A fore-Seiya-ble breakout
Seiya Suzuki (CHC): 3-5, 2B, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB.
Suzuki was being drafted around pick one hundred this year, in the range of Bryan Reynolds and Riley Greene. But with the Cubs lineup turning into a top-three offense, he looks like one of the year’s best bargains. Suzuki’s barrel rate is a career-best 16.0%, his Average EV has ticked up to 92.6 mph, and he’s got an xSLG of .491 after cranking his dozenth homer in the Cubs’ 14-1 rout in Miami.
Suzuki was slumping a bit in May, mainly due to a slump in his decision-making, which went from very good to below league-average in a span of two weeks. But he appears to be turning that around. And as he’s surrounded by potential league MVP Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Dansby Swanson, he’s become a monster in run production, chipping in seven combined Runs and RBIs in last night’s game. He’s now second in the National League in RBIs and his twelve home runs are already more than half his total last year (21).
His .246 Batting Average is a bit off 2024’s pace (a 28.4% K-rate will do that), but it’s a fair trade given the added run production and power. The only downer? After 16 steals last year, he’s just nabbed one bag.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday
Matt Olson (ATL): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.
Fantasy drafters were hoping to get the 2023 version of Olson as opposed to last year’s, but while the overall numbers have disappointed there are positives in his metrics. 2023’s Olson mashed 54 homers and won a lot of fantasy championships by hitting .321 with a dinger every 10.6 at-bats after the All-Star Break. And though Olson had a down year in 2024 overall, he hit .271 in the second half with 16 homers. Looking deeper into his numbers, Olson’s having a bounce-back season—it just hasn’t shown up yet (and his supporting cast isn’t quite the same either). Expect Olson—and the Braves, once they get Acuña back—to steadily get better. And don’t be surprised if he’s crushing it again in the second half.
Riley Greene (DET): 2-3, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Greene has a .990 OPS in May with five homers in just 62 at-bats, and looks locked in batting clean-up for the surprising Tigers, hitting .313. He belted an RBI single in the first inning with a 113-mph laser beam, then followed that up in his next appearance with a 108-mph home run. To top it off, Greene laced his tenth double at 109 mph in the ninth inning to plate the go-ahead run. Like Suzuki, Greene’s K-rate leaves a lot to be desired (at 29.2%, it’s in the bottom tenth percentile), but he’s compensating for it with a 16.1% Barrel Rate, elite bat speed, and a Hard-Hit Rate around 50%. If he keeps this up, he’ll reach 30/100 this year and provide a great return for his owners.
Anthony Santander (TOR): 1-2, HR, R, 2 RBI.
After hitting behind Vlad Guerrero for most of the season and not producing, Santander’s found himself hitting sixth in the lineup. The move up north has seen his OPS drop more than 200 points from last year’s .814 (which was surprisingly low given that he hit 44 homers). And it’s more than bad luck as his metrics have gone from mostly-red to mostly-blue: his K-Rate is up more than 5%, his xwOBA is down almost fifty points, and his barrel rate has nearly vanished at 4.3% (compared to 11.7% last year). Hopefully his homer tonight sparks a hot streak, but don’t expect too much of a resurgence—he’s better than what he’s been doing, but not by much.
Nolan Arenado (STL): 2-3, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Like Santander, Arenado dropped from the middle of the order to batting sixth (his decision, according to the broadcast booth). And like Santander, it caused a spark—batting against Tarik Skubal no less, Arenado’s first AB was a long flyout that went 367 feet, and his next appearance resulted in a two-run homer. He followed that up with a single in the sixth for just his fifth hit in his last 35 PA’s. Still, this might be a flicker of light in a darkening tunnel as Arenado’s profile looks rough at age 34. All his homers are severe pulls that are barely scraping over the fence, to the point he should be requesting a trade to the Astros, and he’s whiffing more than 30% of the time on offspeed pitches with a .136 average.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 1-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.
A night after hitting his 300th career homer (a 460-foot moonshot that nearly cleared the stadium), Schwarber launched a solo bomb to center field for number 301. Now in his eleventh season, Schwarber averaged 23 homers each year before coming to Philadelphia (a mark slightly deflated from a season-ending injury in his first game in 2016), but that’s jumped to 43 in his last three campaigns. He’s up to an MLB-leading 17 homers now (on pace to clear 50), and could surpass the century mark in both Runs and RBIs. He’s sporting a career-high .978 OPS and clearly enjoying the cleanup role. Surprisingly, he’s batting just .087 against sliders in 2025, time will tell if pitchers start picking up on that.
Brice Turang (MIL): 1-3, HR, R, RBI.
With three home runs in the first two weeks of the season, it looked like Turang had boosted his power and would soar past his career-high of seven round-trippers. But alas, last night’s homer was his first in 52 days. Still, Turang has shown significant improvement in many of his metrics, including a 6.2 mph upgrade to his Average EV since his rookie season. His OPS is up nearly 100 points over last year, and he’s flirting with a .300 Batting Average. We thought Turang was a light-hitting second baseman who could only help you with steals, but he’s flashing some all-around game. If he’s getting on base 37% of the time and running like he does, he could chase 100 runs and be a boon in three categories.
Max Muncy (LAD): 1-3, RBI, BB.
“He can’t see without his glasses!” Take a look at the chart below on Muncy’s swing-decision metrics and see if you can spot where he got his new frames. After a rough start where he batted .095 to start the season, Muncy has bounced back when he started wearing glasses that corrected some astigmatism in his right eye. The results speak for themselves, and he’s getting on base 36% of the time this month. He’s still struggling against lefties, but he’s lifting up all his metrics over the last few weeks, and last night’s performance (including the game-winning sac fly) continues the trend.
Ian Happ (CHC): 1-6, R, RBI.
Coming off the IL from a strained oblique, Happ reclaimed the leadoff spot for the Cubbies from the ascendant Pete Crow-Armstrong. However, Happ’s timing looked off as he K’ed three times and whiffed on three straight pitches in his first at-bat. Happ should be able to keep his leadoff role once he gets back in the groove (it was a pretty short IL stint for an oblique issue at just eleven days, so he might need time to work it out), but PCA is knocking on the door to superstardom and may take over someday. Still, Happ’s got a 38% OBP this year compared to PCA’s 31.5%, so this might all be conjecture. Consider Happ safe for now, and he should resume his 100-run pace.
Dylan Crews (WSN): 1-1, HR, R, RBI, BB.
Crews has been up and down in his first full season in the Majors, but mostly down. After starting to turn things around in late April, he dropped to a .167 Batting Average in May and has found himself rooted at the bottom of the order, even though the Nationals lineup is middling. Crews has surprisingly rallied to a .958 OPS batting ninth, however, so there might be something there. He took Spencer Strider deep in his first at-bat, launching a 404-foot shot into the fifteenth row of the stands. In his second at-bat, though, Crews tried to pull back his swing and winced noticeably, appearing to strain a core muscle. He stayed in the game to draw a walk but was pulled after, and unfortunately, is likely headed to the IL.
