Tyler, the Run Creator

Tyler O’Neill (BAL): 2-7, HR, R, 4 RBI, BB.

O’Neill had a choppy run with the O’s out of the gate, homering with three hits on Opening Day and not doing much else after. He batted just .118 in April before a neck issue landed him on the IL. After coming back for a week in May, he went right back to the IL with a shoulder problem. But after returning again on July 4th, it’s been roses and sunshine ever since—a .627 SLG for the month and an incredible heater this past week with four homers in a span of twelve ABs.

One of the physically strongest players in baseball, O’Neill has an impressive 17.2% Barrel Rate and eightieth-percentile bat speed, but his quality of contact has been lacking. Still, this year’s limited appearances show the plus-power that brought 31 homers last year in Boston. In many cases, his metrics are better than that 2024 season: an improved K-rate, xBA, and xSLG.

The Orioles and Blue Jays had a rare day-night doubleheader on Tuesday, and O’Neill started in both after getting Monday off (he was 2-for-17 lifetime against starter Chris Bassitt). The rest did not slow his hot bat one bit (nor that of the rest of the Orioles, who piled on 19 runs in the two contests).

Batting cleanup in the first game, O’Neill started the day with a sac fly that netted the Orioles’ first run. He’d take a walk in his next AB and knock a single to center after that. Then, in what would be a six-run sixth inning, TO cranked a homer in his fourth straight game, this one a three-run blast to the left-center field bullpen.

He wouldn’t make it five, however, as in the nightcap, the Orioles went homerless. O’Neill batted second in this one but did not get a hit, striking out once. Still, it’s been a scorching last seven games with a .391 AVG, .464 OBP, and .957 SLG (which makes for a 1.421 OPS). If he can stay on the field, he’s a solid power addition to your lineup.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday

Gunnar Henderson (BAL): 4-8, HR, 4 R, 4 RBI, BB.

O’Neill wasn’t the only Oriole to have a day. Gunnar’s struggled to live up to his first-round draft pick status after a shoulder issue delayed his debut, and it’s been pretty much downhill for Baltimore ever since, but the O’s are suddenly piling on runs. Henderson has been tough to figure out this season, while his Average Exit Velo is on par with last year’s 37-homer output (and his batting average is actually two points higher), the power just hasn’t been there. He’s got a career-low 8.6% Barrel Rate, and his Sweet-Spot % has dipped from 54th percentile to tenth. Still, he looks like he’s ready to put up monster numbers any minute now.

 

Jordan Westburg (BAL): 4-6, 2 2B, 4 R, RBI.

Since the All-Star Break, Westburg’s been crushing the ball with a .327 average and 13 runs scored, and has been maybe the biggest contributor to Baltimore’s offensive resurgence. He’s finally living up to his draft hype after an April injury cost him two months of the season. For those who were unfortunate to drop him, our condolences; for those lucky enough to pick him up, our congratulations. Westburg led off the first game and tallied four hits in six appearances (including a pair of doubles), his fifth game in July with three hits or more. He must have gotten tired running around all those bases, as Baltimore gave him a breather in the nightcap, but he should be a top-5 second baseman the rest of the way.

Brooks Lee (MIN): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI.

Here’s one of the more unlikely multi-homer performances you’ll see. Lee didn’t even start the game, only coming in after Carlos Correa left in the second with a migraine. Lee made the most of his rare appearance in the heart of the Twins’ order, smacking homers in the seventh and ninth innings. The game was well out of hand by then—and Boston wasn’t throwing their best pitchers—but they all count the same, and his two homers ended up accounting for all of Minnesota’s runs. He’s still not more than a bench bat in all but the deepest of leagues, however.

 

Kyle Manzardo (CLE): 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

Manzardo has shown he belongs in an MLB lineup in his first full season, as his two dingers last night give him five on the month and eighteen on the year. He’s quietly put together a stellar July, slashing .288/.358/.576, and has taken significant strides since his abbreviated rookie campaign: his K-minus-BB rate in 2024 was 20.5% (now it’s 15.8%), and he’s barreling at a 12.5% rate versus 9.5%. That makes for an 80-point jump in his OPS. He’ll probably never hit for average consistently and is hardly a steals threat, but Cleveland’s first baseman could reach 25 homers.

 

Riley Greene (DET): 3-5, 2 2B, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.

Greene had been struggling all month as the strikeouts have gotten the best of him (he’s got 40 in July), but he showed out last night with three extra-base hits. He’s lapping the league in K’s with 144 (which will smash his career high last year of 156), but the selling out for power hasn’t hurt his overall game—in fact, it’s done the opposite. Greene’s batting an unlikely .275 (which, with a 32.6% K-rate, is insane) and has the highest OPS of his career. While he might be on a downward trajectory of late, the data shows he usually rebounds quickly from a slump.

 

Jarren Duran (BOS): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, RBI, BB.

Duran has a .988 OPS since the All-Star Break, but he’s also struck out 14 times in 30 at-bats. Even going back to June 1st, he’s struck out more than a third of the time. This and his .204 AVG against lefties is why he’s finding himself moving around the lineup—he batted third in this one for just the second time all year. He seems to like the role, though, hitting ahead of Trevor Story and behind Alex Bregman. For someone who doesn’t hit many homers, Duran has big power, launching a 446-foot bomb that almost reached St. Paul. Duran also owns a 117.7 mph Max EV, which is in the top 1% of the league. Maybe he starts tapping into that power as a non-leadoff bat and finishes with 20 homers.

 

Nico Hoerner (CHC): 3-3, HR, R, RBI.

Perhaps it’s fitting that the day after the Cubs lose legend Ryne Sandberg, their current second baseman homers. For Hoerner, the long ball was a rarity—just his fourth all season. At 374 feet down the line, it would’ve gone out in all thirty parks. Hoerner peppered in a couple of singles as well and is now within spitting distance of a .300 season to go with what should amount to 30-ish steals. He’s got a dismal 2.2% Barrel Rate, but he’s always good for 80-90 runs. He’s a sneaky 3-category contributor and will always be a points league stud given his contact skills. And hats off to Ryno, one of the best there ever was.

 

Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR): 3-4, 2B, HR, R, 2 RBI.

Pasquantino’s shown some amazing consistency the last three seasons, with nearly-identical marks in on-base percentage and slugging. The counting stats have taken a step forward, though, as he’s barreling more balls and staying healthy. He’s now 6th in the American League in RBIs and in the top-20 in AB’s and Hits. He should be a top-75 player next year, and his excellent 8.9% K-minus-BB rate make him a points league star.

 

Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-5.

Hey, it happens to the best of them. Ohtani K’ed four times in his first four at-bats, whiffing badly on the sliders offered by Reds lefty Nick Lodolo. Ohtani’s befuddlement after one whiff was meme-worthy, but tomorrow’s a new day.