Clubber Langford
Wyatt Langford (TEX): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
On a chilly Cincinnati night where pitching dominated, Langford provided the only offense for either club. In the top of the first against Carson Spiers, Langford launched a ball into the left-field seats—the lone run for the entire game. He’d also get a hit in his next at-bat, poking a line drive the opposite way, though he was thrown out at second trying to turn it into a double. And while his next two appearances were outs, both were fly balls to the warning track that might have carried out in better weather.
Langford was a bit divisive this draft season—some willing to reach for the breakout potential that showed up last September, while others noted he only had five homers and eight steals in his first 300 plate appearances, with a mediocre .702 OPS.
So, which version of Langford should we expect this year? Let’s look at some metrics from his rookie season:
Langford’s Chase Rate (i.e., discipline at not swinging at bad pitches) was near-elite, incredibly impressive for a rookie. His Bat Speed was also very, very good for someone his age. And he’s exceptionally fast. All these metrics are intangibles—one mental, two physical – the tools he’s bringing to the plate in each appearance.
So how do these intangible metrics translate into results? Results can vary, of course, but there’s typically a correlation between the tools and the results—the input and the output, as it were.
But for Langford last season, they didn’t quite square up. He had an above-average Barrel Rate, Exit Velocity, and K-Rate, but not the results you might expect. If we expect these to have a closer correlation this season, that points to improvement. And we’re already seeing it in the first week of the season—the average EV is up to 91.7 mph this year, the K-Rate is just 12.5%, and you can expect the steals to come.
With his rookie season behind him, expect Langford’s results to better mirror his intangibles. He could be a a 30/30 batter at just 23 years old.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday
Francisco Lindor (NYM): 1-4, RBI, SB.
Lindor got off to a famously slow start last year, batting .098 after his first 63 plate appearances with one home run and zero steals. History was starting to repeat itself after the Mets’ first three games this year, as Lindor went hitless in twelve at-bats. He got a knock in this one at least, driving in Luisangel Acuna on a single up the middle, but struck out and grounded out in his last two at-bats. At least he chipped in a steal. Even at a .067/.118/.185 slash line, he’s ahead of last season’s pace. Don’t worry about Lindor—it might take another week or two, but his intangibles tell you he’ll be fine.
Ben Rice (NYY): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, RBI.
Down three runs in the ninth, Rice turned on an A.J. Puk fastball and mashed it into Yankee Stadium’s right field upper deck. It wasn’t enough to change the outcome of the game, but eyes were opened. Rice came up in June of last year as a Catcher, and though he only hit .171 with a .613 OPS, he had an elite 15.8% barrel rate and a good eye at the plate (his 20.6% chase rate is elite). He also batted .294 in AAA and hit 12 homers in just 30 games. Rice has a pretty long swing and pitchers might find the holes in it, but the lefty-versus-lefty result against Puk suggests that he won’t let too many fastballs get by him, no matter how good they are.
Jordan Walker (STL): 2-3, HR, R, 2 RBI, SB.
Is this the year it finally happens? Walker’s threatened to break out before, looking like the next Mike Trout in Spring Training two years ago. It’s been a trying couple of seasons since then, as he spent most of last year in AAA Memphis and batted just .201 when up with the big club. Still, there have been flashes of brilliance—Walker’s already hit a ball 116.5 MPH this season, nearly tops in all of baseball, and is showing better contact and on-base skills. At 6’6″, 250 lbs, Walker’s not historically been a steals guy (though he did net 22 in AA a few years ago), but he’s attempted three so far this year—and though he’s been caught twice, he does have nearly 80th-percentile sprint speed. Still only 22 years old, there’s superstar potential here (say it again—intangibles!). See if he’s available.
Willi Castro (MIN): 0-3, R.
Yes, it’s ridiculously early. But going into tonight’s game, the team batting average for the Twins was .143, with their top three hitters batting .083, .000, and .067 in their first four games (all losses). If Wallner, Correa, and Buxton can’t produce (or get injured), a shake-up might be in order. As the only member of the team with an OPS above .750 (it’s 600 points higher than the team average), Castro might move up the order soon. Sure, Wallner reached base four times in this one—his Schwarber-lite profile might work leading off—and Royce Lewis will be back in a few weeks. But Castro’s been the Twins’ Swiss Army Knife for years and qualifies at nearly every position on the diamond (he’s even got an RP appearance). He’s just about the most versatile player in the Majors, and deserves a spot on your team.
Brent Rooker (OAK): 1-3, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Sutter Health Park, normally home to the Sacramento River Cats, has been a hot topic as the replacement stadium for the A’s this year. Some thought it would be a hitter’s haven compared to the Oakland Coliseum, though its outfield dimensions are pretty similar (the right field wall is five feet closer and that’s the only real difference). Over two games, though, it appears the predictions of Pacific Coast League numbers might be happening, with 32 total runs scored. And just wait until summer comes around—the air’s a lot warmer in Sacramento compared to Oakland, and balls will be flying. Sometimes the intangible is in the ballpark, not the player—and Rooker’s own intangibles are darn good (other than his 31% Chase Rate, that is). Seriously, he might hit 60 home runs.
Shea Langeliers (OAK): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
And Langeliers might hit 40. With a 12.8% barrel rate and tremendous bat speed, 2019’s 9th overall draft pick is looking like the next Cal Raleigh. He hit 29 bombs last year and has two already (though he’s yet to hit a ball over 100 mph). Interestingly, there’s a pretty wide split between the Oakland backstop’s expected metrics (a .202 xBA, a .336 xSLG) and the actual results—the opposite of what happened with Langford last year. Is this a statistical anomaly, park factor, or should we expect Langeliers to regress? The Oakland backstop’s intangibles are a little mixed (good bat speed, not-so-good eye), so time will have to tell—but he’s going to give you power.
