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Top Play SP: Jose Berrios, MIN ($10,800) at BAL
Last night’s rainout at Camden Yards will push back Jose Berrios to game one of today’s day/night doubleheader. He’s been excellent in the early going posting a 27.5% K rate along with a very tidy 4.9% BB rate. He’ll get a really anemic Orioles offense this afternoon that so far has posted a team wOBA of .292 and wRC+ of 83.
Honorable Mention: Jameson Taillon, PIT ($9,100) vs SF.
Value SP: Derek Holland, SF ($6,800) at PIT
Here’s a fun one. Of the 15 starting pitchers in the bump this afternoon, the highest K rate in 2019 belongs to who? You guessed it—none other than the dutch oven Derek Holland. His K rate currently sits at 29.7%. Now, I don’t think we can expect that to continue, but as Nick Pollack will attest to, it’s not all smoke and mirrors either. He did some good things last year too, notching a K rate above 25% over his last 19 starts. He’s dirt cheap this afternoon and it would appear there isn’t much risk here against a Pirates offense that’s none too imposing in the early going with a .293 team wOBA and 80 wRC+.
Honorable Mention: Julio Teheran, ATL ($7,200) at CLE.
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4,400) vs. NYM
It looks like the Cardinals may have been priced for a matchup against Jacob DeGrom. He, however, was recently shuttled to the IL and hence the Cardinals will get a much better matchup this afternoon against Chris Flexen. Through 92 innings in AAA last year Flexen posted a 19.7% K rate and 4.41 xFIP so this looks to be a spot to attack. Paul Goldschmidt is just too cheap here and an excellent play in all formats.
Honorable Mention: Marcell Ozuna, ($4,600) vs. NYM (Chris Flexen) or If Weather Permitting Aaron Judge, ($5,100) vs KC (Heath Fillmyer)
OF: Nelson Cruz, MIN ($4,600) at OAK
I hope you’re all sitting down. I don’t think this Orioles pitching staff is too good. And that includes Dan Straily. His fastball last year was alarmingly bad allowing a .392 wOBA (.422 xwOBA) along with 14 home runs. Nelson Cruz, on the other hand, is still an excellent hitter evidenced by a quick trip to his Statcast page—last year showed red numbers across the board including a .389 xwOBA good for the top 4% of MLB.
Honorable Mention: Jorge Polanco, ($4,400) at BAL (Dan Straily) All the Twins!
Value: 3B Matt Carpenter, STL ($3,800) vs. NYM
The Mets have not yet announced a starter for this afternoon’s game in St. Louis. Whomever they tab shouldn’t present a terribly uninviting matchup for the Cardinals offense, including their leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter. He’s priced to move here and his outstanding on-base skills (.374 OBP in 2018) make him a safe option to consider in all formats.
Honorable Mention: (If Weather Permitting) Jose Abreu, ($3,800) at DET (Daniel Norris) Consider also Robinson Cano ($3,600) vs. STL (Miles Mikolas)
Top Stack: MIN at BAL (RHP Dan Straily)
Dan Straily is easily the worst pitcher of the slate. Last year, his K rate sat at a well-below-average 19.1% while allowing a .350 xwOBA. The past two seasons, he has surrendered 51 home runs and that was when he was playing half his games in cavernous Marlins Park. So far this season, he has allowed a 53.7% hard-hit rate along with a .444 xwOBA and four home runs. As an extreme flyball pitcher, a move to Camden Yards will probably not help his ERA. The Twins should figure to put up some crooked numbers in the run column at Baltimore this afternoon.
There are a couple of other interesting offenses in the White Sox against a suspect Daniel Norris (4.22 xFIP last year) and the Yankees against Heath Fillmyer (4.60 xFIP last year), but both of those games could be washed out by some bad weather so keep a close eye on the forecast.
Honorable Mention: Cardinals vs NYM (Chris Flexen).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.