Michael Tog Your Boat Ashore
Michael Toglia (COL): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Togs has been on quite a journey. The switch-hitting First Baseman started the year in a 1-for-16 slump before bouncing back for a decent April (batting .244 with a few homers), and then hit .160 in May and struck out 40 times in 81 ABs. The near-.500 K-rate soon meant a ticket to AAA Albuquerque to work things out.
Toglia has typically been a high-strikeout hitter, but he was able to balance that out last year with 25 homers and double-digit steals, and managed a decent .767 OPS. Playing in Coors will inflate your numbers a bit, but Big Mike’s metrics showed a potentially elite hitter, even with a high whiff rate.
Hopes were high this year, and Toglia appeared on a handful of sleeper lists, going around pick 175 in drafts (in the NFBC, he went as high as 84). So it was disappointing to see Togs on that bus to New Mexico on May 31.
Sometimes, a stint in the minors can help a hitter slow things down, reset their timing, and take the pressure off. And that’s exactly what seems to have happened with Toglia, who hit three home runs (including a grand slam) in eleven AAA games and had 16 RBIs, slashing .273/.568/.921. Sure, it’s barely 50 plate appearances in the PCL, and he still struck out 34% of the time, but he also walked at a 15% clip and added four doubles.
Toglia’s journey brought him back to Colorado last night, as the Rockies are looking for something (anything) to give them a spark. And he delivered with two no-doubters—the first, in the fourth inning off Michael Soroka, a 105-mph nuke to right-center field; the second, a line drive into the right field bullpen.
So, could this be the start of something new? Toglia’s profile is a little reminiscent of Spencer Torkelson, another power-hitting 1B who sometimes loses his way. A Torkelson kind of turnaround would be the absolute ceiling for Togs, but if he can keep the whiffs down (a big if, given his 38% K-rate this year), there’s enough pop to be useful.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday
Ryan McMahon (COL): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, RBI, BB.
The Rockies put up double-digit runs on the road for the second time in three games (but just the third time all season), so let’s feature a few of them. McMahon was drafted mainly in deeper leagues around pick 275, but he’s useful in spurts. Boasting a 99th-percentile Average EV of 94.7 mph, McMahon is hitting the ball more than 3 mph higher than his career mark, also with a career-high walk rate of 14%. The only problem? Like Toglia, he’s saddled with a 30%+ K-rate and can disappear for long stretches (a .126 batting average in April). But he’s got eight homers since May 1, including last night’s 396-foot blast, and should put up numbers when the Rockies start a homestand later this week, where he’s got a .970 OPS this season.
Thairo Estrada (COL): 1-2, HR, R, RBI.
Estrada was just another Colorado player to homer (they hit seven on the night), his first of the season. Since coming off the IL on May 30, Estrada’s shown some signs of bouncing back from a disastrous 2024 season in San Francisco, hitting .288 with six doubles in 66 at-bats. Given his 16.8% K-rate, he’s a good counter-balance to the rest of the whiff-happy lineup and has batted either second or fourth in most games. Estrada was a popular sleeper candidate given his home park and a historically decent hitting profile, so he’s worth keeping an eye on if your middle infield is lacking. Just note he was pulled early in this one after getting hit by a pitch on his hand, just inches away from the wrist fracture that kept him on the shelf the first two months of the season.
Vladimir Guerrero (TOR): 3-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Vladdy’s been a little underwhelming as a late-first-round pick in drafts this year, projected to be far and away the top first baseman (Freddie Freeman has reclaimed that role). Though he hits the ball incredibly hard (a 120-mph max EV this year is top 2 in the league), those hard-hit balls have not been going over the fence, and Guerrero was sitting on just eight homers and zero so far this month. That drought dramatically ended last night, as Vlad hammered a ball 448 feet at 112.1 mph into the second deck. His metrics all look on par with last season, with a nearly 1:1 K:BB ratio and a .321 xBA that’s nearly 40 points higher than his actual average. Expect a stellar second half.
Addison Barger (TOR): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Future. Star. Barger has come out of nowhere to become one of my favorite in-season adds, and continues to show us why. After a .292/.517/.887 BA/SLG/OPS in May, Barger’s already got four homers in June and is now slugging .574 on the month. He’s moved up in the batting order to hit between Bichette and Vladdy, and that paid off handsomely last night—with the Blue Jays down a run against closer Shelby Miller, Bichette tied the game with a homer. Barger followed it up with a walk-off bomb off the face of the third deck in right field. He has excellent bat speed, and 50% hard-hit rate, and should be a top-100 player next draft season. As for this season, he’s going to win a lot of people a lot of leagues.
Cam Smith (HOU): 4-5, 2B, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.
Smith was picked by some to break out as a Rookie, but hadn’t homered since April 18th (when he also had a pair). He broke the dam in a big way last night, leading off the second inning with a 415-foot solo shot, then led off the fourth inning with another one, this time at 431 feet. Smith has big power, but the two-month drought in homers is surprising given his 90th-percentile bat speed. Still, at only 22, he’s holding his own with a .336 OBP and should only get better.
Andy Pages (LAD): 4-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.
I was at a Dodgers’ Spring Training game back in March and remember a few fans lamenting that Pages was in the starting lineup. I bet they’ve changed their tune. Pages has simply been awesome this season and has cranked things up a notch in June, with a .356 batting average, five homers, and 13 RBIs. He’s also striking out less than 20% of the time and his .293 season average is backed up by a .285 xBA. If you were lucky enough to pick him up in April (and you held on during a lull in May), keep enjoying the ride.
Salvador Perez (KCR): 3-4, 2B, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
Salvy smashed a trio of extra-base hits and is heating up in June after a couple of tough months. After hitting only four homers through June 7, he has another four in the last ten days, and is batting .316 so far on the month with a .929 OPS. The Royals have been disappointing overall on the offensive front, but the addition of Jac Caglianone might have lit a spark under the rest of the team. Perez’s overall OPS is still down 90 points from last year, but he’s fifth in the American League in doubles with 18, and his 14.3% barrel rate is the second-highest of his career (he hit 48 homers the season it was higher). Salvy’s got a first-percentile Chase Rate at 44%, but he’s always been that way—so push that aside and expect a return to form in the second half.
Rafael Devers (SFG): 2-5, 2B, RBI.
In the first shock trade of the season, the Red Sox sent Devers packing to San Fran after a long falling out with their recently signed superstar. Devers played DH and batted third in his first game with the Giants. His first three at-bats were against Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi, and he struck out twice but also stroked an RBI double into the gap, a 111.4 mph liner that reached the wall in right-center field. Devers then topped one in his next appearance, which resulted in a soft ground-out to reliever Cade Smith. Down a run in the ninth and facing closer Emmanuel Clase, Devers poked a first-pitch single the opposite way to put two men on (though Clase would wriggle out of the threat later). All in all, Devers looked comfortable with his new team and explicitly stated he ‘be happy to play anywhere, ‘ so he appears to already have better relations with the Giants brass than he did in Boston.
Cal Raleigh (SEA): 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 6 RBI, SB.
It’s just getting ridiculous at this point. Raleigh powered the Mariners with a grand slam in the second inning for his MLB-leading 27th home run, and is lapping all catchers with his breakout season. He also added an RBI double and stole third base for good measure (his eighth steal, a new record for a Mariners catcher). Could a catcher go in the first round of drafts next year? If he hits 50 homers this season, this one should.
