Outfielders will start flying off the board early in drafts, with many of the league’s superstars playing the position. When looking at NFBC ADP, six of the top 12 and 11 of the top 24 are eligible in the outfield. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Mookie Betts make up the elite first-round talent, while Julio Rodriguez, Yordan Alvarez, Jackson Chourio, Jarren Duran, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are all great picks in Round 2.
However, with most fantasy leagues requiring a starting lineup featuring three or five outfielders, you can’t just draft one of the elite guys and then forget about the position. There are also plenty of breakout candidates in the early-middle rounds such as James Wood, Lawrence Butler, Seiya Suzuki, and Riley Greene.
It’s still unlikely to have all of your outfield spots filled by the halfway point in the draft, and there are plenty of sleeper options to take a shot on in the later rounds. These are five outfielders being drafted outside of the top 150 who have a good chance to outperform their ADP.
*All ADP data via NFBC.
Brandon Nimmo – 166.02
Brandon Nimmo had an unexpected 2024 where he retained his power and set a new career high in steals but took a significant step back in batting average.
Usually a standout in batting average and on-base percentage, Nimmo became a liability in both categories in 2024. His BABIP plummeted down to .267 and his xBA sat at a slightly better mark of .244, so bad luck may have played at least some part.
Plantar fasciitis also certainly played a part, as he had been playing through the injury since May. Nimmo recently said that his foot is in a really good spot as Spring Training begins.
He hit the ball harder than he ever had in his career, producing an 89th-percentile average exit velocity of 91.9 mph in 2024. His eye at the plate is also still as good as ever, with his 11.6% walk rate ranking in the 91st percentile.
His current ADP of 166 makes him the 39th outfielder off the board on average, which is way too low. He finished as the 19th most valuable outfielder in roto leagues last season, and that was with him batting .224.
I think 2024 was his floor, and there’s only room to bounce back from here. A .260 batting average with 20 home runs and double-digit steals is a very attainable outcome for Nimmo, and he’ll rack up plenty of RBI while batting behind Lindor, Soto, and Alonso.
Nolan Jones – 248.99
Nolan Jones was one of the biggest busts of the 2024 season. A hot second half in 2023 made him one of the most popular breakout picks, pushing his ADP all the way up to 49. Saying he failed to deliver the value of a fifth-round pick would be an understatement, as he wasn’t even good enough to be rostered in most fantasy leagues. He totaled only three homers and five steals with a .227 batting average over 79 games.
This probably doesn’t sound like encouraging news for someone being called a sleeper, but Jones was never really given a fair shot in 2024. He suffered a lower back strain on April 28 and a knee injury while rehabbing the back injury. He was able to return from the injuries on June 14 but played less than a month before re-aggravating the back injury on July 11. This kept him sidelined until August 20, and he at least showed some promising signs to close out the year.
His power was still nonexistent, but he was able to cut his strikeout rate down by almost seven percent and increase his average by 67 points. He no longer looked completely lost at the plate, and the loss of power can likely be attributed to a combination of rust and trying to regain full strength in his knee and back.
As bad as his 2024 was, it’s worth taking another shot on the potential he showed in the final two months of 2023.
The upside with Jones is clear. There aren’t many hitters who have had a two-month stretch as dominant as that, which is exactly why he was such a sought-after pick last year in fantasy. It’s unrealistic to expect a 30-30 season, but even a 15-15 season would pay off at his current ADP of 248.
At only 26 years old, it’s not out of the question that Jones can break out once again. Playing in Coors Field for half of his games will definitely help, and it’s become a trend for Colorado outfielders to see extreme success out of nowhere. Brenton Doyle carried that torch in 2024, and who’s to say it can’t be Jones again in 2025?
Lars Nootbaar – 262.03
Lars Nootbaar had an uneventful 2024 at first glance, slashing .244/.342/.417 with 39 runs, 12 home runs, 45 RBI, and seven stolen bases in 109 games. He had some sleeper appeal going into last season, and that appeal still stands for 2025. While his totals last year don’t jump off the page, his underlying metrics tell a different story.
He has always had elite plate discipline, and that stood true with a chase rate and walk rate that ranked among the very best in the league. The even more encouraging fact is that he drastically improved his quality of contact metrics. His 49.5% hard-hit rate dwarfs the 37.8% he put up in 2023, and he went from being in the 30th percentile to being in the 91st in that regard.
His expected stats all grade out well too, and are noticeably better than his actual production. His .264 xBA was 24 points higher than his actual average, and his .455 xSLG was 51 points higher than its actual counterpart.
It wasn’t a completely lost season for the outfielder, as he caught fire in September to end the season on a high note.
The injury that is being referred to is a strained oblique that sidelined him for all of June and the first week of July. It’s fair to wonder if the injury recovery could have played a part in his poor performance. The oblique plays a huge part in swinging a bat, and even slight soreness or fear of re-injury could alter swing mechanics. It could have been a case where he didn’t feel 100% again until the final month of the year. He wasn’t doing amazing before the injury either, but it was still better than the abysmal 0.301 OBP and 0.355 SLG he put up in the two months immediately following his return from the injured list.
The only glaring flaw that likely attributed to his poor performance was his 32.2% sweet-spot rate, which shows that he struggled to hit the ball at optimal launch angles. It’s a whole lot easier to fix launch angles than learn how to hit the ball hard or significantly improve plate discipline, two things that Nootbaar has already proven himself capable of. I’m chalking up most of his 2024 failure to a combination of bad luck and injury, and I am excited to see what he can do in 2025. I like him as a sleeper for all league formats, but especially in those that reward OBP. With a current ADP of 262 as the 65th outfielder off the board in NFBC leagues, the upside is worth the extremely low cost.
Matt Wallner – 278.27
Matt Wallner was a trendy sleeper pick heading into 2024, where he promptly crashed and burned in early April. He looked so helpless at the plate that he was sent to the minors, and he didn’t earn a promotion back to the big leagues until July 7. He did his best to make up for lost time though, as he looked great for the remainder of the season.
He will always be prone to strikeouts, but he hits the ball hard enough to be successful even with a strikeout rate north of 30%, as evidenced by his 0.282 batting average. He’s likely due to regress in that matter, but his power will continue to stand out thanks to his elite quality of contact metrics.
Wallner ranks among the elite at almost every quality of contact metric, and the chart above is just a long way of saying that he crushes the baseball.
The caveat here is that most of this production came against right-handed pitchers. The Twins have shown a willingness to run him out against lefties occasionally, as he totaled 44 plate appearances with a 0.184 batting average against them in 2024.
With Max Kepler departing, it leaves Wallner and Trevor Larnach to man the corner outfield spots against righties, although they are both likely to platoon. Interestingly, Wallner has been hitting leadoff in the Twins’ first Spring Training games, so he could see an uptick in at-bats even if he does continue to be in a strict strong-side platoon. It may seem weird, but his OBP would play nicely at the top of the lineup, similar to the Phillies’ approach with Kyle Schwarber.
Wallner is my favorite sleeper outfielder in leagues with daily lineup changes, as you can enjoy his production against righties and then still swap him to your bench when he is out of the lineup. Even in weekly lineup leagues, he offers huge upside for a very low cost. Even in weeks where he is scheduled to face multiple lefties, four games of Wallner against righties are likely going to be more productive than six games from many others in this ADP range.
Michael Conforto – 317.88
Michael Conforto had another solid season in San Francisco, slashing .237/.309/.450 with 20 home runs, 56 runs, and 66 RBI in 130 games. It may be a boring profile, especially for fantasy, but 2025 could be a different story.
The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $17 million contract this offseason which bodes well for his fantasy value. The Dodgers haven’t been wrong about many things in the past decade, and are generally accepted to be the gold standard when it comes to player development and getting the most out of their free-agent signings.
They clearly think Conforto has the chance to improve on his 2024 numbers since they devoted $17 million to him, and his underlying metrics paint him as a very good player, too.
His expected numbers are better than his actual numbers across the board, and he is well above league average in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
The move to Los Angeles will also represent significant lineup and park upgrades. There will be plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs as part of the stacked Dodgers’ lineup, and he should see a boost in home runs now that he doesn’t have to deal with Triples Alley in Oracle Park. According to Statcast’s expected home run tracker, Conforto would have hit 16 home runs if he played every game in Oracle Park, compared to 21 in Dodger Stadium.
There could be platoon concerns if Conforto starts to struggle, but I think he will have the path to everyday playing time as long as he is producing. Although it went against his career norms, he actually performed better against same-sided pitchers last season. He slashed .225/.298/.426 against righties compared to .284/.349/.537 against lefties.
His ADP of 317 is a bit deceiving, as drafts early in the offseason are skewing the results. People have caught on to his sleeper appeal, raising his ADP to 264 in the 140 NFBC drafts that have taken place since February 1. Even at his new price, he offers enough upside to be a great value in drafts.