Home Free Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts (SDP): 4-4, 2 R, BB.
Xander Bogaerts was in bust territory over his first couple months of the season, slashing just .219/.265/.316–and that was before a shoulder fracture sidelined him for eight weeks. His bat’s been scorching hot since he’s come back, though, going 14-for-29 in a seven-game stretch, capped by a Wendy’s 4-for-4 Wednesday (he also walked and scored two runs).
‘Wow! 14 hits in his last 29? He must be crushing the ball,’ you might say, and…well, no. All of those 14 hits have been singles. Apparently, he and Luis Arraez have been hanging out a lot. Bogaerts also has just one RBI in that stretch, as Jurickson Profar’s been just as hot of late, knocking in all the runs ahead of him (more on Profar below).
Still, he is hitting the ball hard–his first single of the game was 106.4 mph and his second also topped 100–so extra bases should come soon.
Bogaerts started the season as San Diego’s leadoff hitter, and while that likely won’t happen again while Arraez is still on the team, he could slot into the 2-hole and hit between Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. (once Tatis returns in a couple of weeks). That would be a prime slot that could rack up counting stats galore for someone who could hit .300 the rest of the way.
The Padres love Bogaerts, signing him to an 11-year, $280-million contract last season (though at age 30 at the time, maybe not the wisest move by San Diego). Bogaerts has a ton of talent, sees the ball well, and can be a four-category fantasy contributor down the stretch.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday.
Jacob Stallings (COL): 3-4, 2 2B, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI.
The Rockies put up two touchdowns and a pair of field goals during a day game at Coors Field, beating the Red Sox 20-7. They say a rising tide lifts all boats, and that’s also true for rising altitudes and the Colorado lineup.
Stallings has been hot coming out of the break with seven hits in four games. He has eight K’s to go with that, so he’s maybe not the best points league play, but there’s a .919 OPS in July and 1.014 his last seven. Stallings isn’t winning you a championship, but if you’re desperate for a catcher he will be a plus in batting average and is even better at taking a walk (10.6% BB rate). Run him when he’s hot during the homestands.
Brenton Doyle (COL): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 5 RBI, BB.
So Stallings has had a good week for Colorado–Brenton Doyle has been doing it all season. He’s now up to 17 and 20 for homers and steals and might be the world’s unlikeliest 30/30 candidate. As the summer air thins out further in Denver, it could happen. Last year, Doyle slashed a miserable .203/.250/.343–which in Colorado might get you sent back to Single-A–but he did manage 10 homers and 22 steals in just under 400 ABs. He’s got 94% sprint speed so the steals are legitimate, but the power has been a late surprise. He hit two homers each in April, May, and June but has ten ALREADY in July. It’s a shame the Rockies will be on the road (in San Fran and Anaheim) for the next two series.
Jarren Duran (BOS): 3-5, 3B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Already a candidate for MVFP (Most Valuable Fantasy Player), any investment in Duran at the beginning of the season just keeps paying off. Duran now leads the Majors in plate appearances with 464 and is raking in the counting stats as a result. Since June 1, he’s scored 41 Runs and driven in 28, with 10 homers and 11 steals. He also leads the Majors in triples with twelve. He could steal more except Alex Cora likes to keep him from running too much since he’s an everyday player, but there’s still an outside chance he finishes the season with 20/35 and tops 120 runs. If Duran keeps up this scorching summer he will be drafted in the Marcus Semien range next season.
Spencer Steer (CIN): 3-5, 2 2B, 3B, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Steer’s season went from Hero to Zero–after looking like one of your fantasy draft’s best bargains the first three weeks of the season he took a nosedive, batting just .176 in May. But he’s been coming around again with five homers this month and an .878 OPS, his best monthly split all year. He’s also up to 53 runs and 64 RBIs, which is outpacing last year’s totals of 74 and 86, and though he’s still just hitting .241 that’s about league average these days. Steer plays everywhere and will be a versatile top-100 option the rest of the way, but he’s streaky and there will be valleys with the peaks.
Jackson Merrill (SDP): 4-5, 2B, 3B, 3 R, RBI.
At just 21 years of age, Merrill the Barrel is quietly putting himself into the Rookie of the Year conversation, at least on the hitting side (Imanaga and Skenes would like a word on the pitching end). Like Duran, he was getting better every month, but stumbled in July to just a .190 BA so far in the month (his 4-f0r-5 line today should bump that up a bit). All he needs now is to learn how to take a walk, as his 4.4% BB rate is in the tenth percentile (though it was closer to 8% in his brief time in the Minors).
Perhaps the most surprising thing about his profile is his chase rate, which is not great, Bob–he’s also in the lowest tenth percentile here. But it’s improving after bottoming out in early June. This is the mental part of the game and should improve with experience–as he continues to get comfortable in the Majors he could challenge a .300 batting average.
Jurickson Profar (SDP): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
How many top prospects don’t break out until their ninth Major League season? Profar has bounced around the league until the Padres signed him for $1 million this season, and he’s looking like a bargain. His batting average is way above his career mark (.302 vs .245), he’s already got 16 home runs where his previous high is 20 (which came in both 2018 and 2019), and he should easily surpass his best RBI total (77 in 2018; he’s at 62 already).
So where has all this come from? Well, Profar has notoriously been banged up over the years, the promise of a monster season always dissipating with one injury or another. He’s topped 140 games only twice in his career. But it goes beyond health–his strikeout rate is a career-low 14.6%, 90th percentile in the majors. He’s also hitting the ball harder, with a 90.6 mph average exit velocity, 4.4 mph higher than last year. And he’s already at 23 barrels where his career best was 25. Profar has finally reached his potential, don’t expect him to go back.
Trea Turner (PHI): 2-5, HR, R, RBI, SB.
Did Turner get a standing ovation recently that we don’t know about? After scuffling much of last year, the Phillie faithful famously gave their new star a rousing o and lifted him to a tremendous second half. Since coming back from injury Trea is playing like that again, with 10 of his 13 homers in July and a 1.164 OPS. He added a combo meal in this one, and even though he’s only sitting at 13/13 for homers and steals he could easily hit 25/25 if healthy the rest of the way.
Francisco Lindor (NYM): 3-6, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI.
Remember those first few weeks of the season, when Lindor looked like the worst player in baseball? Well, he sure doesn’t. Lindor’s got a 1.086 OPS in July and 12 of his 21 homers have come since June 5. He was batting .198 as late as May 21 but has lifted his average by more than 60 points since then. After all that hand-wringing in April, he’s got a great chance to surpass his 31-steal, 31-homer season last year. It’s good to have you back, Francisco–keep smiling.
Alex Bregman (HOU): 2-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI, BB.
Another slow starter who’s since found his stride, Bregman was batting .206 as of May 27. He’s been a .300 hitter since then and is now up to .257 on the year. His counting stats won’t be anywhere near Lindor’s in the best of times, but Bregman’s at least been solid at making contact. Still, Bregman’s overall Statcast metrics are putrid (4.2% barrel rate, a career-low .308 XWOBACON), so don’t buy into the turnaround just yet.
William Contreras (MIL): 1-3, 2B, RBI, 2 BB.
Contreras was batting over .300 in each of the first three months of the season and looking like the best catcher in the league, but he’s cooled off since then. In April and May, he combined for 44 runs and 42 RBIs, but in the almost two months since then, he’s only managed 19 and 13. He might be perking back up after this game, though. After walking twice earlier in the game, Contreras came up with a tie score in the top of the ninth and mashed a low splitter to center for a double, plating the go-ahead run. After his hot start, it’s surprising to see the Brewers’ backstop has a lower OPS this year versus his last two, so there may be some positive regression in the power department the rest of the way.
Lawrence Butler (OAK): 1-3, 2B, R, BB.
Hunter Brown kept the hot-hitting A’s lineup at bay, but Lawrence Butler stayed hot at least, getting on base twice including a double. He looks worlds away from the .211 hitter he was last year, and overperforming any of his stints in the Minors.
Butler doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for all the Statcast rankings yet, but he’s got an average exit velocity of 92.4 mph which would be top 10%, and a barrel rate of 12.5% which is even better. Since the All-Star Break, he’s been the hottest hitter in baseball, batting .591 with a 1.758 OPS. He seems like leading off, going .378 with a 1.273 OPS since the A’s moved him there. He’s also getting more aggressive at the plate, which can’t hurt.
Rece Hinds (CIN): 0-4.
Sadly, the bloom might be off the rose for this one, as Hinds’ record-breaking first week looks like a mirage. When you’re a new rookie and as locked in at the plate as you’ll ever be, taking five days off dues to the All-Star Break is never good. Hinds has just one hit in his last sixteen plate appearances, and the Reds seem to favor Will Benson as a regular. Hinds will likely just get a couple of starts a week barring injuries moving forward, so it’s time to say thanks for the memories and bid him adieu.