Monday brings us a six-game slate with some potential rain in Cleveland, so that will be worth watching out for. The Blue Jays should dominate plenty of lineups tonight as they head to KC to take on the inexperienced southpaw Daniel Lynch. For pitching, limited options in the upper tier should make a few mid-tier options fairly popular.
Top Tier Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.
Cristian Javier: ($ 9,100 DK, $9,000 FD): @ OAK (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 85 pitches.
Robbie Ray: ($ 9,500 DK, $9,500 FD): @ BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,300 DK, $8,500 FD): vs WSH (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.
I do like Ray as a potential bounce-back candidate moving forward given his 16.2% SwStr rate, but I was looking for more of a discount in a difficult matchup at Houston. On the other side, Javier makes the most sense of the three options above $9,000 on DK considering that the Mariners have the lowest implied total on the slate at just over three and a half runs with the Astros installed as tonight’s top favorite (-162). Carrasco has been effective but considering his modest 21.4% K rate, he doesn’t seem like a must as the second-highest-priced arm on DK.
Mid-tier Pitching
Blake Snell: ($8,100 DK, $7,500 FD): @ STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
Snell should end up being one of the more popular options given that he’s shown off a 30% K rate through his first three starts. The Mets are a tough offense as they are tied for second with the Yankees with a .327 team wOBA, but Snell’s reasonable salary on both sites should attract a lot of attention on tonight’s short slate.
Hunter Greene: ($7,600 DK, $ 7,300 FD): @ BOS (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 73 pitches.
Greene was a mixed bag in his latest start at Fenway; eight strikeouts but that came with four earned runs and led to an underwhelming score. Armed with a fastball that averages 98.6 MPH, the rookie is a volatile option with strikeout upside that’s well suited for tournaments. Tonight he hosts the Diamondbacks who could give him a boost given that they strike out at a 25% clip, the second-highest in baseball. The 6.19 ERA and 1.52 WHIP are ugly but an 18.2% K-BB% and a more decent 4.68 xERA suggest better days ahead.
Jon Gray: ($6,600 DK, $8,100 FD): vs TB (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.
Cal Quantrill: ($8,500 DK, $7,700 FD): vs KC (W) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Note that the Guardians game has some potential rain in the forecast, so be sure to double-check. I think if you’re picking here you almost have to side with Gray given that he’s coming off a 12-strikeout game his last time out against the Rays and the steep discount on DraftKings. Quantrill on the other hand seems overpriced especially on DraftKings considering his 15% K rate backed by a 7% SwStr rate. He’s been decent, but even on a short slate, it’s hard to have much interest in him given the lack of K upside. Pairing Gray and Snell on DraftKings allows for some flexibility with the rest of your roster and could be a popular route to take given the lack of elite options tonight.
Noah Syndergaard: ($7,000 DK, $7,900 FD): @ NYY (L) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 45 pitches.
Thor is coming off two duds now in his last three starts, but the dip in salary at least puts him on the radar. Not a great lineup to bounce back against though. Boston has turned it on lately and is now sixth in team wOBA at .322, just ahead of the Jays. As an aside, recent call-up Jarren Duran is a good bet for a stolen base against Syndergaard if he’s in the lineup tonight and is very cheap on both sites.
Bats and Stacks
- TOR (5.5 implied run total) at KC Daniel Lynch (LHP) 9.5 K-BB%, 4.81 ERA, 1.56 WHIP: Expect to see a ton of Blue Jays tonight, making them a potential team to consider fading for tournaments. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has hit a home run in three of his last five, should dominate a large portion of rosters, especially on DraftKings at just $4,900.
- LAA (4.8 implied run total) vs BOS Michael Wacha (RHP) 8.1% K-BB%, 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP: Wacha comes into tonight’s game with great ratios, but a 16.8% K rate and a .253 wOBA versus a .324 xwOBA indicates that he’s walking a tight rope with not much room for error. Plus, there’s a bad Sox pen lurking. Jared Walsh has a great track record against RHP and is a value play on DK for tournaments.
- CIN (5.0 implied run total) vs ARI Madison Bumgarner (LHP) 8.4% K-BB%, 3.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP: The BAT has Bumgarner pegged for a 5.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP the rest of the way making him a regression candidate and that could start tonight at the Reds’ launching pad.
- CLE (4.7 implied run total) vs TEX Jon Gray (RHP) 17.2% K-BB%, 4.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP: Gray has teased plenty of times before, is coming off easily his best start of the year, and he’s cheap, so the Guardians could carry potential leverage in tournaments starting with José Ramírez. Josh Naylor (.378 xwOBA) has been very productive too. Recent call-up Oscar Gonzalez has shown some pop in the minors and is dirt cheap.
Value Bats
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