Saturday brings us an eight-game slate, without further ado let’s take a look!
Top Tier Pitching
Luis Garcia is the biggest favorite on the board, the only knock on him is pitch count as he’s been held under 90 in four of his last five starts. Dylan Cease gets a tough opponent in the Red Sox, whose team wOBA of .332 ranks third on the year. In his last start against the Royals, Cease only got through five innings but the strikeouts were there, nine total backed by a 36.7% CSW. He can struggle with inefficiency at times but there is no denying his strikeout ability, his K rate sitting at 31.1% on the year a remarkable turnaround considering last year’s 17.3%.
Walker Buehler’s dud of a start against the Giants his last time out provides a potential buying opportunity on DraftKings, where his salary has dipped to $9,400. The Padres might also be down one of their better hitters in Jake Cronenworth who fractured his finger last night. Luis Castillo is, as always, an excellent target for tournaments. My guess is that most rosters will drift toward Buehler as he has a much safer floor (yes, I’m ignoring that last start against the Giants) at only $400 more on DraftKings.
Mid-Tier/Value Pitching
Both Corey Kluber and Michael Pineda are facing limited pitch counts so we can ignore them tonight. Charlie Morton should appear on a ton of rosters. He makes the most sense as he is clearly underpriced considering both his skills and his opponent, the Miami Marlins whose .289 team wOBA since August 1st ranks 28th in baseball, and their 26.9% K rate in that span trails only the Cubs.
Brady Singer is unique in his ability to generate called strikes with his sinker. He’s far from reliable, but we’ve seen him produce some very good lines. He looks like the cheapest SP 2 option on DraftKings and faces the Twins who have a .304 team wOBA (23rd) since August 1st. Chris Flexen doesn’t bring a ton of strikeout upside to the table but he has been otherwise very good at limiting damage holding hitters to a modest .317 xwOBA along with showing excellent control (5.1% BB rate). The D-Backs have had a .300 team wOBA since August 1st (24th).
Bats and Stacks
- CWS (5.1) vs BOS Connor Seabold (RHP) The Red Sox have yet to officially announce a starter for tonight’s game. But, it looks like Seabold is a potential option. He’s actually shown some fairly decent ability in the minor leagues this year posting a 17.8% K-BB% across eight starts for the Triple-A Woo Sox. But, you know how these rookie debuts can go and this is an excellent lineup with a ton of upside. Eloy Jiménez (.329 xwOBA this year) and Yoán Moncada (.350 xwOBA) both seem too cheap on DraftKings.
- HOU (5.3) vs LAA José Suarez (LHP) 12.6% K-BB, .298 xwOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.79 xERA: Suarez has actually been pretty good against righties holding them to just a .290 xwOBA through ten starts. Still, I think you have to give the edge to a top offense like the Astros. Alex Bregman (.334 xwOBA) should be a popular target at just $4,200 on DraftKings as he provides strong OBP and power upside. Don’t hesitate to include lefties in your stacks as Suarez has actually been a little worse against them this year (.322 xwOBA allowed). Kyle Tucker (.399 xwOBA) and Yordan Álvarez (.376 xwOBA) both have excellent upside here.
- LAD vs SD (4.8) Chris Paddack (RHP) 17% K-BB, .329 xwOBA, 1.27 WHIP, 4.70 xERA: Paddack recorded just a single whiff in his last start. Granted, it was the Astros but even still it’s not a ringing endorsement. The Sheriff will find little reprieve tonight facing a tough Dodgers lineup making this an interesting spot to go for tournaments. Gavin Lux was recalled so he’s there at 2B if you’re searching for a punt in tournaments.
- MIN (5.1) vs KC Brady Singer (RHP) 12.8% K-BB, .303 xwOBA, 1.54 WHIP, 3.93 xERA: We mentioned Singer as a potential SP 2 option but he could certainly struggle tonight. Just take a look at that WHIP. I would probably stick to Byron Buxton (.367 xwOBA), Josh Donaldson (.382 xwOBA), and Jorge Polanco (.345 xwOBA) as contrarian spends for tournaments as they are clearly the most talented hitters here.
- CIN (4.4) at Miles Mikolas (RHP) 10.5% K-BB, .316 xwOBA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.30 xERA: Mikolas has not looked great in his return from Tommy John surgery. It’s not surprising, but anyways I would absolutely have interest in targeting the Reds in tournaments as they’re a powerful offense that shouldn’t draw too much attention today. Mike Moustakas is a FanDuel play at $2,300 where he is also 2B eligible. Joey Votto (.404 xwOBA) seems too cheap on DraftKings at $4,200 and Nick Castellanos (.363 xwOBA) is also priced affordably at $4,600.
- SEA (4.9) vs ARI Humberto Castellanos (RHP) 6.7% K-BB%, .314 xwOBA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.24 xERA: The Mariners aren’t an exciting offense but I think you can pick and choose here by virtue of Castellanos being one of the weaker pitchers on the slate. He’s really struggled against lefties, ceding a .377 xwOBA to them this year along with just a 16.7% K rate.
- ATL (5.1) vs MIA Elieser Hernandez (RHP) 19.9% K-BB%, .314 xwOBA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.24 xERA: I don’t really want to pick on Hernandez but Atlanta does pop with an implied total hovering just over five runs so they deserve to be on the radar at least.
Value Bats