The Dynasty Baseball Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.]
The fantasy season is almost over, but the action never stops for dynasty managers. Late-season runs can drastically change a player’s value and is important to determine which runs of success are sustainable. Staying up to date can be challenging even for the most dedicated fantasy managers. That is the goal of these dynasty performance reports the Pitcher List dynasty team is producing. I have the privilege of breaking down which pitchers are seeing their dynasty value fluctuate. Keep reading for the major league edition of the dynasty pitcher performance report.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Pitchers with Rising Dynasty Value
Sean Manaea– NYM
Sean Manaea has shown flashes of fantasy brilliance. Flash back to his rookie season and Manaea posted a 3.86 ERA across 144.1 innings. Although his strikeout rate has never jumped off the page, two plus breaking pitches helped many fantasy managers dream about his potential. Unfortunately, things have never seemed to materialize for Manaea who has bounced around the league the past few seasons. Entering 2024, the Mets marked Manaea’s fourth team in as many seasons. In 2022, it was the new sweeper that was going to take Manaea’s game to the next level. In 2023, it was the added velocity to his revamped four-seam fastball that would unlock his upside. By 2024, nobody in the fantasy community had much of any expectations for Manaea.
The first half of 2024 marked subtle improvements but was largely more of the same. His ERA (3.46) and FIP (3.77) were both way better than his career numbers. However, Manaea also had three starts in which he surrendered at least six runs. The real issue for fantasy managers was the lack of strikeout upside. Through his first 18 starts of the season, Manaea was striking out just 24% of the batters he faced while his walk rate was up at 10%. He was a fine player to hold on to the back of fantasy rosters and start in favorable matchups, but he lacked the upside many look for in their pitchers.
Manaea could have been content with his solid season, but he has taken his game to the next level in the second half. Since the All-Star Break, Manaea has lowered his ERA down to 3.39 while seeing both his strikeout and walk rates improve. Things have been even better recently. Across his last eight starts, Manaea’s ERA is just 2.81 with a 3.10 FIP. The lack of upside in his profile has completely disappeared. Manaea is striking out 31.8% of batters while walking just 5.6%. Strikeouts are key to a pitcher’s fantasy value and Manaea is proving to hold plenty of that.
Major League players constantly make adjustments to try and improve. You see it with hitters who adjust their stances constantly (Cody Bellinger). You also can notice it with pitchers like Logan Gilbert who constantly adjust their grips and arsenals to try and see what works best. Looking at Manaea’s pitch arsenal throughout his career, he clearly fits that description. However, the change that unlocked Manaea’s elite second half has been his release point. Manaea has lowered his arm angle and release point in the second half transforming his arsenal. Manaea has also completely changed his horizontal release point coming at more of an angle adding deception, especially to left-handed batters. During the first half, Manaea’s Stuff+ was down to 86. Since adjusting his arm angle and release points, Manaea’s Stuff+ has jumped to 91 (97 since August 16).
Here's the uncut version on how Manaea changing his arm slot has changed the way hitters are responding to his fastball https://t.co/zGDaz0HfJ8 pic.twitter.com/UvvgCRC4Au
— Laura Albanese (@AlbaneseLaura) September 9, 2024
At 32 years old, Manaea is not the flashiest name in the dynasty. He has been around forever and has never reached the potential many thought he had early in his career. While the shine on his name has worn off, this recent change to his arm angle seems to finally be the adjustment Manaea has been searching for all his career. Strong stretches of performances from veteran pitchers should not automatically change a player’s long-term outlook. However, a major adjustment like this is a tangible change that could lead to sustained success for Manaea. His dynasty value is rising with every strong performance.
*Manaea continued his strong second half on Wednesday pitching 6.2 innings of one-run ball while striking out 8. The strikeouts are here to stay!
Bowden Francis– TOR
Expectations for Bowden Francis were virtually nonexistent entering 2024. Drafted in the seventh round by Milwaukee, Francis slowly worked his way through the Minor Leagues before being traded to Toronto in 2021. He made his professional debut in 2022 and pitched another 36.1 innings for the Jays last season. Quietly, Francis was excellent in 20 relief appearances but that did not translate to much dynasty value. A command specialist, Francis lacked the pure stuff to work in high-leverage situations, and he did not seem to have an upside as a starting pitcher. A swingman role seemed to be his long-term outlook which did not provide much optimism for dynasty managers.
Working as a swingman is exactly how Francis started the 2024 season. He made two starts for the Jays to start the year and surrendered 12 earned runs in just 8.1 innings. The Jays quickly moved him to the bullpen for a few long-relief appearances before he was sent back down to Triple-A. Francis returned to the Jays in June continuing to work in as a bulk-inning reliever and occasional starter for Toronto. In 13 appearances, his ERA sat at 4.20 and he was striking out less than 15% of the batters he faced. At 28 years old, there was very little reason to be optimistic about his long-term outlook.
Then, all of a sudden, everything changed. Francis returned to the rotation full-time on August 7 and pitched five innings of two-run ball against the Orioles. An obviously unexpected performance, but what was even more was the seven strikeouts he generated. That strong start lined Francis up for a road start against the Angels which is when the fantasy community really started to pay attention. Francis pitched seven innings of one-run ball striking out eight and did not surrender a single walk. Then, the good starts just continued to roll in. In six starts, Francis has an ERA of just 1.58 while seeing his strikeout rate spike up to 32.1%. His walk rate has remained impeccable and now dynasty managers are left trying to figure out what to make of this. Is this legit? Is Francis a reliable fantasy starter for the rest of this season and 2025?
Fantasy managers should not expect Francis to continue performing as one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, he has made several noticeable adjustments to his arsenal that provide confidence in sustained success. Fracis’ curveball had been dreadful with a -8 run value. According to Baseball Savant, the pitch actually ranked as the worst curve in baseball amongst starters with 50 plate appearances. Prior to August, Francis was throwing this pitch nearly 30% of the time. Since rejoining the rotation, Francis has traded out his curve for a splitter which has been a huge adjustment. The splitter has turned into his most used breaking pitch and is holding opposing batters to a .174 batting average. Batters have also not gotten an extra-base hit off the pitch yet. His splitter grades out with a PLV of 5.10 making it his best offering.
The other issue Francis faced early this season was limiting home runs. This was especially true against righties. His fastball lives at the top of the zone but lacks the velocity to be a true go-to pitch. In August, Francis added a sinker to his arsenal which he has used exclusively against right-handed batters. Since introducing the pitch, Francis’ ground ball rate is up over three percent and righties are no longer consistently taking him deep. Since August, righties are slugging just .153 against Francis with a 0.4 HR/9. Prior to adding his sinker, righties were slugging .596 with a 2.7 HR/9.
Sure, it is easy to say that regression is due. No pitcher, especially Francis, is a sub-2 ERA guy long-term. However, Francis is a completely different pitcher than we have seen before. The splitter gives him a true plus-breaking pitch to pair with his slider. His fastball variations are helping him keep the ball in the yard and keep opposing batters off balance. Although he is 28 years old, dynasty managers should be optimistic about his 2025 outlook. His value has risen a lot in the past month and could continue to rise higher. You might be able to find a dynasty manager trying to sell high on a player they do not believe in. Well, I am here to say that you should believe the hype.
*Notable to say this section was written prior to Bowden Francis throwing eight no-hit innings on Wednesday against the Mets. Francis’ excellent run continued yesterday. If his dynasty value was not rising before, it is certainly rising now.
Honorable Mentions:
Shane Baz– TBR
If are looking for one pitcher who has more dynasty value than his Major League performance suggests, that would be Shane Baz. Baz posted ridiculous numbers throughout his Minor League career before arm injuries slowed down his progression to the majors. After missing all of last season, Baz was still highly regarded in the dynasty community with many excited to see what he could finally do. The results have been pedestrian so far, but things have been improving as of late. Across his last four starts, Baz owns a 2.10 ERA pitching at least six innings in three of four. Baz looks healthy, his velocity looks good, and he is likely to continue improving as he gains more experience. The more professional innings Baz gets, the more his dynasty value will continue to rise.
Ryne Nelson– ARI
Ryne Nelson was simply too good to get pushed to the bullpen. Arizona agreed and has kept him in the rotation despite paying Jordan Montgomery far more money. Nelson has looked like a different pitcher in the second half and is showing no signs of slowing down. Over his past six starts, Nelson has a 3.38 ERA while seeing his strikeout rate increase and his walk rate decrease. His control has been impeccable, but recently Nelson is finding even more success with his secondaries. His ceiling is likely a mid-rotation arm, but that is a big upgrade from where his dynasty value sat at the beginning of the season.
Pitchers with Falling Dynasty Value:
Max Meyer– MIA
Max Meyer once found himself ranked amongst the best prospects in baseball. After the Marlins selected him third overall in the 2020 draft, Meyer dominated the lower levels of the Minor Leagues. His 2.15 ERA through his first 25 professional starts catapulted him up prospect and dynasty rankings. Everybody wanted a piece of Max Meyer and the Marlins even saw enough to promote him to the Major Leagues. This is where his dynasty value took a turn for the worse. Meyer made just two starts before being shut down with elbow soreness and ultimately needing Tommy John Surgery. Meyer missed the entirety of 2023, but 2024 spelled a new dawn for his value. Fully healthy and competing for a rotation spot, Meyer’s value spiked this past spring and many were excited to see if he was ready to live up to his potential.
Injuries opened the door for Meyer to make the Opening Day rotation and things started off great. Meyer allowed just four runs total through his first three starts picking up two wins in the process. Then, in a puzzling move, the Marlins sent Meyer down to Triple-A where he was kept on a strict innings limit. While monitoring innings is part of the game, Meyer was 2-0. The Marlins won just three of the next 15 games they played in. This is just one of the many puzzling moves made by the management team in Miami.
Anyway, back to Meyer. Meyer struggled after his demotion to Triple-A. He posted a 9.24 ERA across his first four starts never pitching more than four innings. Pitchers often struggle after a demotion back to Triple-A. Sometimes, the answer is as simple as they are working on something that the Major League club wants to see improvements in. Making tweaks to their arsenal and stuff can take time. Other times it is confidence that never comes back. While Meyer’s struggles led to a brief dip in his dynasty value, he quickly reclaimed this with strong performances in Triple-A. In his next 11 starts, Meyer posted a 2.98 ERA and saw a spike in his strikeout rate across his last four starts in Triple-A.
Meyer was promoted back to the Major Leagues for a start on July 27 but has not looked anything like the same pitcher we saw earlier in the season. In his eight starts since returning, Meyer’s ERA sits up at 7.20 with an FIP of 6.83. His walk rates, which have been impeccable in the Minor Leagues have jumped up to 10.4% across his last four starts.
The primary issue for Meyer this season has been the long ball. Despite making just 11 starts, Meyer has surrendered a whopping 14 home runs. PLV helps us to paint some of the picture by looking at his bad pitch percentage. Meyer’s bad pitch percentage sits up at 35.7% which ranks in the 29th percentile in all of baseball. Meyer is leaving too many pitches over the zone and opposing batters are making him pay.
The primary concern for dynasty managers should be the lack of strikeouts. Meyer’s slider is undoubtedly a plus offering. This is his most thrown pitch and grades out excellently on PLV. The PLA on this pitch is just 2.33 with an overall PLV scoring of 5.44. Opponents are whiffing over 34% of the time on this and chasing over 36% of the time. After that though, things start to get shaky. Both his fastball and changeup grades out as below-average offerings. His four-seam is generating a whiff rate under 14% and opponents are batting .330 off of it. Amongst the 183 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 plate appearances, Meyer’s four-seam fastball ranks as the 14th worst in run value/100. One plus offering is not enough to become a reliable starter at the Major League level.
Meyer is still just 25 years old with plenty of time to continue developing. However, with each start, Meyer looks less and less like a front-line starter. The best-case scenario for Meyer could be to continue developing a sinker (which he just started throwing) to help balance the struggles of his four-seam fastball. Now on the IL with a shoulder injury, durability concerns are also becoming more prevalent in his profile. Major League struggles and injuries have his dynasty stock falling quickly.
Justin Verlander– HOU
There comes a certain point in (nearly) every player’s career where they are not the player they once were. The great ones, like Justin Verlander, can stave off father time for a while, but eventually, he catches up to everybody. 2024 is starting to feel like the end of the road for one of the greatest pitchers of this generation. 2024 marks the 19th season we have got to watch Verlander pitch on the mound. Dynasty managers who roster Verlander are well aware they are on borrowed time, but his dynasty value has dropped significantly over the past month. At this point, there might not be much left in the tank.
Drafted back in 2004 (yes, before some of you reading this were even born), Verlander has amassed 3,400 innings pitched and owns a 3.42 ERA. The resurgence and advancement of Verlander’s career over the past seven seasons is what makes Verlander truly one of a kind. Just as many began to write Verlander off, he seemingly found a new level of excellence. In his age-33 season, Verlander pitched 227.2 innings with a 3.04 ERA. Over the next six seasons, Verlander has continued to dominate pitching nearly 1,000 innings to a 2.69 ERA. His strikeout rate has been the highest six-season average of his career with an excellent walk rate.
Unfortunately this year, Verlander’s age is showing. After the start of his season was delayed due to injury, Verlander has never seemed quite right. He has made just 14 starts pitching less than 100 innings. The 74.2 innings he has pitched have been a struggle. Verlander’s ERA sits up at 5.30 which would mark the highest full-season mark of his career. His 5.10 FIP is also the highest of his career. 2024 also marks the fourth straight season in which Verlander’s strikeout rate has dropped. His HR/9 rate is also the highest of his career. Just about every metric you can find is trending in the wrong direction for the now 41-year-old Verlander.
As mentioned before, Verlander did not have much dynasty value left. All dynasty managers are well aware that Verlander could not continue pitching at an ace level forever. However, there were many who believed Verlander to be a great value in both redraft and dynasty entering this season. Things have not worked out that way and Verlander’s fantasy value appears to be all out. Verlander owns a player option for the 2025 season, but it would not be surprising to see him hang up the cleats after the way this season has gone.
Honorable Mentions:
Nestor Cortes– NYY
The Yankees have dealt with pitching injuries throughout the 2024 season. Now healthy, the team has had to make some adjustments to their rotation and that includes using Nestor Cortes in a swingman role. After starting 28 games for the Yankees this season, Cortes pitched 4.1 innings in bulk relief for the team last Saturday although he is expected to rejoin the rotation next week. Cortes being the choice to move into the bullpen does no favors to his dynasty value. Although he owns a 1.86 ERA across his last five appearances, Cortes could find himself battling for a rotation spot come 2025. Perception is everything in dynasty value and adding relief risk into his profile clouds his future outlook.
Jon Gray– TEX
After his 11th start on June 12, Jon Gray owned a 2.17 ERA. After not expecting much from the 32-year-old, intrigue was starting to grow in the dynasty community about a player once viewed to have front-end potential. Since things have gone completely awry. Gray has landed on the IL multiple times with various injuries and has struggled to find any sort of consistency when on the mound. Gray has made just eight additional starts this season and owns an 8.03 ERA in those. He has allowed at least seven runs in three of those starts looking like a shell of his first-half self. Now dealing with a foot injury, Gray has already been ruled out for the remainder of the season. With several young pitchers already on the roster and more coming, there is no guarantee Gray will be handed a rotation spot next season.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) | Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire