Brett the Hitman
Brett Baty (NYM): 4-6, 2B, 3 R.
When you’re a Mets fan, you don’t get many opportunities to be excited during the baseball season. Even in a year where the team locked up Juan Soto for more money than the entire GDP of Micronesia (it’s a beautiful island nation, look it up), things have not quite gone to plan. Mark Vientos took a major step back, their pitching staff became allergic to the 6th inning, and Grimace died.
(I know there are some doubts as to the veracity of that last point, but I mean, if he’s not dead, then where in the world is he?)
Anyway, all this to say that, when the tiniest little things go right, it becomes cause for celebration. And though Bretty Baty has flashed some promise in the past, his 4-6, 2B, 3 R performance last night might be the mark of a larger breakout that’s been bubbling beneath the surface for a while now.
Baty has quietly been posting some very promising quality-of-contact numbers for most of the season—without much to show for it. In addition to an impressive 13.1% barrel rate, he’s also been rocking a very solid .340 xwOBA courtesy of a better approach at the plate that’s seen him spray the ball to all fields more this season while also elevating his batted balls slightly more to take advantage of his latent power.
Though the surface numbers don’t quite reflect these improvements, over his last 30 games Baty is slashing .293/.359/.511 with six homers—including a 455-foot blast against the Nationals earlier this week. And while the bar for the Mets is low enough that even a $5 hot dog promotion at Citi Field is enough to get fans excited, there seems to be some smoke here, making Baty at the very least an intriguing add for fantasy teams looking to add a hot bat for the playoffs.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:
Royce Lewis (MIN): 3-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, SB.
Speaking of hitters who haven’t quite lived up to their peripheral stats: There’s currently a 40-point gap between Lewis’s wOBA (.285) and xwOBA (.325). And while the overall profile falls quite short of the version of Lewis we saw in 2023, he has made huge strides in the strikeout department (15.7% K-rate) at least. It’s easy to forget that Lewis is still only 26 years old—and plenty capable of going on a superstar-like run when he’s hot. He’s worth keeping tabs on in case this is the beginning of a real heater.
Willy Adames (SFG): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Adames leaving the cavernous confines of Oracle Park and immediately rediscovering his power stroke while back in Milwaukee would be a great narrative. The problem is, even before this game, Adames had been on a torrid home-run-hitting streak for a while, swatting 10 (!) homers over his last 30 games. That said, his home park does seem to be curtailing his power a bit, as he’s hit only 7 of his 22 home runs at home this season. Hard to complain when you’re getting exactly what you signed up for with Adames—good pop and counting stats at the expense of your batting average.
Tommy Pham (PIT): 2-3, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Pham has really been slapping the ball lately. Not to give a backhanded compliment, but I don’t think anyone saw this coming. It’s got all of his haters punching air. Jokes aside, Pham has been slashing .301/.378/.495 over his last 30 games, and while the spike in groundball rate (51.5%) has resulted in only 7 home runs across 345 PAs, nobody will fight you if you try and claim that Pham’s been a steady contributor at the plate all season.
Yoán Moncada (LAA): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
What if Chipotle made loaded nachos an official menu item? What if I had focused on getting an engineering degree instead of frittering my life away looking at Baseball Savant pages? What if Yoán Moncada wasn’t born with muscles that tear whenever there’s a slight southeasterly breeze? These are the questions that haunt my troubled mind day and night. Anyway, there’s some slightly fun stuff happening with Moncada now that he’s healthy and playing again. He has one of the highest Hard Hit rates of his career (46%)! And his highest pulled-flyball percentage ever! That’s a nice combo! Can he string together another month of games so we can see how it all plays out? Only time will tell!
Luis Matos (SFG): 2-3, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB.
A combo meal from Matos is nice for the approximately 1% of fantasy managers who had him rostered and starting. Sometimes the 1% actually does deserve nice things at everyone else’s expense. And this is that sometimes. This and in no other instance. Viva la revolución.
Colson Montgomery (CHW): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Colson Montgomery has 24 hits to his name over the past month—and nearly half of them (11) have been home runs. I’m not sure anyone really saw this coming from Montgomery, considering his mediocre power output in the minors. The peripherals do back it up, though, with him rocking one of the fastest bat speeds in the majors and posting an excellent 13% barrel rate. Unfortunately, he’s also whiffing (33%) and chasing (33%) at prodigious rates—meaning that .221 average likely isn’t going anywhere but down.
Carson Williams (TBR): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
It was quite the debut for the Rays’ No. 1 prospect, who has received little fanfare in fantasy circles despite posting three consecutive 20/20 seasons in the minors. Of course, striking out 34% of the time in AAA will dim the hype around any prospect. Williams will get some run here thanks to his stellar defense and the current lack of competition now that Ha-Seong Kim is injured. The swing-and-miss is a concern—but he has the tools to put together a magical final month if things break right.
Francisco Lindor (NYM): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, BB, 2 SB.
After coming just one stolen base shy of 30/30 last year, Lindor appears to be pushing to make it happen this season, swiping 3 bases in the past week alone, and 7 in the past month. Between his run game picking up and the fact that he’s finally showing signs of life at the plate after being mired in a deep slump, Lindor appears to have overcome the broken toe he’s been playing through for the past few months. He should be primed to help fantasy teams make a deep playoff run if he can keep the .291/.353/.504 line he’s put up these last 30 games going.
Lenyn Sosa (CHW): 2-5, 2 RBI.
Sosa is a free-swinger, as evidenced by the absurd 40% chase rate and minuscule 3% walk rate he’s posted this year. He makes the profile work, though, as he doesn’t strike out a ton, and is putting together his best season in the power department—backed by an impressive 10% barrel rate. With 8 home runs and a .284 average over his last 30 games, there’s no harm in letting it ride until the wheels fall off.
Juan Soto (NYM): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 BB.
For one day, “Juan Solo” became “Juan So-Two,” as the superstar slugger finally hit a home run with a runner on base. (Stop booing me. It’s clever.) Anyway, the numbers will likely be there at season’s end, even if the batting average has been somewhat disappointing so far. Ho-hum.
