Debates are always exciting, and while this will hopefully not be as controversial as the political debates at this time of the year, it is far more entertaining! In fantasy baseball, as in life, there are varying opinions on everything, from the color of the sky (not always blue) to the impact of Isaac Paredes in a wind tunnel at Wrigley. It’s not every day you get to play devil’s advocate against yourself, but here we are! Let’s dive into a few “Would You Rather?” questions based on fantasy baseball’s talented crop of outfielders!
Jarren Duran vs. Corbin Carroll (Top 25)
We’re off to a fast start! Literally! Both players ranked in the 96th percentile for Sprint Speed this season, moving at a brisk 29.6 feet per second. As someone who sees a lot of Duran, I find it hard to believe that anyone is faster than him, but apparently, I’m wrong. Speed and athleticism are definitely at the heart of their offensive profiles, and while I know Duran is fast, Carroll has the production to match. In his two seasons, Carroll has converted 89 of his 102 steal attempts (87.3%) compared to Duran, who has 67 career steals. Advantage: Carroll
At the plate, the comparison is closer than you’d think. They have similar contact profiles, although Duran is consistently more aggressive, both in swing rate and chase, but also has better batted-ball data than Carroll. Both players hit atop their team’s lineup and have ample opportunities for counting stats based on team context, so that’s a wash. So, the difference lies in trying to project who Corbin Carroll actually is versus what Jarren Duran is or will become.
Evaluating Carroll has become much more complicated than Duran due to his ailing shoulder. We think we know what Carroll is capable of, but is he genuinely healthy, and have we seen his best version? If we use the first half of 2023 (pre-shoulder injury) as the starting point for a healthy Corbin Carroll, we can project him as a .290 hitter with around 30 homers, 110 runs, 90 RBI, and 50 steals annually. That’s based on the idea that his production would gradually improve, and his shoulder is fine, although it’s speculation. After all, Carroll is only 24 years old and was finding his stride in the big leagues just as he was hurt.
However, we don’t know the extent of the shoulder damage or if it even exists. Maybe Carroll started slowly in 2024 and made the proper adjustments before his breakout in the second half. Or perhaps that shoulder is hanging by a thread, and we find out in six months that he needs it repaired for the second time in four seasons. There are so many questions with Carroll, making him one of the most challenging players to assess in fantasy and giving me the feeling I should lean toward Duran.
We know that the 2024 version of Jarren Duran was pretty darn good. He has dramatically improved since being demoted to the minors early in 2023. Duran has transformed his offensive profile from a contact-oriented approach to a well-rounded player capable of both hit and power. He’s also transformed his body into a more physical, athletic frame capable of withstanding the grind of a 162-game schedule while playing with reckless abandon as Duran does. Plus, his speed is a game-changer, turning routine singles into doubles and putting immense pressure on the defense.
Duran had a .285 average last season (.295 in 2023) with 21 homers, 111 runs, 75 RBIs, and 34 steals. His jump in batting average is part BABIP-driven and part skill improvement but is also boosted by his speed and ballpark factors. But is that Duran’s peak? His contact rate has stabilized at around 87% in-zone with a hard-hit rate of around 44%. When you factor in batted ball data (90.8 mph Average EV, 106.5 mph Max EV 90th percentile), I see a path to Duran hitting for a .280-ish average and 30 homers to pair with his 30+ steals (plus counting stats).
These players are so similar in their profiles and potential upside that it comes down to their floor. Who is safer? My lean is Duran. The concern over Carroll’s shoulder has impacted my thought process. I believe the shoulder is injured; thus, his floor is somewhere around what we saw last season. With a .250-ish average, 25 homers, 35 steals, and 121 runs scored, Carroll is still a valuable dynasty asset. But I believe Duran has more in the tank, and even though there is a four-year age gap, I give Duran the slight edge. I feel that Duran’s 2024 is the start of a terrific four-to-six-year run as one of the best players in baseball.
Verdict: Jarren Duran, but it’s CLOSE.
Roman Anthony vs. Jasson Domínguez (Top 80)
Red Sox versus Yankees. Roman versus the Martian. Anthony versus Dominguez. Who doesn’t love a good prospect battle? (Speaking of which, keep your eyes open for the 2025 prospect battles between me and Matt Heckman, which will hopefully turn out better results than last season.) These two talents have bright futures ahead of them and represent an incredibly skilled group of young players that will dominate the American League East and Major League Baseball landscape.
In the tale of the tape, Roman Anthony towers over Dominguez. Literally! The 6’2″ 20-year-old has a five-inch height advantage, although as Jose Altuve proves, size isn’t everything. Dominguez’s ability to steal bases is the lone area where either player has a distinct advantage. While it’s true that stolen base production in the minors isn’t always an indicator of future success, The Martian is generally regarded as the better runner. However, Anthony is a better athlete overall with more fluid and natural movement and still projects to be an impactful baserunner in the majors. Advantage: Dominguez
Offensively, their overall production is very similar, although Dominguez has over 100 more games played. Due to the gap in games played, looking at surface stats is pointless, so we must dig deep. The results (shown here) were INCREDIBLE!
Aside from a percentage here and there, these guys are almost identical. One point on their chase rates: both players have above-average plate discipline. I will give Dominguez a pass in 2024, as he was coming back from injury and was pressing to get back to the Show. With that said, I like Anthony’s overall approach better. He’s patient, calculated with his swing decisions, makes terrific contact with excellent batted ball data, and projects to be a more polished hitter with a safer floor.
Dominguez is an incredibly talented player and arguably has a higher upside than Anthony. However, I also feel that his margin of error is smaller, and his range of outcomes is more comprehensive. My biggest concern with Dominguez is that he’s not great from the right side of the plate, but continues to switch hit. It may ultimately lead to a platoon. I’m not saying it will, but his numbers against LHP are rough. If he ditches switch-hitting, what does he become as a left-handed hitter against LHP?
The fun part about this is the great unknown. Dominguez has given us enough at-bats to lose prospect eligibility, but more of an MLB sample is needed to make a judgment. Meanwhile, Anthony is on the cusp of his MLB debut, and we don’t know what will happen. Prospects, my friends. Prospects.
Verdict: Roman Anthony
Teoscar Hernández vs. Anthony Santander (Top 150)
Teo versus Tony Taters is an interesting comparison, especially since both players are free agents entering 2025. Over the past two seasons, both hitters have been valuable assets in Dynasty and have likely led your team to great success. So, as they both look for their next payday, let’s look at who you want in your Dynasty leagues moving forward.
At first glance, we’ve got two similar players with a slight age gap. Hernandez is entering his age 33 season, while Santander is a spring chicken at 30. When you look at the surface stats below, you’ll see two clear outliers that favor Hernandez and one that favors Santander.
Hernandez has a significant lead in stolen bases and is a far superior runner to Santander, who I could beat in a race. In addition, Hernandez has a clear advantage in terms of batting average. The main driver is that Santander is heavy flyball (51.5%), resulting in a lower BABIP and batting average.
On the other hand, Hernandez has the higher groundball rate with a boosted BABIP (.341 in ’24), which helps bump that average. But, while Santander may run a lower BABIP/average, it’s easier to hit home runs with a high flyball rate, and that’s what he does. Over the past three seasons, Santander has 105 home runs to Teoscar’s 84.
The overall offensive profile (batted ball, contact rates, plate discipline) is split. Hernandez thrives in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and expected stats. Santander excels in contact rates, specifically in-zone contact and whiff rates. I noticed that Hernandez has a significantly higher strikeout rate (28.8% vs. 19.4%), although they are equally aggressive swingers, and he chases six percent less often than Santander. The weirdest part about that is Santander’s 76.5% chase contact rate, which is absurdly high and ranks in the top 15 in MLB. Suffice it to say that Santander is a “bad ball” hitter, and it works well!
Looking at my dynasty rankings, I see them one spot apart positionally, as Teoscar is OF29 and Santander is OF30, with 13 spots overall separating them. For dynasty purposes, I lean toward Hernandez. Although he is two years older, the boost in batting average and steals is enough to overcome the slight gap in power. It will be interesting to see where each player winds up, particularly Santander, who could get an even more significant power boost after leaving Camden Yards.
Verdict: Teoscar Hernández