,400 FD) redemption tour with the Dodgers given that we’re getting a discount and the Brewers have been a significantly worse offense (.302 wOBA, sixth-worst). The Dodgers are also a significantly stronger favorite (-148) which doesn’t hurt.
Edit: I somehow forgot to mention Lynn’s counterpart, Corbin Burnes. He enters tonight’s game against a tough Dodger lineup having been kinda mediocre of late with just a 10.1% K-BB% over his last four turns making. He has upside, of course, this just doesn’t seem like the spot for it making him more of a tournament play if you’re multi-entering.
The results weren’t great for Tarik Skubal in his latest start against Boston. But a few things stood out: he tossed a season-high 94 pitches, his 5.29 PLV was a season-high, and his velocity was still very good. He makes a lot of sense as an SP 2 on DK ($7,200) against a Guardians lineup that doesn’t have much firepower. Just makes sure to check the weather.
What about Xzavion Curry? It’s the Tigers and a four-game slate. Eh, I think we’re OK crossing him off.
Sure, José Quintana ($6,700 DK) pitched well in his last start against Atlanta but I’m just not buying it. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside and his PLV of 4.83 is below average. For $500 it’s hard for me not to side with Skubal as an SP 2 given the difference in strikeout ability.
Bats Main Slate
Waino, it’s been a heck of a ride, but watching you chase down win #200 with an 8.78 ERA and 2.09 WHIP has not been pretty. No reason not to load up on the Mets. DJ Stewart showed some pop in the minors and is a potential punt OF.
If you’re like me and not buying Quintana’s recent success, then the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Jordan Walker, and Tyler O’Neill could be interesting as the likely contrarian side of this game. The Cardinals were blanked last night by the A’s but they’re also fifth in team wOBA.
As mentioned, Curry (5.02 overall PLV) isn’t really all that exciting, so it’s not a bad spot to take a chance on a Tiger bat or two, mostly Kerry Carpenter or Spencer Torkelson.
The D-Backs have an implied total of about four and a half runs, not something that would typically grab your attention but, yeah, it’s a four-game slate and Rich Hill is not fooling anyone at this point.
Gabriel Moreno is a punt play at catcher, and remember Kyle Lewis? Well, he’s back after posting a 1.113 OPS in 47 games with Triple-A Reno and costs very little. Ketel Marte will get at least two at-bats as a righty or however long Hill lasts.
Corbin Burnes‘ splits against RHB have been lacking this year noted by a 4.59 xFIP and it’s reflected in his PLV splits above too. I wouldn’t want to pick on him on a full slate but going after him with Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez or Will Smith might be a way to think a little outside the box on a short slate.
On the other side of the game, if you want to take a shot at Lynn’s still-not-great 5.88 ERA/1.39 WHIP, lefties have given him fits so Sal Frelick, Carlos Santana, and Christian Yelich make the most sense on paper.