Here at Pitcher List, we have a suite of PLV metrics to study every event in a baseball game at the pitch level. Decision Value (DV) is our hitter swing decision metric. It takes inputs like pitch velocity, location, and movement, and tells us whether the hitter made a good decision to swing or take a particular pitch. This isn’t quite as simple as plate discipline; swinging at a Logan Webb sinker and pounding it into the ground is a bad outcome even if the pitch was a strike. Instead, Decision Value rewards hitters for swinging at pitches they should be able to hit hard and for taking pitches they’re unlikely to do much with. The flipside is that Decision Value punishes hitters if they don’t swing at pitches they should be doing damage on or do swing at pitches that are unlikely to generate quality contact. You can find a much more thorough introduction to PLV metrics and Decision Value here.
One feature of DV is that it can be split into in-zone and out-of-zone components (zDV and oDV, respectively). While some batters like Spencer Torkelson excel at both components of pitch selection, other batters exhibit huge splits in how they handle pitches in the zone vs out of the zone. The table below displays the 10 hitters with the largest absolute splits in zDV and oDV.
We can see immediately that it’s possible to be an excellent offensive player, or really struggle, independent of where your DV skill lies. Juan Soto is showing elite decision-making on what pitches to attack in the zone, but has had surprisingly bad decision-making outside the zone. A quick glance at his plate discipline metrics shows us that he’s been remarkably aggressive, for him, to start the season. Soto’s chase rate has doubled from 15.7% to 31.8%; his z-Swing rate is also up 15 percentage points, leading to an overall increase in his swing rate from roughly 35% to just over half of all pitches seen. If this continued, it would be a shocking change in approach for one of the most disciplined hitters in the league. One positive of this type of change is that Soto is swinging at a career-high 78.6% of pitches in the heart of the zone, leading to his high zDV. He’s also swinging 25 percentage points more often in the shadow zone, more than doubling his swing rate on chase pitches, and swinging at 7.1% of waste pitches (up from 1.6%). This has led to an inversion in his usual DV metrics. Soto was 3rd in MLB in oDV in 2025 but slightly below average in zDV, due to not swinging often enough at hittable pitches. It would be one of the most shocking developments of the season if Soto were to continue swinging like this. It should probably be written off as a small, 125-pitch sample, but Soto didn’t show this kind of inversion in any similarly-sized sample last year.
Kyle Schwarber and Taylor Ward give us excellence with polar opposite skills from what Soto has shown so far. Both Ward and Schwarber have been excellent at laying off pitches outside the zone. Ward’s 13.7% chase rate would be a career low by nearly 7 percentage points. Schwarber has had customarily excellent discipline, running a 19.7% chase rate in line with his career norms. Ward has been especially good on what Statcast deems “chase” pitches, swinging a mere 5% of the time. Both have shown relatively lackluster decision-making within the zone, though, with zDVs of 63 for Ward and 67 for Schwarber. Inside the zone, their skills diverge a bit. Ward has done better limiting his aggression to the middle of the zone, swinging at 62% of pitches in the heart of the zone and 35% in the shadow of the zone. Schwarber, by contrast, swings 60% of the time in the heart of the zone, but 44% of the time in the shadow of the zone. Their relative abilities have manifested in their performance so far; Schwarber is running his customarily low average with an excellent walk rate and massive power. Ward is swinging at pitches he can make more contact on, but is running near career lows in average exit velocity and hard hit rate.
Finally, we have some players who are struggling despite excellent decision-making in one of our two metrics. Ezequiel Tovar has a 78 DV, comprised of a 122 zDV and a 69 oDV. Tovar swings at 61% of all pitches he sees; 46% of balls and 80% of strikes. He makes contact on 60% of swings outside the zone and 84% in the zone. He’s particularly susceptible on balls low and out of the zone, swinging at more than half of these pitches and running an xWOBA close to .190. It’s a massive negative for his game; these are pitches that would benefit the offense if he could lay off them, while he also can’t hit them particularly well. Pitchers clearly know this, as 31% of all pitches Tovar sees are low and away out of the zone. In comparison, he’s excellent when he can restrict his attention to middle and low pitches that stay in the zone where his aggression is rewarded.
A final interesting case is Trent Grisham. Grisham has shown excellent discipline in his career and is walking as often as he strikes out this season. This is supported by his overall excellent DV and oDV, despite his poor zDV. Grisham has struggled to a .164/.324/.327 line so far, held down by a .175 BABIP. His zDV is telling us that part of his low BABIP (and generally low BABIPs over his career) are his swing decisions inside the zone. Grisham ran a 90 zDV in his breakout 2025 season after an 85 zDV in 2024 and an 82 zDV in 2023. Grisham’s big change this year is swinging much less in the heart of the zone, 56% of the time vs 64% in 2025. While Grisham’s bat speed is also down to start the season, he’s still hitting the ball at roughly the same exit velos and launch angles as he did last year. A key change to watch for will be whether he increases his aggression on obvious strikes or whether he lets pitchers continue to throw in the heart of the zone unpunished.
Designed by Aaron Asbury (@aarongifs on Instagram)
