This will be our last Out% update for the season, as fantasy baseball playoffs and the MLB regular season are wrapping up.
Stay tuned this offseason, though, as we continue to develop Out%. Our goal is to be able to turn it into an evaluation tool into a more predictive tool that connects even more to pitch quality and a pitcher’s statistical output.
Check out our app to help track Out%: https://pl-out-percentage.streamlit.app/ – here you can search by pitcher and see leaderboards by pitch type.
This week’s article will focus on three players who turned in exceptional seasons in terms of Out%.
Here is where the league-average Out% stands on each type of pitch as of writing on Saturday, September 19:
- Fastball – 16.5%
- Cutter – 16.3%
- Sinker – 17.8%
- Splitter – 20.8%
- Slider – 18.4%
- Sweeper – 18%
- Curveball – 17.2%
- Changeup – 19.9%
A few notable pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch, including:
- Max Fried – Fastball 20.8%
- Max Fried – Cutter 19.4%
- Michael McGreevy – Sinker 25.1%
- Logan Gilbert – Splitter 28.9%
- David Peterson – Slider 24.2%
- Slade Cecconi – Curveball 24.4%
- Sonny Gray – Sweeper 33.3%
- Michael Wacha – Changeup 24.8%
For the sake of this article, my analysis will primarily focus on starting pitchers. Currently, the leaderboards (especially fastball and fastball adjacent pitches like cutters) are dominated by relievers because of their small sample size.
Final Out% Highlights
Sonny Gray – SP STL
Sonny Gray has not only the best sweeper by Out%, but also the best out pitch in baseball. This is the second year running that Gray has led the league in Out% with his sweeper. It has a 33% Out Rate, which means a third of the time he throws it, it results in an out. Gray also tosses an above average sinker and a league average slider, in terms of Out%.
Digging deeper into his pitch level data, it is clear how his sweeper can induce such a ridiculous Out Rate.
Gray tosses this slider with above average velocity, which makes up for the lack of extension. He also locates the ball well, with an excellent 105 plvLoc+. Gray gets some elite movement on this pitch as well, which makes it extra hard to hit considering the velocity. It gets 4.7 more inches of vertical movement than comparable pitches, which is seventh most in baseball. Take a look:
Sonny Gray, Wicked 86mph Back Foot Sweeper. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/3q2mAURKkO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 11, 2025
Gray’s sweeper owns a .150 BAA, a 42% whiff rate, a 51% strikeout rate, and a 27% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 388 sweepers in at least 71 PAs, he ranks top-5 in all four categories. Garrett Crochet is the only other pitcher that can claim the same.
As far as his sinker, it does not grade well according to PLV, but it has an above average Out% thanks to some great situational pitching. Gray is smart about when he tosses it and how he uses it. It does not earn him many whiffs, but it has a 42% GB rate, a nine degree launch angle, and a 30% putaway rate. And it has become his second best out pitch thanks to using it at the right time.
Gray’s sweeper and sinker will make him a great target again next season in fantasy leagues, especially if he can turn one more pitch into another above average out pitch.
Logan Gilbert – SP SEA
Logan Gilbert’s only above average out pitch this season is his splitter, which is also the fourth best pitch in baseball according to Out%. All five of Gilbert’s offerings were above average in Out% last season, but he has clearly been affected by the flexor strain injury he dealt with in April.
One thing that has not been affected by the injury is Gilbert’s splitter.
Gilbert’s elite extension makes up for the below average velocity, but his movement is what makes this pitch truly elite. Gilbert gets 41 inches of vertical drop, which is third-most among pitchers who have thrown at least 46 splitters. Opposing batters look silly trying to hit this pitch:
Logan Gilbert's splitter was bonkers tonight 🔥 pic.twitter.com/wRJ9rPelLI
— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2025
The movement and extension on his splitter has resulted in a .119 BAA, a 50% whiff rate, a 65% K rate, and a 28% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 300 splitters, Gilbert ranks first, second, first, and second respectively in those categories.
Gilbert features three other pitches all within about a percent of being league average in out rate. His PLA grades support the idea that at least his slider and fastball could be better out pitches. Perhaps if Gilbert had not dealt with an elbow injury, those pitches would be above average.
According to PLA, Gilbert’s fastball is a league average pitch, and his slider grades nearly as a Quality Pitch. His fastball has a .228 BAA and a 21% whiff rate, while his slider has a 34% whiff rate and a 20% putaway rate. These pitches have the quality to result in better Out Rates, and barring any other injuries, should see some positive regression in the 2026 season.
Max Fried – SP NYY
Max Fried owns the league’s best fastball Out% when factoring in players who have thrown at least the league average amount of fastballs. He also has the league’s best cutter Out%.
Fried tosses four pitches with above average Out Rates. Aside from his fastball and cutter, Fried also features an above average sinker and curveball. Altogether, those pitches make up about three-quarters of his pitch usage. That is noteworthy, as he has a number of ways to get batters out.
His best out pitch is his fastball, boasting a 20% Out Rate. It has a .214 BAA, a 26% whiff rate, a 35% K rate, and a 19% putaway rate. Owning a fastball that can get batters out regularly is a major advantage as a pitcher. Many pitchers feature fastballs as a set-up pitch or a waste pitch. But Fried throws his fastball in two-out situations because he can locate the ball so well, which keeps batters guessing. This is why he is able to induce such a high whiff rate and K rate on his fastball.
Here he is inducing a career best 13 strikeouts, including several with his fastball:
All 13 of Max's strikeouts to tie his career-high ⛽️#RepBX | @MaxFried32 pic.twitter.com/or6Dmt9InI
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 19, 2025
While his fastball may feature his highest Out%, his cutter is his best according to PLV:
This pitch grades close to a quality pitch thanks to elite velocity for a cutter. It also gets above average induced vertical break, and horizontal break, making it a difficult pitch to hit. Batters have a .234 BAA on his cutter, and Fried has induced a 50% groundball rate against it.
Fried’s curveball is also pretty insane. It has a .177 BAA, a 42% whiff rate, a 41% K rate, and a 25% putaway rate. It has a 47% GB rate too. His sinker features a -7 degree launch angle, a 24% whiff rate, a 24% putaway rate, and an insane 74% GB rate. These two pitches have factored in significantly to Fried’s 52% GB rate, which is tied for seventh best in baseball among qualified pitchers.
Fried can get batters out in multiple ways with various pitches, and has proven this for multiple seasons. He should be a high target in fantasy drafts for 2026.
