As Opening Day for the college baseball season kicked off alongside the highly anticipated men’s ice hockey at the Winter Olympics, I couldn’t help but see the parallels between the two sports.
Out of the 25 players on the USA Hockey roster, 20 of them played college hockey. When you expand that list to Team Canada, names like 19-year-old phenom Macklin Celebrini, and arguably the NHL’s best defenseman Cale Makar, add to the list of elite players who stepped on a college campus. That number is only expected to increase in the near future, with recent rule changes allowing prospects to play in Canada’s top junior leagues without losing their NCAA eligibility, highlighted by the highly anticipated season of current Penn State freshman and projected No. 1 overall pick Gavin McKenna.
What makes many of those college careers so fascinating is that a lot of them came after being selected in the NHL Draft, not before like we see in every other major sport. Cale Makar went straight from a National Championship game to debuting for the Colorado Avalanche in the postseason. All of that works for college hockey and the NHL, but how does it translate to college baseball Opening Day and Major League Baseball?
Whether we like it or not, the minor leagues are shrinking again. With the CBA expiring after the conclusion of the 2026 season, one of the foregone conclusions is another contraction of Minor League Baseball. That contraction could come from a further shortening of the draft and cutting of MiLB rosters, the potential elimination of high school players from the draft, or possibly both. But no matter how it happens, it feels inevitable. In response to those potential changes, Major League Baseball should take a hard look the NHL’s development model and allow organizations to shift a portion of prospect development to college baseball programs. Doing so would stabilize the professional pipeline while accelerating college baseball’s growth on a national scale.
How the NHL’s Prospect Development Model Can Fix MiLB
What is the NHL Prospect Development Structure?
Any die-hard NHL fans, feel free to correct the exact minor league details for the AHL, but I will ensure to hit on the main points that can translate to the MLB. The basics are as follows:
Core Structure
- Players are draft eligible by birth year (18-20), not by high school graduation or multiple college seasons
- College players can be drafted and remain in school
- Draft rights ≠ professional status
- Player maintains NCAA eligibility as long as they:
- Does not sign a professional contract
- Does not receive salary or pro benefits
Rights Retention Window
- NHL team holds rights to NCAA players:
- Until August 15 after their senior year
- Up to 4 years of development
- If unsigned by then → player becomes an unrestricted free agent
Entry-Level Contract (ELC) Timing
- Contract length based on age at signing:
- 18–21: 3 years
- 22–23: 2 years
- 24: 1 year
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Once signed:
- Contract becomes active immediately
- Season counts whether the player is in the NHL or AHL
Immediate Pro Assignment Flexibility
- NCAA players can:
- Go directly to the AHL
- No age or league restrictions
- Development level is based on readiness, not eligibility rules
What would this look like for the MLB?
So now that we have a full understanding of how the NHL process works, let’s put this into baseball terms.
Draft Eligibility
In this scenario, the first major change from the current MLB structure is draft eligibility beginning by birth year, rather than high school graduation. In recent years, we have seen an influx of reclassifications, 2025 number 1 overall pick Eli Willits is an example, where players were being drafted at 17 years old. This would be eliminated.
If a high school player is selected, assuming the signing team is not willing to start their “clock” and put them in the MiLB, they will be eligible to play college baseball. The drafting team will own the rights of the player throughout their college career. Once the team feels the player is ready, they can exercise their rights and move the player into MiLB, or even directly to the MLB. Immediately upon exercising the players’ rights, their free agency clock will start.
In baseball, it is much more common for “late bloomers” who burst onto the scene after enrolling in college. This is why the draft is predominantly college players. In the NHL, all players are draft-eligible at any point in their college career. I would prefer a model that had a gap between high school graduation and draft eligibility, but can see the value of allowing annual opportunities to be drafted. There is an argument to be made that most of the cases would have those players drafted at 18, no matter what, since they would still be allowed to enroll in college. Let’s follow the NHL model and allow draft eligibility to be after every season.
Once the player is selected and terms are agreed upon, the major league team will possess that player’s rights until their college eligibility is exhausted. Since college athletics allows for four seasons of eligibility in five calendar years, that could extend until players are 23 years old. If the player is not signed by the team that possesses their rights upon exhausting college eligibility, that player immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent with the ability to sign with any organization.
In this scenario, College Baseball would become the largest development apparatus for Major League Baseball. Outside of the unicorns, like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and more recently Konnor Griffin, the majority of players would not be ready to start their clock and would end up on a college campus. In this scenario, players would still be able to communicate with the MLB teams that possess their rights, and those teams can even host voluntary offseason development sessions at their Spring Training sites. The top College Baseball programs have a much better player development infrastructure than any Minor League venue, so there is an argument to be made that players would be better suited to be developed.
Service Time
I have mentioned “clock” a couple of times, and I think this should be a major part of the restructuring. Instead of MLB teams having the ability to choose when a player’s free agent clock starts, the clock will start immediately upon signing. This will allow the best players to be pushed to the MLB as soon as possible. That has been a change MLB teams have started to make, but this would force their hand and ensure the best players are always playing at the MLB level. If the minor leagues are going to shrink, there needs to be some compromise.
Why wouldn’t the MLB choose this path?
With the acknowledgement that the minor leagues will be shrinking, this proposal seems like a great option. You maintain the same number of official players under the umbrella of every organization, but without the need to host all of them at a minor league site. This gives the teams the cost-saving measures they are looking for, while also respecting the players’ rights to professional opportunity. I am by no means in favour of the impending contraction, just more providing a resolution that could work with a situation that feels inevitable. The question is, would the MLB teams do it?
If the MLB teams pushed back against this idea, it would be because of development and health risk. Arm injuries are a problem at all levels of baseball. In this scenario, MLB teams would be selecting the rights to an 18-year-old pitcher, and allowing them to go to college with little to no control over the day-to-day process, how often a pitcher throws, and most importantly, how many pitches they throw in a given outing. Teams can hire player development liaisons to consistently communicate with the program and player, but that liaison is not making personnel decisions. In my opinion, it would be smart for college programs to appease MLB teams because players are choosing to sign with the college, and players will only sign with colleges that have the MLB stamp of approval, but I could still see that being a point of contention from the MLB side.
The development concern is one that I think would actually be better for the player in college. When looking at the lifestyle of many minor league players, college baseball is a better place to develop on and off the field. Not only do many top college programs have better coaches than those at the MiLB affiliates, but they also have better access to resources. The majority of college baseball programs have fully stocked weight rooms within a stone’s throw from the field, and a full-time Strength and Conditioning Coach to oversee all physical development. Attached to that weight room, many have a full pitching lab, stocked with biomechanical technology, ground force data, and all the ball tracking tech to correct any imperfection a pitcher might have. Many now have the same on the hitting side. On top of all of that, many schools have invested a ton of money in nutrition and recovery. All the stories of minor leaguers sleeping in motels, eating gas station food, and travelling 10+ hours overnight would be nonexistent.
I envision everyone who works for an MLB team would see the benefits of this proposal, but if you asked them to send their top pitching prospect to the SEC with zero oversight, they would be appalled at the suggestion.
Conclusion
I have long looked at the NHL model and thought it could make a ton of sense for the MLB. College Baseball is growing rapidly, and a lot of that has been due to an investment in player development. I am completely biased, as my career is centered around travelling to college campuses and discussing player development with the top coaches in the country, but I think College Baseball is the best place for prospects to develop. Matt Hobbs at Arkansas is a Top 5 pitching coach in the world. Jay Johnson at LSU is one of the best hitting minds in all of baseball. The list goes on across all of College Baseball. It’s time the MLB takes College Baseball under their wing, and allows the best players to play at the top of the sport, rather than being sent to a small midwestern town in the hopes of maximizing their baseball career.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
