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Happy Labor Day! Hopefully, you’ve got a BBQ on tap for today and can enjoy the day! We get a couple of strange six-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, so let’s dive in. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out.
Top SP: Max Scherzer, WAS ($10,400 DK, $11,000 FD) vs. TB
Max Scherzer sits atop his throne as the top pitcher on today’s six-game slate. According to FTN’s Lineup Optimizer, Scherzer has the highest projection and the Rays team total is a paltry 3.8. Despite the sunshine and rainbows, Scherzer’s outlook isn’t without a storm cloud. On the year, Scherzer’s been touched up some. He’s allowed a 27.1% line drive rate and has walked batters at an 8.5% clips—both highs for Scherzer over the last 10 years. Despite the struggles, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get seven scoreless innings out of Scherzer. There’s a reason he’s one of the best in the game.
The Rays offense has been pretty middle-of-the-pack of late, posting a .334 wOBA against righties over the last 14 days. One of the things they do well is walk as they’ve put up a 10.9% walk rate during that time. However, when we zoom in some, that team wOBA drops below .300 and the strikeout rate has spiked to 28.7% over the last 7 days. I’m not locking Scherzer into all of my lineups, but he certainly has the highest upside on this short slate.
Honorable Mentions: Dinelson Lamet, SD ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD) vs. COL; Zac Gallen, ARI ($9,200 DK, $10,600 FD) at SF
Value SP: Kevin Gausman, SF ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD) vs. ARI
Kevin Gausman heads back home after a start in Coors to face an Arizona team that is just tossing its bats in the dumpster. Over the last 14 days, the D-Backs have posted a .286 wOBA against righties. When we zoom in some, that number drops to .264 over the last seven days. While they have been walking at a 12.7% clip, their hard-hit rate is just 25.5%. Gausman on the year has been very good, sporting a 25.7 K-BB%. He has been touched up by the long-ball as he’s allowed 1.77 HR/9. Luckily for him, the D-Backs haven’t shown much pop at all. At this price, I love Gausman’s upside due to his K-rate.
Honorable Mentions: Zach Plesac, CLE ($7,600 DK, $10,300 FD) vs. KC; Charlie Morton, TB ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD) at WAS
OF Randal Grichuk, TOR ($4,200 DK, $3,300 FD) vs. NYY
You know it’s a weird slate when Randal Grichuk has the second-highest projection of any outfielder. The Blue Jays slugger has mashed left-handed pitching this year, posting a .341 ISO in 46 plate appearances. In those PAs, he has a strikeout rate of just 17.4% and a hard-hit rate of 44.1%. I like Jordan Montgomery, but he has struggled against right-handed hitters this year. In 77 PAs, the southpaw has allowed a .387 wOBA with a 30.6% line drive rate. Grichuk is one of my favorite plays on the slate and I love his price.
Honorable Mentions: Juan Soto, OF ($5,300 DK, $4,700 FD) vs. TB; Wil Myers, OF ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD) vs. COL
SS Fernando Tatis Jr., SD ($5,800 DK, $4,600 FD) vs. COL
We have to spend our money somewhere, so it might as well be on the most exciting player in the game. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a monster all year and today, he gets to face a lefty. In 51 PAs this year against left-handed pitching, Tatis has posted a .295 ISO and .379 wOBA. He sports an 11.8% walk rate and a 56.3% hard-hit rate against southpaws this year. Kyle Freeland has been decent to start the year, but his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and his line drive rate is the highest of his career. Not a great combination when you’re going up against one of the hottest players in the game.
Honorable Mentions: José Ramírez, 3B ($5,200 DK, $3,800 FD) vs. KC; Manny Machado, 3B ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD) vs. COL
Value Batter: OF Michael Brantley, HOU ($3,600 DK, $3,300 FD) at OAK
Here we go again with the underpricing of Michael Brantley. Since returning from the IL, Brantley has been hot and currently ranks eleventh on FTN’s Hot Hitter Report. While I’m rooting for Frankie Montas to turn things around, I’m not just going to ignore what he’s been doing. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his home run rate is up. That’s a bad combination, making Brantley one of my favorite values on today’s slate.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Naylor, OF ($2,300 DK, $2,300 FD) vs. KC; Carlos Santana, 1B ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD) vs. KC
Lineup Stack: Blue Jays vs. Yankees (LHP Jordan Montgomery)
I was all prepped and ready to write about Teoscar Hernández and then I saw he was hurt. That’s okay, I’m still rolling out a righty stack against JorMont. After Grichuk, I’m looking to Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($4,500 DK, $3,100 FD), Lourdes Gurriel ($4,300 DK, $3,000 FD), and Danny Jansen ($3,500 DK, $2,300 FD). With Hernandez being out, I’m likely to roll out the Blue Jays as a three-man stack, but like any righties in the Blue Jays lineup. Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: Padres vs. Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland); Astros at Athletics (RHP Frankie Montas)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)