Trading, in fantasy baseball, is often key.
Identifying players who are perhaps under performing with positive regression on the horizon and pulling off trades for said players. Identifying other players who have perhaps been fortunate with batted ball luck (amongst other factors) and are candidates to potentially see their numbers drop off.
They’re both similarly commonplace and crucial in a fantasy baseball season, particularly for those looking to solidify their place in the chase for the playoffs.
Trading for a player when their fantasy value is at its zenith, or at least when it’s perceived to be, isn’t quite as commonplace, but it can pay significant dividends, either for a team searching for a missing piece, or else a fringe playoff contender looking to boost their championship chances. Especially when said impact fantasy players might be just a bit better moving forward, or rather, even better than the elite form they’ve showed so far.
With that in mind, these three fantasy stars stand out as speculative trade candidates for fantasy managers.
It might take a lot to acquire each, but the payoff is more than worth it.
Corbin Burnes‘ first season in Baltimore has gone about as well as humanly possible.
Already one of the league’s premier fantasy starting pitchers, Burnes being dealt to one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly ballparks and pitching with the support of what has become one of the league’s best lineups has raised his fantasy ceiling from elite to whatever the next upper echelon is. Best overall fantasy starting pitcher. League winner. Top 10 overall player. That’s the ceiling we’re talking here.
So far in his first 15 starts with the American League East club, the veteran has pitched to a 2.14 ERA and a 3.13 FIP while surrendering just 0.78 home runs and 2.33 walks per nine innings. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, hard-hit rate, ground ball rate and chase rate with quality showings in terms of both walk rate (6.5%) and barrel rate (6.3%) metrics.
What you’ll notice is missing there, in that array of elite metrics, is a slightly lower strikeout rate. At least, lower in terms of what we’re used to from Burnes.
That the starter’s ground ball rate is sitting at 50.6%, something that eclipses both is 2023 metric (44.1%) as well as his career-best (50.1% in 2021) might have something to do with Burnes’ relatively decreased strikeout metrics.
And while it seems unlikely that Burnes will see a sudden uptick in strikeout as he did early in his career (unless, that is, his curveball suddenly starts missing significantly more bats), the hurler is still a candidate to potentially see a bit of positive regression in the strikeout department considering how eerily similar his underlying bat metrics are this year compared to last year.
And while adding percentage points to a strikeout rate or a strikeouts per nine innings rate seems somewhere between trivial and unlikely to move the needle much, for a top-10 fantasy pitcher (and arguably top 25 overall player) like Burnes, a few more strikeouts here and there would only raise his fantasy ceiling further.
Generally speaking, hitters who make as much contact as Kim does tend to have higher batting averages. Much higher batting averages.
The 28-year-old is sporting just a 15.5% strikeout rate on the season, good for a spot in the 85th percentile and higher than just 20 qualified batters this season.
He’s also logging a 17.3% chase rate and a 16.4% whiff rate. And oh yeah, his walk rate is 14%. All three metrics rank in the 92nd percentile or better as of the beginning of play on Wednesday.
Thanks in part to a regular role in San Diego’s lineup as well as solid power (nine home runs on a 5.8% barrel rate) and stolen bases (Kim has 14 so far) production, the 28-year-old is already turning in a strong fantasy season.
And yet, he’s still batting just .220 with a .334 on-base percentage in 297 plate appearances.
The Padres infielder’s collection of stats also includes a rather low .234 BABIP. And while lower or higher BABIPs don’t always tell the entire story in terms of being able to point to stat lines being due for regression or positive regression, Kim’s situation is a bit different considering his high contact rates.
Even seeing his BABIP rise only to around his career number (currently .278) could mean a significant boost in production for the infielder. If that’s the case, he’ll likely go from a decidedly above average, very good fantasy infield option to an elite one.
Rounding out the list of ideal fantasy trade target is Corey Seager, who like Kim, is enjoying a good, but not great season where is surface-level metrics are concerned.
The veteran entered play Wednesday batting .259 with a .348 on-base percentage in 273 plate appearances for the Texas Rangers, adding 14 home runs and a .197 ISO in the process.
Additionally, while his underlying metrics aren’t quite on par with his career year in 2023, they’re both decidedly above average and a sign that some significant positive regression is around the corner.
As of the start of Wednesday, the 30-year-old’s xwOBA, xSLG and barrel rate all ranked in the 93rd percentile or better. His walk rate (85th percentile), xBA (86th) and hard-hit rate (80th) weren’t too far off.
Crucially, Seager’s BABIP is down nearly .080 points from last year at .267 despite making all that quality contact. it’s also nearly .050 points down from his career .317 BABIP.
Elsewhere, there’s a similarly significant gap between the veteran’s wOBA (.345) and xwOBA (.382).
And while Seager is batting just .256 with a .326 on-base percentage, one home run, a .103 ISO and a 97 wRC+ in 43 plate appearances since the start of June, that recent stretch might actually be a positive for fantasy managers looking to acquire the shortstop given how the metrics somewhat resemble the shortstop’s pre-May, surface level metrics. Metrics that included a .236 average, a .319 on-base percentage, a 79 wRC+, two home runs and a .075 ISO in 119 plate appearances.
In other words, other fantasy managers might be concerned by the dips in Seager’s production this year.
Simply put, don’t share that concern.
Elite production is coming. It might not quite reach Seager’s peak 2023 levels, but it’s still should be better than all but a small portion of the league where fantasy hitters are concerned.
Photos by Icon Sports Wire and Adobe Stock | Adapted by Carlos Leano.