With the Minor League season in full swing, now feels like a great time to revisit some evaluations of the 2024 draft class, and consider how those takes have evolved. I’ve broken things down by highlighting some of my broader opinions from articles I wrote on the class, and assessing where those stand today. Some views have shifted, while others have only strengthened my conviction.
Heat Check on 2024 Draft Evaluations
Jac Caglianone Won’t Hit at the Next Level
No better place to start than my most controversial opinion in the draft class. I was pretty steadfast voicing my concerns about Caglianone’s ability to hit high level pitching. I mentioned it preseason, midseason, pre-draft, in the offseason, and for good measure while ranking the Royals top prospects. It was borderline obsessive, and the early returns of the 2025 season have me looking massively wrong.
My negative opinion on Caglianone was centered around two factors that I believe make it extremely hard to succeed in professional baseball. The first is the fact that he swings at everything. He is harder to pull data from because Florida uses a different system than where I get my info, but in a small sample size he swung at 28.6% of pitches out of the strike zone. To further prove his aggressive approach, as a Sophomore he walked 17 times in 71 games. This is the most feared hitter in the sport with 33 home runs, walking 17 times in 71 games. That is absurd.
Now, you might say to yourself: He walked 58 times in 66 games during the 2025 college season, he must’ve improved! But when you factor in the 31 intentional walks (compared to just 3 in 2024), the gains in plate discipline look much more modest. His debut pro season backs that up too, with just 15 walks in 50 games, suggesting his approach at the plate hasn’t really changed.
Another concern I had was the amount of movement and effort in his swing. It’s a little harder to convey through text, but think early-career Bryce Harper trying to hit every pitch 500 feet. The good news is that this kind of mechanical issue is usually easier to clean up than approach-related concerns. And to his credit, it looks like Caglianone spent the offseason doing just that. He toned down some of the effort in his swing, and it showed during his impressive Spring Training performance.
Succeeding at the big-league level takes a unique skill set, it’s not just about raw strength or speed. Hitters need an elite approach and the precision to consistently make the right swing decisions and make contact against the game’s best arms. At Florida, Caglianone often “out-athleted” his competition, but that only takes you so far.
This year, though, his talent has been on full display. While the approach still needs work, I’m no longer concerned about his swing mechanics holding up against top-tier pitching. If the approach catches up, he has the tools to be one of the best in the league. Right now, it’s looking like Caglianone might prove me wrong on this one, and I’m more than okay with that.
Nick Kurtz is a Modern Day Elite Hitter
From my potential worst take to my most validated take, Kurtz has looked every bit of a modern day elite hitter since debuting last year. I did a full breakdown on Kurtz after the draft, and highlighted many of the reasons I thought he had the chance to be special. In only 32 MiLB games, he managed to slash .336/.432/.689 with 11 home runs, 10 doubles, and 22 walks. As I am writing this, it is being reported that he is being called up to the MLB team. He has quickly proved that he was the most MLB ready bat in the 2024 draft class.
Kurtz was highly regarded as one of the top, if not the top prospect, entering the 2024 season. He had produced at an impressive rate his first 2 seasons at Wake Forest, but took a step backward during his Junior season. He only hit .306 with 22 home runs compared to the .353 with 24 home runs he hit in 2023. Kurtz was playing through a shoulder injury, and was simply being pitched around. Kurtz walked 78 times in 54 games setting the Wake Forest single season record. While the production wasn’t up to his standard, Kurtz ability to walk was what made me believe he had what it takes to be a modern day elite hitter.
Kurtz’s skill set is built around elite swing decisions. In many ways, the same reasons I was skeptical about Caglianone made me high on Kurtz. He consistently demonstrated the ability to only swing at strikes while making a ton of loud contact—exactly what you want from a modern hitter.
The three core metrics I focus on with hitters are chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate, and Kurtz checked all three boxes for me. As a junior at Wake Forest, he chased just 13.8% of pitches outside the zone, an absurdly low rate. Pair that with a solid 79.6% contact rate and an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph, and you start to see the blueprint of a potential elite MLB hitter.
Kurtz also has a natural knack for elevating and pulling the ball. His left-handed swing is built to lift, with a 41.4% fly ball rate that complements his power profile. Put it all together, 94.4 mph exit velo, 41.4% fly ball rate, 13.8% chase rate, and nearly 80% contact, and you’re looking at the DNA of an elite bat.
Through just 32 professional games, Kurtz has already started to show flashes of that potential, and I anticipate that will continue at the MLB level.
The Yankees Found a Market Inefficiency
The Yankees 2024 draft strategy stood out for many reasons. First, their top selection of Ben Hess was considered a reach after he pitched to a 5.80 ERA as a Junior at Alabama. Second, all 7 of their top selections were pitchers. Many felt this was an odd draft strategy, but I had an inkling the Yankees knew exactly what they were doing.
If you do not follow college baseball, you would not know that home runs are up at an absurd rate. I wrote about how much the run scoring environment has shifted last season. My main reason for investigating these numbers was to better evaluate position players. If it is easier to hit home runs, it must be used in evaluating the top players in the class. But wouldn’t that information also impact the player who is tasked with getting outs? I wrote about that, and the Yankees seemingly agreed.
The market inefficiency that the Yankees seemingly took advantage of was identifying pitchers who gave up a lot of home runs during their college career, but showcased swing and miss stuff. The premise: if you take these pitchers out of the home run friendly college environment, make their competition use wood, and the result should be better performance. Looking at the Yankees draft strategy, it seems that was important to them.
So far this strategy has paid off in a big way. Hess has looked like a potential dominant starter at High-A Hudson Valley with 18 K’s and 3 BB in 9.2 IP while allowing 0 earned runs. Bryce Cunningham, the Yankees 2nd Round Pick has thrown 18 innings at Hudson Valley with 22 K’s, 2 BB, and a 3.50 ERA. Hess has given up 0 home runs, while Cunningham has only given up 1. Griffin Herring, Yankees 6th Round Pick, has 22 strikeouts in 16.2 IP, while only giving up 1 run. Greyson Carter, 5th Round Pick, has shown elite stuff with 17 strikeouts in 10.2 IP. Both Herring and Carter have yet to give up a home run.
Winning in Baseball is all about identifying market inefficiencies before the rest of the league does, and the Yankees did just that. I am fascinated to see what they are able to do with Wyatt Parliament and Thatcher Hurd once they are healthy.
Hagen Smith’s Reliever Risk
Hagen Smith has been a fascinating case study. Command concerns had him bouncing between the rotation and bullpen during his first 2 seasons at Arkansas. During those 2 seasons he averaged 5.4 BB/9, but the stuff was never in question, as he struck out 199 hitters in 149 IP. Every evaluator knew he had ace potential, he just needed to throw more strikes.
Then 2024 happens. He lowered his walks to 3.6 BB/9, and for good measure also saw an uptick in quality of stuff. His FB rose from 92.8 mph average in 2023 to 95.5 topping out at 100.3. The result? 2.04 ERA in 84 IP with 161 strikeouts and just 34 walks. Smith went from a question mark to a sure fire ace level starter in a calendar year.
I voiced some concerns about Smith during the spring last year, comparing his college career to Asa Lacy’s. The main premise was that some pitchers have such elite stuff, that amateur college hitters swing at everything, and it makes it harder to evaluate true command. Hitters in college are more likely to swing at a fastball at their eyes, or a slider in the dirt, than they are in pro ball. I did not conclude that Smith was destined to bust like Lacy, but there were some concerning signs. Then Smith went out late in the 2024 MiLB season, and showed impressive command, pushing my fears aside.
This spring something has changed with Smith. He has walked 6 hitters in 9.2 IP, reverting back to his early career with a 5.6 BB/9. It is very early in the year, and could just be a small sample size, but something worth monitoring. The swing and miss stuff is still elite with 17 strikeouts through 9.2 innings, but if he is going to be the ace level starter he has the potential to be, he needs to look more like the 2024 version of himself.
