Aranda Horn

Jonathan Aranda (TBR): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, RBI, BB.

Aranda was a popular sleeper pick for the Rays before breaking a finger at the end of camp, which basically derailed his season. He came back in May and played about 20 games with the big club but something was off as he hit just .213 with a .607 OPS and was optioned to Triple-A in early June. Then, he faced another injury and spent two full months on the IL before coming back on August 21st. But he was on fire from there, going 10-for-23 with four homers, and was called up a week later as the rosters expanded in September.

Aranda’s surface stats in the majors have yet to impress–in 28 games this year he has just a pair home runs, a 22:8 K:BB, and a .224/.306/.382 slash. He had difficulty playing daily in his first stint earlier in the year and bounced up and down the lineup. But he’s appeared in the last five of the Rays’ last six games and hit second in the lineup in four. So far the results are encouraging, and he hit a game-tying solo shot that nearly made the second deck and added a 102.7 mph double (both coming off Zack Wheeler).

Profiling as a high-average hitter with decent power in the minors, Aranda batted .339 and .318 in his last two seasons with the Triple-A Durham Bulls and hit a combined 43 home runs. He also tallied 166 RBI in just 199 games and added 49 doubles. Aranda’s advanced metrics also jump off the page–it’s a limited sample size, sure, but he’s got a 51% hard-hit rate, a 93.5 mph average exit velocity, and a .501 xSLG. These are all in the 90th percentile or better.

The Rays are a platoon-happy bunch so there’s a good chance Aranda sits against most lefties, but his career splits are pretty even. And though Brandon Lowe returned from injury today, Aranda stayed in the lineup. The Rays know a hot bat when they see one. We’re not saying Aranda needs to be on your team, but keep an eye out these last few weeks and he could be a massive sleeper next year.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

Eugenio Suárez (ARI): 4-4, 2B, 2 HR, 4 R, 2 RBI.

In 207 plate appearances since the All-Star break, Suárez has batted .324 with 18 home runs and a 1.048 OPS.  He’s also scored 45 runs and driven in 44. Suárez is notoriously slow to get going, but he crushes the ball once he finds his timing. He’s also hitting .500 in September and already has seven homers in the month (that’s through just 10 games). This is a top-20 bat down the stretch and a potential league winner.

Adrian Del Castillo (ARI): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

ADC got his chance when Gabriel Moreno went to the IL last month and has made the most of it. In just 75 at-bats, Del Castillo has either extra-base hits, 17 RBI, and an .861 OPS. He’s slowed down of late but Moreno’s still probably a couple of weeks away (he just started running at 80 percent), so Del Castillo has some leash. He’s on the hottest-hitting team in baseball right now, so could be worth a flier if you’re desperate for short-term catcher help.

 

Kerry Carpenter (DET): 4-4, 2B, 3B, R, RBI.

Carpenter was a homer away from the cycle in Detroit’s win over the Rockies, starting things off with a triple and rocketing a 101.4 mph single his next at-bat. After a sac-fly his next plate appearance, KC ripped a 104.6 mph double to right and then added another single in his final at-bat. Carpenter is always tremendously underrated as a hitter, batting fourth in a surging Tigers lineup, and has a monster 18.6% barrel rate in 225 ABs this year. He’ll hit 30 homers next year and could drive in 100 if he stays healthy, and if he goes around pick 200 (or later) that’s tremendous value.

 

Nick Castellanos (PHI): 1-2, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.

And there’s a drive…Castellanos is always good for a timely homer and his 20th on the year scraped over the wall against Rays starter Shane Baz. With a .792 OPS since the All-Star break, Nick’s having a solid second half. He’s also striking out just 19.1% of the time now, where it was 24.8% in the first half and 27.1% last season.  Something’s clicking.

 

CJ Abrams (WSN): 2-4, HR, 2 R, RBI.

Abrams has been down the last few months, batting under .200 in both July and August (and only .161 for September so far). But he’s now a 20/20 player and hopefully finds it again. Before the All-Star break, he had an .832 OPS–since then it’s just .522. There should be positive regression coming here unless he’s hurt, but given he blasted a 420-foot bomb to straightaway center off Max Fried an injury seems unlikely. It’s also his second homer in the last three games.

 

Francisco Alvarez (NYM): 1-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.

A player having a season he’d probably rather forget, the former top prospect struggled mightily in August with a .171 BA and .450 OPS. He’s picked it up in September, though, batting .238 with a .385 on-base percentage, and absolutely nuked a 109-mph, 439-foot home run to seal the game for the Mets. He might not be the next Piazza but Alvarez is still just 22 years old and will grow into his potential eventually.

 

Lane Thomas (CLE): 3-4, R, 4 RBI.

Thomas netted four RBI despite not hitting the ball out of the infield and is finding himself in Cleveland. After an abysmal August where he hit just .143, Thomas is having a tremendous September with a .405/.421/.757 slash, knocking seven XBHs on the month (these did leave the infield). He’s not running much, though, going just 1-for-3 in stolen base attempts.

 

Tyler O’Neill (BOS): 1-4, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB.

O’Neill only had one hit on the night, but it was a big one. Down a run in the bottom of the 10th, O’Neill turned on a down-and-in slider from Keegan Akin and put it over the Green Monster for a three-run, walk-off homer. That’s now 30 on the season for TO, who’s in the 90th percentile in bat speed and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His strikeout rate is way up (33.3%) but he’s hitting the ball so hard he’s able to maintain a batting average above .250. Think he’s happy to be out of St. Louis?