Baseball has changed over the past few seasons. Teams are relying more and more on their bullpens, which makes having elite relievers more important than ever.
At their best, a reliever can deliver a few key things to a fantasy team. Saves are the No. 1 priority, but pitchers who can pile up strikeouts while limiting the hits, walks, and runs can also have value.
The best relievers in fantasy — guys like Emmanuel Clase, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader — are capable of doing it all. That’s why they routinely come off the board within the first 50 or 60 picks. The next tier of relievers follows shortly after, followed by a steep dropoff.
Predicting relievers can be challenging from year to year, but there are a few guys who stand out as riskier than others. Let’s dive into five players to consider fading at their current price tags.
Edwin Díaz, New York Mets, 71 ADP
Diaz is widely considered the No. 4 reliever in most fantasy drafts, and he’s being drafted in the same tier as Williams and Hader. That’s logical on the surface. Diaz has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past few seasons, and he plays for a Mets squad that has the potential to win a lot of games. ZiPs projections currently have Diaz pegged for 36 saves, which is the top mark in the league.
Still, there were some cracks in Diaz’s armor last season. He was still pretty dominant, but he wasn’t nearly as good as he was in 2022. Diaz regressed in nearly every metric across the board:
- ERA: 1.31 (2022) vs. 3.52 (2024)
- xERA: 1.69 vs. 2.49
- K/9: 17.13 vs. 14.09
- BB/9: 2.61 vs. 3.35
The big difference was how opposing batters fared against his slider. The pitch was virtually unhittable in 2022. Opposing batters managed just a .114 batting average and a .134 slugging percentage against it. They had a whiff rate of 55.0% and chased at an elevated rate. It was quite possibly the most valuable pitch in all of baseball.
Opposing batters looked much more comfortable against the pitch last season. They didn’t go out of the zone nearly as much, and they made more contact against it when they swung.
That’s enough to make Diaz slightly risky at his current price tag. When batters do make contact against Diaz, they have a tendency to do damage. His barrel rate ranked in the 59th percentile — far below some of the best closers in baseball — and he surrendered 1.17 homers per nine innings. Diaz also occasionally has control issues, which can further compound his struggles.
Is this nitpicking? Probably. Diaz is still really, really good, and he’s an excellent addition to fantasy rosters at the right price. Unfortunately, that doesn’t figure to happen often at his current ADP.
Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres, 115 ADP
Suarez is another player with some concerns at his ADP. He’s coming off the board as the 10th reliever on average, with an ADP inside the top 100 on ESPN, Yahoo, and the NFBC.
Suarez has been an effective reliever since rejoining the MLB in 2022, pitching to an ERA of 2.77 or better in two of three seasons. However, everything broke right for him last year. He outperformed his xERA and expected batting average, and opposing batters managed just a .256 batting average on balls in play. He also stranded more than 80% of opposing baserunners.
What happens if he isn’t quite as fortunate in 2025? The major projection systems all forecast regression for Suarez, who will turn 34 years old before the start of the season. ZiPs has his ERA forecast at 3.76 for this season, while THE BAT has it above 4.00.
The fact that he might not finish the year in San Diego is the biggest concern. He is reportedly available in trade talks, and landing in a situation where he’s not the closer would be disastrous.
If Suarez isn’t piling up saves, he doesn’t bring a ton to the table. He averaged less than a strikeout per inning last season, and his Statcast data was subpar as well. He was in the 35th percentile for hard-hit rate, which is concerning for a pitcher who doesn’t miss a ton of bats.
There are enough red flags here to make Suarez a risk at his current price tag.
Kirby Yates, Los Angeles Dodgers, 188 ADP
The Dodgers are unfair at this point. They have an embarrassment of riches at every position across the diamond, and relief pitcher is no exception. They have three guys who could be closers on a handful of teams: Yates, Tanner Scott, and Blake Treinen. That doesn’t even include guys like Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Alex Vesia, who have the potential to be elite in their own right.
Yates is coming off a phenomenal campaign with the Rangers last year. He pitched to a 1.86 xERA and a .145 xBA, both of which ranked in the 100th percentile. If he were going to be the Dodgers’ everyday closer, he would be a Tier 1 option.
However, that’s not going to be the case. It’s sounding more and more likely that Scott will get the majority of the save opportunities out of this bullpen, which diminishes Yates’ value significantly. Yates will likely still get a handful of opportunities — especially for a squad with the talent to win 110+ games — but it could be a struggle to get to double-digit saves.
Unfortunately, even the best setup men don’t provide a ton of value in most leagues. Unless you’re playing in a league that counts holds, Yates is someone to avoid at his current price tag.
Ben Joyce, Los Angeles Angels, 240 ADP
Joyce fits a similar description to Yates. He’s someone who has the potential to close, but it doesn’t appear to be in the cards for 2025. The Angels just brought in Kenley Jansen to serve as their closer, which leaves Joyce in a set-up role for the upcoming season.
It’s tempting to say that Joyce has the talent to overtake an aging Jansen at some point. He throws harder than just about everyone in baseball. His average fastball velocity was an absurd 102.4 miles per hour, and he touched 105.5 miles per hour last season. That’s the third-fastest pitch ever recorded in the Statcast era, trailing only Aroldis Chapman.
However, the blazing fastball belies some otherwise mediocre numbers. Specifically, he struck out just 23.2% of opposing batters last season. That’s a well-below-average mark for a reliever, let alone one who throws more than 100 miles per hour. Joyce will likely improve a bit in that department this season, but he has a long way to go to join the top relievers in baseball.
Jansen is a legendary closer who is likely headed to Cooperstown. He needs 53 saves to get to 500 for his career, and the Angels figure to give him every chance possible to do so. He still had a 3.24 xERA last season, which was identical to Joyce’s mark.
If Joyce is stuck in a setup role, he doesn’t do enough to warrant rostering. His ERA projections are in the mid-3.00s, he’s not an elite strikeout arm, and he plays for one of the worst teams in baseball. Let someone else succumb to the sexiness of his fastball.
Jordan Romano, Philadelphia Phillies, 263 ADP
Unlike the previous two options, it’s easy to see a scenario where Romano gets some opportunities to close games for the Phillies. Their bullpen underwent a massive change in the offseason, with Jeff Hoffman headed to Toronto and Carlos Estévez off to Kansas City. That leaves Romano, Orion Kerkering, and José Alvarado as the team’s likely high-leverage options in 2025.
Of the group, Romano has the most experience as a closer. He served as the Blue Jays’ primary closer from 2021 to 2023, saving nearly 100 games in the process. He was an All-Star in 2022 and 2023, and he posted an ERA of 2.90 or better in four straight seasons.
However, the wheels came off for Romano last season. He pitched just 13.2 innings before suffering an injury, and he posted a dreadful 6.59 ERA in those outings. It’s not like he was simply unlucky, either: his 7.60 xERA was actually worse.
Despite his track record of success, the Blue Jays decided to non-tender Romano this offseason. That’s a big red flag. The Phillies scooped him up quickly, but after undergoing elbow surgery, it’s possible that he’s not going to be the same pitcher.
Conversely, Kerkering is young, is coming off a fantastic season, and already has familiarity with the manager. Even if he doesn’t start the year at closer, he should keep Romano on a short leash. He’s also coming off the board much later, so he’s the more appealing option.