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Sunday’s slate features six games on FanDuel. Note that DraftKings has opted to include the Cardinals/Brewers game bringing their main slate of games to seven. That game, however, has already been postponed, so if you’re playing over there be sure to ignore it. This afternoon features another game at Coors Field. This time a battle of sub-par righties awaits us in Zach Davies (24.6% CSW, 7.6% K-BB% in 2019) and Antonio Senzatela (22.6% CSW, 3.3% K-BB%), so expect to see plenty of bats from this game.
Top SP: Aaron Civale, ($9,600 DK, $8, 400 FD) at MIN
This is easily one of the worst pitching slates of the young season. However, based on the early season returns, Aaron Civale is easily the most impressive pitcher of the slate. His debut against the White Sox was impressive as he tallied nine K’s including an eye-popping 39% CSW through six innings against the White Sox. The key for Civale was an emphasis on his breaking pitches in lieu of the fastball. The stick in the mud here, though, is a matchup against the Twins. Considering the slate features high-priced bats at Coors it doesn’t make a ton of sense to pay up for a still unproven pitcher who is a road dog against an excellent offense. But, he’s certainly worth mentioning on a slate that’s really bereft of any standout options. Another thing to note about Civale was that he was able to reach 100 pitches in his first start, that’s a number that very few if any of the other arms on the slate have access to.
Another option is Yonny Chirinos (25.8% CSW, 16.2 K-BB% in 2019), whose Rays are the second biggest favorites on the board according to the Odds Page over on FTN. While the matchup is a much more appealing one against the Orioles, Chirinos doesn’t really have the strikeout upside we’re looking for, and he only threw 68 pitches in his debut.
Honorable Mentions: Yonny Chirinos, TB ($8,600 DK, $7,900 FD) at BAL.
Value SP: Kyle Wright, ATL ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD) vs NYM
Kyle Wright was roughed up in his first start on the road against the Rays. Wright though, is a young pitcher with upside, as our own Josh Sperry detailed in his piece from earlier this offseason. In particular, he’s got a slider that’s shown plenty of swing and miss ability. It’s a tough matchup against a powerful Mets lineup but considering his price and the context of the slate, Wright doesn’t need to do too much to return a profit.
Honorable Mention: David Peterson (GPP), NYM ($7,000 DK, $6,600 FD) at ATL.
OF Trent Grisham, SD ($5,200 DK, $3,300 FD) at COL
As our own Trevor Hooth mentioned over a year ago in his article, Trent Grisham is someone we should be paying close attention to. After being traded to the Padres this past offseason, he’s been impressive in the early going. Today, he’ll tee off at Coors Field against Senzatela, who posted the lowest CSW% among starters who threw 100 innings last year. Hitting second, holding the platoon advantage, and possessing outstanding plate skills, he’s a great way to get exposure to the Padres his afternoon. Going by the DFS tools over at FTN, Grisham projects as one of the strongest bats of the slate, right behind his teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres currently have an implied total well past seven runs.
Honorable Mentions: Manny Machado, 3B ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD) at COL; Nolan Arenado, 3B ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD) vs SD; Trevor Story, SS ($6,000 DK, $4,300 FD) vs SD; Fernando Tatis Jr, SS ($5,900 DK, $4,200 FD) at COL; Kris Bryant, 3B ($4, 800 DK, $3,500 FD) vs PIT; Ronald Acuna Jr, OF ($5, 500 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. NYM.
3B Yoan Moncada, CWS ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) at KC.
We mentioned the White Sox and Yoan Moncada yesterday and they performed well. The price today on Moncada is simply too good to pass up hitting second today against the RHP Jacob Junis who coughed up 31 home runs and allowed a .352 wOBA against lefties last season. Meanwhile, Moncada torched RHP last season to the tune of a .391 wOBA and 148 wRC+.
Value Batter: OF Luis Robert, CWS ($3,600 DK, $2,800 FD) at KC
With Tim Anderson having hit the IL, Luis Robert has been leading off for the White Sox. This is just too cheap of a price for one of the most dynamic young talents in baseball. He’ll face off against the Royals and Jakob Junis (27.7% CSW, 13.7% K-BB% in 2019) who will be returning from a long layoff due to illness.
Honorable Mentions: Colin Moran, 1B/3B ($3,000 DK) at CHC; Franmil Reyes, OF ($3,900 DK, $2,400 FD) at MIN; Bradley Zimmer, OF ($3,200 DK, $2,300 FD) at MIN; Eloy Jimenez, OF ($3,700 DK, $3,000 FD) at KC; Jose Abreu, 1B ($3,900 DK, $3,000 FD) at KC; Josh Naylor, OF ($2,500 FD) at COL.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at KC (RHP Jakob Junis)
We’ve already mentioned two White Sox hitters, so why not just go all-in? And besides, where’s the fun in stacking Coors? I’m kidding about that second part, of course. This might seem like a bit of a chase after scoring 11 runs last night, but this sets up well again for the White Sox. Junis allowed an xwOBA of .357 (14th percentile) to opposing hitters, and had an xERA of 5.50 (13th percentile) last season. Particularly on DraftKings, the White Sox are a lineup that’s priced really affordably considering the upside they present. Keep an eye on Nomar Mazara, he’s closing in on a return, and could provide even more power here at a discounted price too along with Edwin Encarnacion, Yasmani Grandal, and Eloy Jimenez.
Honorable Mentions: COL vs. SD (Davies); SD at COL (Senzatela); ATL vs NYM (Peterson).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)