Edward Cabrera’s big league career started with immense hype: he debuted with an upper-90s fastball, an electric pair of breaking balls, and the hardest changeup in baseball. While strike-throwing and health were issues, it was easy to dream on the stuff with the Marlins’ pitching factory. He was a fringe starter when he got his callup, behind a rotation of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and Jesus Luzardo.
The debut season wasn’t as exciting as the stuff, where he posted a 5.81 ERA in 26.1 innings, and the excitement continued to outrun the performance in the coming years. Cabrera dealt with health issues each season, preventing him from eclipsing 100 MLB innings in any season. His 3.01 ERA in 2022 felt like the beginning of him figuring it out, but in 2023 & 2024, he posted an ERA well above 4.00.
Many finally might have looked beyond Cabrera, deciding the ship has sailed on the Marlins starter. Just when they thought they were out, Cabrera pulled us back in. As one of two left from that 2021 Marlins rotation (though both he and Alcantara could be gone next week), Cabrera has stepped up this year to deliver a 3.61 ERA through 82.1 innings. Through subtle pitch changes and a shift in usage, Cabrera’s approach is better and more sustainable than ever.
The Arsenal Got Better
Cabrera’s arsenal appears to be a little different this year, with some changes in velocity and shape enhancing his offerings across the board. He dropped his arm angle by six degrees, and his 36-degree arm angle this season is his first time below 40 degrees. The lower arm angle creates more horizontal movement on pitches because the lower release generates more sideways spin.
Starting with his four-seam fastball, the pitch now has 11.3 inches of armside run (iHB), a two-inch increase from last year. It has lost one inch of vertical movement, now sitting at 13.6 inches of induced vertical break (iVB). The vertical movement is in the dead zone for his arm slot, but the horizontal movement is in the 87th percentile for horizontal movement above expected(among RHP fastballs). The velocity now sits at 96.8 mph, a career best, just ahead of the 2021 96.8 mph. However, he’s unlocked new consistency for his upper band of velocity: 13 of his 19 pitches above 99 mph have been this year.
The fastball has been the smallest beneficiary of these changes, with Cabrera still struggling to throw it for strikes, and hitters are mashing the pitch. It has a 93 Stuff+, up from 90 a year ago, which is a negligible change.
His other fastball, the sinker, has seen similar changes: around two inches more run and an extra inch of drop. This plays exactly into what a pitcher wants out of a sinker, with armside movement and drop being the desired movements on the pitch. Cabrera’s 17.9 inches of run is in the 99th percentile for horizontal movement above expected; only teammate Sandy Alcantara’s sinker is higher. The 8.5 inches of drop is less than expected, largely driven by the velocity. The sinker’s velocity hasn’t changed like the four-seam, as it’s maintained at 96.6 mph. The 101 Stuff+ grade is unchanged from last year; the pitch gets there in a slightly different way.
This year, Cabrera has a lot more command of the sinker, one of the keys to his success. The zone rate on the sinker has increased by 22.0%, giving him much-needed fastball strikes compared to the four-seam. It is still getting hit hard when batters make contact, but more called strikes are setting up the rest of the arsenal.
Cabrera’s changeup might have the most exciting changes from a purely physical perspective. His bread-and-butter pitch now sits at 93.8 mph, up nearly one mile an hour from last year, furthering the hardest changeup in baseball. Nearly 20% of all changeups thrown above 92 mph in the pitch-tracking era have come from Cabrera’s hand. He’s topped out at 97.6 mph on a changeup (!!), coming from the same start where he hit his max fastball velocity.
Like the first two pitches, Cabrera added almost two inches of run to the changeup, putting it in the 90th percentile for horizontal movement. At the same time, the changeup added 2.5 inches of drop, despite the increase in velocity. Despite a 102 Stuff+ (up from 98 last year), Cabrera’s changeup still remains a unicorn.
The changeup still has a similar 36.7% zone rate compared to last year, but he’s getting on top of it more. His 72.4% loLoc% is a six percent increase from last year. Regardless, it’s getting hit harder than last year and earning fewer whiffs. On the surface, that’s a step back for the pitch, but it’s due to the reshuffling of usage.
Next, Cabrera’s slider has undergone minimal overall changes, yet it remains an exceptional pitch. It’s lost around half a tick of velocity, dropping to 88.5 mph, and driving an extra inch of drop. It’s almost a pure gyro slider at 0.8 inches of iVB and -1.5 inches of iHB. Cabrera has done a great job this year, limiting the mistakes on the pitch and putting it in more competitive locations. The slider has seen decreases in its hiLoc% and overall waste%. The Stuff+ has decreased from 109 to 107 year-over-year, with the difference likely driven by the small change in velocity.
Finally, the last pitch in Cabrera’s arsenal is the curveball. Cabrera’s curveball underwent significant changes this year, much like the changeup. The pitch is down a tick in velocity, now at 83.6 mph. In terms of movement, it had the biggest overall change in Cabrera’s arsenal. It added three inches of horizontal break and 4.5 inches of drop, propelling the pitch from a 107 Stuff+ to a 117.
He still uses the curveball in the zone, but the new movement profile has allowed it to become a machine in getting weak contact, called strikes, and whiffs.
The Usage Tweaks Bring It Together
It’s one thing to change pitch shapes across your arsenal dramatically; it’s another to pair usage changes together. The combination is exactly what to look for in a post-hype pitcher like Cabrera.
Against righties, Cabrera has completely moved towards unpredictability. His changeup had been his leading pitch, but it didn’t work as intended. It got whiffs and limited hard contact, but struggled to get called strikes. This was one of the biggest culprits for Cabrera’s high walk rate: he was constantly falling behind and not able to recover. His walk rate against righties is at 6.0% this season, a drastic improvement from his career marks.
From one of the worst figures in baseball to a well above-average mark is a drastic change. Even at the lower usage, Cabrera is throwing the changeup in the zone against righties more than ever. The batted ball quality has declined, but it’s less of a problem since he’s throwing it less often.
The sinker has also been a massive success in terms of limiting the walks. It’s overtaken the four-seam for primary fastball and for good reason. It’s a pitch he can throw in the zone and get strikes. A 23.6% called strike rate is above the league average, and the batted ball quality on it is average. It doesn’t earn many whiffs, but he can throw it in uncomfortable locations.
Increasing the sinker usage while turning to the slider and curveball more gives batters a more east-west approach to worry about, when previously it was easier to focus solely on the north-south approach with the fastball and changeup. Over 70% of Cabrera’s pitches are one of those three, but all come in at around an equal share.
It’s keeping righties off balance against the other pitches too. The slider is getting more swings against it, while also seeing more called strikes at the same time. The slider has a gaudy 40.7% CSW%, with equal parts whiffs and called strikes.
It’s not a pitch that elicits embarrassing swings and misses, but instead it overpowers hitters who aren’t sure what’s coming and fail to adjust. The curveball does get those types of whiffs, commanding a similarly elite 38.6% CSW%.
This four-pitch arsenal is working great against righties, with pitches that earn strikes more than they ever have while missing bats at the same time. The fastball also exists as the occasional two-strike offering, which Cabrera tries to simply throw past hitters.
The only struggle for Cabrera against righties is that he occasionally runs into strike-throwing issues, eventually causing him to be predictable and throw stuff in the heart of the zone that gets mashed. However, he’s striking out 25.0% of the righties he’s faced and, by all accounts, is thriving against them.
It’s a similar story against lefties for Cabrera. He has adopted a more balanced approach across all his pitches, which is helping him maintain a 25% strikeout rate. He had significant platoon issues last year, whereas he’s been a platoon-neutral pitcher this year.
Going Forward: Is This Sustainable?
Cabrera might be pitching for a new team come August, but one thing is clear: he’s a different pitcher this year than at any point in his big league career.
He’s moved away from over-reliance on the underperforming changeup, and the arsenal now has more movement to it that makes it harder for hitters to attack. A diversified arsenal and more strikes created a season for Cabrera that limited the dropoff in strikeout rate while improving his walk rate.
As long as the sinker is earning strikes, I think this is a sustainable approach for Cabrera. It may not bring the ace upside that we once thought was possible, but this is a very servicable arm. The 3.61 ERA should be about where I expect him to remain for the rest of the season, finally delivering the Edward Cabrera that everyone wanted to see.
