The Story of My Life

Trevor Story (BOS): 2-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, 2 SB.

It was eight games into the season when Trevor Story dove to his left to snag a hard ground ball playing shortstop. He landed awkwardly and dislocated his shoulder, and the basic consensus was that his season was finished. It was a huge blow, especially after Story had such a long injury history and finally looked healthy and primed for a resurgence.

Undeterred, Story underwent a grueling rehab and worked his way back into the majors on September 7th. He’s since played in 10 games, getting a hit in each of his first three, batting seventh or eighth in the order.  He also struck out in six of his first 18 at-bats with only one walk, so the timing looked understandably off.

After a few more games, Story had accumulated just a .167 batting average.  But then things started to click. He’d have five hits in his next two games, including his first round-tripper, though it was a bit of a fence-scraper that only would’ve gone out in three major league ballparks.

Tonight it looked like he’d turned the page, though, with a 105.1 mph blast off Ryan Pepiot (who otherwise kept the Red Sox befuddled all night) that would have gone out of every park but Camden Yards. He also dinked an infield single but the most interesting accomplishment was his pair of steals, both off Drew Rasmussen, including a swipe of third base.

Story’s always had decent speed and could’ve nabbed 30 bags last year if he’d played a full season (he had 10 in 2023 with only 168 PA’s), so there might be a chapter or two left to write here. He’s not the same player as he was in Colorado (where he’d hit 35 homers and steal 25 on top of it), but if he can chip in a few more socks and shoes he’ll help you.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

Corbin Carroll (ARI): 2-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, BB.

Speaking of players recovering from lengthy shoulder injuries, Carroll is looking like a first-round pick again. He belted a pair of home runs in Coors, both no-doubters that would’ve cleared the fence in all 30 parks. Carroll’s ability to drive the ball has completely turned around since the All-Star break, where he had a .334 SLG in the first half and a .617 mark in the second, which includes eight triples and 16 home runs. If he drops to the second or third round next year he could be a steal.

 

Josh Naylor (CLE): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Naylor’s been a steal in his own right this year–after going around 100-120 ADP he’s cranked 31 homers and driven in 105 RBI. He’ll surpass 150 games played for the first time in his career and continues to mash.  He had a slight blip in July and August but still hit eight homers across that span with eight doubles. He’s picking things up even more September with a .279/.323/.492 slash rate. His batting average has taken a significant hit since last year–in 2023 he batted over .300 both before and after the All-Star break and this year is batting .245–but he’s also got 14 more homers and strikes out just 16.4% of the time. A .270 average looks more likely going forward given the profile.

 

Manny Machado (SDP): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Machado has found another gear since the All-Star break, batting .299 with a .932 OPS and 16 home runs.  He’s also got as many RBI (52) in the second half as the first, but he’s done it in 134 fewer at-bats. The Padres’ offense is in the conversation for the best in baseball and his bounce-back is a huge reason why. Manny’s been even better in September, slashing .323/.348/.661 with 21 RBI in 15 games. He took Framber Valdez deep with a 109.5 mph line drive (only a 19-degree launch angle!) and followed it up in the eighth inning with another homer off Kaleb Ort. Any conversations of him being past his prime can be put to bed.

 

Will Smith (LAD): 2-4, HR, 3 R, RBI.

The Fresh Prince of Dodger Stadium had been slumping most of the summer with a batting average around the Mendoza Line from May through August. He seems to be pulling out of it, though, hitting .273 in September despite an 11:1 K-to-BB ratio. Still, Smith’s ranking sixth among qualifying catchers in points leagues which is probably not what you had in mind when drafting him, with an OBP 34 points below last year’s.

 

Rhys Hoskins (MIL): 2-3, 2B, HR, R, RBI.

After an injury sidelined Hoskins last year and Milwaukee signed him, Hoskins was a popular sleeper pick that many thought could go 30/100. He won’t quite get to that but he did slug his 25th homer and had a multi-hit game. Unfortunately, that brings his average up to just .212 but Hoskins has hit in the .240’s most of his career. He’s batting under .200 in each of the last three months, though, so one wonders if he can turn the corner and level-up next year.

 

Freddie Freeman (LAD): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, SB.

It’s nice to see this kind of stat line from Freeman, who’s had a relatively down year overall. His batting average is down nearly 50 points from last year and his OPS more than a hundred, but he could still top 100 RBI and score 90 runs.  90 runs is a far cry from the 131 he scored last year, but part of that is on the Dodgers’ lineup which hasn’t been cranking in runs in large bunches. They’d score plenty in this game, however, netting eight runs on 11 hits. Freeman’s Statcast metrics still look elite but his gap-heavy power hasn’t been there like in years past. You can probably chalk it up to a bit of regression after a career season.

 

Starling Marte (NYM): 1-3, R, 2 RBI, BB, SB.

A walk-off hero the other night, Marte’s been moved back up the lineup the last couple of games, batting second, and has reached base in six of his last 11 plate appearances. Seeing him run again is a bonus–at 35 he now has below-average sprint speed and relies on timing and savvy to get steals. But though his speed has dwindled, Marte’s xBA is in the 96th percentile and his average exit velocity is a career-high 90.1 mph.  His hard-hit percentage is also at a best-ever 43.8%, way up over his previous best (39.6%). Marte’s worth a flier the last couple of weeks if you’re looking for batting average and runs.

 

Luisangel Acuña (NYM): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Ronald’s baby brother has arrived with a bang, smashing home runs in back-to-back games and looking like he could be a future superstar in his own right.  Just 5’8″ and 180 lbs, Acuña generates a surprising amount of power, with a 109.5 mph max-EV already and his home run last night would’ve gone out in 29 of 30 ballparks (shockingly, Coors Field was the exception). If you’re in a keeper league, run don’t walk as the upside is legit. Just note that he’s probably more of a speed than power guy, with 40 steals in Triple-A this season compared to seven home runs.