Want to win your points league? It’s easy: score more points than your opponent. You don’t have to balance your pitcher’s Strikeout potential with a lousy WHIP, or find a bat that can pop 30 homers without batting .220. You just need players that score points – again, more than your opponent.
Wait, it’s that simple? Yes, and you’re welcome.
A points league player will profile differently from Roto, where those ratios are king – and your main points driver is volume. You want the guys at the top of the lineup, soaking up at-bats and getting on base however they can. And you want the innings-eaters, especially those that go unnoticed. We’re not worried about ratios here (unless they stink) – we want volume.
So, here are a few players who might see more or less of that volume than you might expect. Some might already profile a little better (or worse) in points league rankings, but let’s think bigger. These guys should be rising (or falling) at least a round or two above their points-league specific ADP.
The Risers
Francisco Lindor
This week, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza announced that he’s leaning toward having Lindor lead off and Juan Soto will likely bat after him.
Both of these developments are great news. First, Lindor batted .303 atop the lineup last year and .198 everywhere else (mainly second and third). If he leads off all season and plays 160+ games – which he did two of the last three years – he’s got a ceiling of 750 plate appearances.
| Lineup spot | Plate Appearances | Home Runs | 2Bs/3Bs | Batting Average |
| Leadoff | 500 | 26 | 32 | .303 |
| Everywhere else | 189 | 7 | 8 | .198 |
Second, it’s just nice to hit in front of a generational talent who had 45 home runs last year. Lindor should be Top 5 this season in runs scored after scoring 107 last year and 108 the year before, and if he can flirt with 30/30 again your points will come in bunches.
Also, recall that Lindor started 2024 in a 2-for-35 in his first eight games, a slump woeful enough he had family members defending him on social media. And things took a while to rebound as he was still batting under .200 as of May 21st. Odds are he’ll have a smoother start, especially with New York’s glaring media focus aiming more toward Lindor’s new teammate hitting behind him. Lindor is the type of player who does better the less attention is on him.
Lindor’s currently 15th in the NFBC ADP and ESPN has him at 17th in their points league rankings, but I’d argue he’s first-round material.
Josh Naylor
After several productive seasons in Cleveland, Naylor finds himself in the Arizona desert this season on a one-year, $10.9M deal. Breaking out in the power department with 31 home runs last year, Naylor’s average dipped from .308 to .243 but his OBP only dropped by 34 points. In a points league, those 58 walks will matter.
In fact, Naylor’s overall profile is optimal for a first baseman in a points league – decent enough power but doesn’t sell out where he can hurt you. His Statcast line is consistently above average and does well both with bat speed and contact metrics.
Naylor also has shown consistency – last year, his only real rough patch came in May when he batted .186 but still hit eight home runs with 18 RBI.
Naylor did strike out more often last year but at 16.6% he’s still well above league average, especially for a corner infielder. He’s also slated to move up a spot in the lineup, going from the clean-up slot in Cleveland to batting third, which should net at least a few extra plate appearances.
As a Diamondback, Naylor will benefit from hitting behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte and finds himself in a deeper lineup than in Cleveland. Arizona is a sneaky-good team
Naylor will be looking for a big season to capitalize on free agency next year and score a hefty long-term contract. He’ll be motivated, the volume will be there, and the lineup will be better. He’ll face some tough pitching matchups in the NL West, but Naylor is primed for a career year.
Seth Lugo
Anyone who didn’t roster Lugo last year might not believe it, but he finished in the Top 5 for all pitchers in ESPN standard points leagues. That means he was ahead of aces like Corbin Burnes, George Kirby, and everyone else not named Skubal, Wheeler, Gilbert, or Sale.
So how did he have a better season than his much-hyped rotation partner, Cole Ragans? Volume.
Lugo topped 200 innings for the first time in his career, tossing more frames than anyone other than Logan Gilbert. This was a surprise considering he’d never even broken 150, but he’d historically have a few bullpen stints peppered in with his rotation slot. Given that Lugo isn’t a hard thrower (92-93 typically on the four-seam), this should be sustainable.
Lugo also had a great WHIP even if he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (though 181 in 206.2 IP isn’t anything to sneeze at). And check out these other rankings among all other starters last year:
| Category | 2024 line | MLB Ranking |
| Innings | 206.2 | 2nd |
| K’s | 181 | 20th |
| WHIP | 1.09 | 14th |
| BAA | .229 | 20th |
| Wins | 16 | 3rd |
Should a Top-20 pitcher in all these categories be ranked outside the Top 50 starters? I honestly can’t fathom why Lugo is ranked after a slew of SPs only projected for 130-150 innings (and carry way more injury risk). Will he repeat last year’s Top 5 performance? Probably not, but the disrespect ends here. He should be drafted in the Top 150 overall and at least under SP35.
The Fallers
Xander Bogaerts
Those top-of-the-lineup days are over, man. Bogaerts floated up and down the lineup last year, leading off much of the early going. That stopped once the Pads brought on Luis Arraez and Tatis got healthy. Now, second-year phenom Jackson Merrill is poised to bat third and Manny Machado fourth. That means the best Xander could do is bat fifth, but San Diego might prefer to throw lefty-hitting Jake Cronenworth in there to keep the R/L/R/L pattern going. So now, Bogaerts is slotted in the six-hole and his volume takes a dive, not to mention he’ll be hitting ahead the likes of Jason Heyward and Luis Urías.
Bogaerts used to be a value in points leagues, netting 600 or more plate appearances and getting on base at a 35% or higher clip. Last year his OBP dipped to .307 and his OPS fell below .700. Now 32, his average EV has dropped from 90+ in his prime to the 88-mph range, and his walk rate last year was just 6.0% when it’s historically been 9-10%. The barrels weren’t really there last year (dropping to 5.1%, or in the 21st percentile) and while his K-rate has held steady he just wasn’t producing.
Bogaerts has an NFBC ADP of around 150 but the ESPN points rankings like him more, putting him just in the Top 125. Fade, fade, fade.
Colton Cowser
Cowser had a stand-out rookie campaign and nearly snagged the AL Rookie of the Year Award, just getting beat out by Luis Gil. In 561 plate appearances, he swatted 24 homers, chipped in nine bags and had an OPS of .768.
All told, a pretty great season, right? What if I told you that in a standard ESPN points league, Cowser scored exactly one point more than Ernie Clement (in 109 more plate appearances, no less)? Or that he scored fewer points than Ha-Seong Kim, Jesse Winker, and Josh Smith?
Cowser is a former first-rounder and may smash expectations, plus the Camden fences are moving in. But the fence change will benefit righties more than lefties, and Cowser has shown swing-and-miss potential with a 30.7% K-rate (7th percentile in MLB) and a 30.4% whiff rate (16th percentile), which amounted to the fifth-most strikeouts in the American League. If K’s are a negative in your scoring, find a LF with more proven contact skills.
As for volume, my bet is Jordan Westburg starts climbing the order and pushes Cowser down a tick.
All the Dodgers Starters except Ohtani
(This is assuming Ohtani is a dual hitter and pitcher in your league, otherwise, he’d count too if just an SP)
The Dodgers are freakin’ loaded everywhere, especially their rotation. Blake Snell. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Tyler Glasnow. Roki Sasaki. It’s a historic compilation of aces, and that’s even before Ohtani supposedly becomes a pitcher again (slated for somewhere in May).
Manager Dave Roberts has stated that L.A. will open the season with a 5-man rotation (likely with Tony Gonsolin as the fifth starter), but that will swell to a 6-man once Ohtani returns. The problem there is every starter will now pitch at minimum 4-5 fewer games the rest of the way, dropping their potential point total by around 17%. Think about it this way – would you rather have a pitcher who gets 15 points per game start every fifth game, or a pitcher who averages 18 ppg start every sixth game? It’s a trick question, they’d end up with the same total in the end – but I guarantee the first guy is cheaper in your draft.
Additionally, L.A. does not have a good track record with pitcher health – five of their SPs have needed Tommy John in the last two years. Only TWO pitchers amassed more than 90 innings last year, Gavin Stone and Tyler Glasnow. And none threw 150!
And another problem, for those who like competitive baseball and/or own these pitchers: barring massive injuries or underperformance. the Dodgers will clinch a playoff spot sometime in August. Will any pitcher go beyond 5 IP in any start in September, when you need them? I’m passing on all of them unless they come at a massive discount.
Except Ohtani. Draft Ohtani.