Fantasy Baseball 1B Busts for 2025

My definition of a fantasy bust is a player who does not earn their draft value, not necessarily a player who just performs terribly. This means a bust can come at any point in the draft, not just among the early picks that do not pan out.

Below, you will find my top fantasy baseball first-base busts.

*All ADP data via NFBC.

 

Salvador Perez – 70 ADP*

 

Salvador Perez has been a solid option at catcher, and his first-base eligibility adds value to that position. If fantasy baseball managers draft him as a first baseman at pick 70, though, he may disappoint.

Perez has surpassed 27 home runs just once in his career despite seven seasons playing in at least 130 games. Take that threshold to 129 games, and he has nine of those seasons. Since 2011, Perez has surpassed 60 runs once and 80 RBI twice.

Josh Naylor (95 ADP) surpassed all of those totals last season, and Christian Walker (97 ADP) did it in 2023. As a first baseman, there are better options two rounds later that have a chance of producing much better numbers than Perez.

While age has not seemed to catch up to Perez quite yet, this could be the year, especially considering his hitter performance towards the end of last season:

Consider Christian Walker’s hitter performance from last season, which ranged from very good to elite, and was consistent throughout the year:

This may be the year fantasy managers should fade Perez, in particular as a first baseman, but even as a catcher too.

 

Cody Bellinger – 109 ADP*

 

Clearly Cody Bellinger’s 2019 season was a product of the super-happy-fun-ball. Since tallying 47 homers, 121 runs, 115 RBI, and 15 steals, to go with a .305 AVG, Bellinger simply has not come close to living up to those numbers.

In fact, despite reaching 550 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons, the closest Bellinger has come to those lofty totals came during his 2023 campaign. He hit .307 with 26 homers, 95 runs, 97 RBI, and 20 steals. Otherwise, he has been a very average player.

His totals from those seasons combined compare very similarly to Nathaniel Lowe. The following includes their HR/R/RBI/SB/AVG totals from the last three seasons:

There are other concerns for Bellinger, aside from production, that fantasy managers should factor into their decisions. Bellinger produced the second-lowest barrel and hard-hit rates of his career last season. He also chased more than in 2023, while making less contact as well. Bellinger pulled the ball less than any season since his rookie year, while also putting up the lowest line drive rate of his career. Consequently, his groundball rate increased to its highest rate since 2020.

For fantasy managers expecting an MVP year out of Bellinger again, the sad truth is that he is not that player anymore and maybe never truly was.

 

Paul Goldschmidt – 176 ADP*

 

Paul Goldschmidt has been showing some worrying trends for three years, now. Despite playing in over 150 games in each season since 2022, his home runs, runs, RBI, and AVG have all decreased from one year to the next.

On top of that, both his K% and BB% have worsened. He posted his lowest barrel rate since 2019, while also seeing a drop in his hard-hit rate from last season.

One particular concern that shows his age could be an issue is that he was more aggressive than ever, with a 47% swing rate, the highest of his career.

On top of that, his chase rate was a career-high 29% and his 79% contact rate was the lowest it’s been since 2017. Goldy also struggled against fastballs compared to his career norm against them. All of these things combined could mean that he just is not able to catch up to fastballs and is struggling to see the zone well. Our data shows this is true. Take a look at his Strikezone Judgement+ from 2022 where he was well above average:

Compare that to his Strikezone Judgement+ from 2024, where he was far below average:

This is not the type of hitter I want to have on my fantasy roster, especially if his negative trends continue. Yandy Díaz has an ADP 30 picks later, and according to the BAT X, projects to outproduce Goldschmidt in every roto category except home runs.

 

Michael Toglia – 183 ADP*

 

Michael Toglia should surpass his 116 games played and 458 PA totals from last season, which could lead to a 30-home-run season. He is an interesting option, especially playing half his games in Coors Field.

The major concern with Toglia is whether he will hit over the Mendoza Line. Across 730 PAs in the majors, he has just a .206 AVG. He is much better against lefty pitchers when he bats right-handed, posting a .236 AVG last season compared to a .210 AVG as a lefty batter versus righty pitchers.

Toglia has even better numbers when he is a RHB versus LHP at home, putting up a .259 AVG last season with those parameters. If he can figure out how to hit right-handed pitching consistently, he will be a force. But at best, right now, he is a risk to draft as a top-200 player. The only situation I would consider drafting him here would be a daily NL-Only league, where I can target home matchups against lefties.

I would rather draft Yandy Díaz 20 picks later, Michael Busch 60 picks later, or Rhys Hoskins 100 picks later.

 

Tyler Soderstrom – 311 ADP*

 

Tyler Soderstrom had a decent stint in the majors last season, tallying nine home runs, 18 runs, and 26 RBI, with a .233 AVG in 213 PAs. He made some clear improvements from his 45-game debut in 2023, walking more and striking out less, but he still has more to do to improve.

Most public projections suggest he will hit between 20-25 home runs, and project him for over 500 PAs. I worry that he will not meet those totals unless he can drive the ball better and keep it off the ground.

Soderstrom had a 49% GB rate last season, which would have ranked among the 20 worst if he qualified. His line drive rate was a crazy low 13%, and he only pulled the ball 33% of the time. Pulled line drives are most likely to turn into hits, and he struggled to do that last season. He also had a low launch angle, and ground balls are most likely to turn into outs.

Additionally, he projects for a 26-27% K rate, and an AVG in the .220s according to most projections. Those numbers may be difficult to reach for him too if he continues to struggle against right-handed pitchers. He has weird splits as a lefty batter, where he does significantly better against lefty pitchers. If he struggles against RHPs, he may end up as part of a weak side platoon which could limit his at-bats, and his production as well.

I would rather take my chances on Luke Raley or Jeimer Candelario, who have ADPs similar to Soderstrom’s.